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New Jersey Devils signed Jack Hughes (8 Years / $8,000,000 AAV)

Was this a good signing?
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May 30, 2022 at 3:06 p.m.
#101
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Quoting: Devil
"Virtually no chance of becoming an elite 1C"


Quoting: CD282
So he played 49 games and scored well. Give yourself a pat on the back.

He's still not an elite 1C.


Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Mister Jack Hughes when compared to all Centers that played >900min this past season:

19th CF% Rel
31st FF% Rel
26th SF% Rel
25th GF% Rel
21st xGF% Rel
14th xGF% Rel
14th HDCF% Rel
12th HDGF% Rel

He could see a bit of a positive PDO correction (0.971) which may bump his stats a touch but he only starts 15.6% of his shifts in the defensive zone.

I think CD282 is currently right by-and-large: Hughes isn't an elite center in the vein of the games' best BUT he's very much a top-line pivot in the NHL and an emerging offensive superweapon. Whether or not he develops an actual two-way game is yet to be determined but there's very much a possibility that he becomes offensively elite much in the same vein as Patrick Kane (gosh what an apt draft-day comparison that was).

He owes much of his success last season to Jesper Bratt, actually. If you look at Hughes' stats away from Bratt he was essentially average on a poor, non-playoff team.

Bratt with Hughes

Even offensively he owes Bratt: he scored 2.95 P/60 with Bratt and 2.35 P/60 without him. Bratt, on the other hand, scored just as well with and without Hughes (2.95 with, 2.89 without), while posting better defensive metrics away from Hughes. As you can see in the link I posted, Bratt was better alone that Hughes was alone by a good margin.

Also, Hughes is poor defensively and on faceoffs. I'm sure he'll get better over time, but at this point he's not driving offense at an elite rate and there's nothing else about his game to write home about.

He's good on the powerplay I guess. That's something.
May 30, 2022 at 3:13 p.m.
#102
Speak of the Devil
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Mister Jack Hughes when compared to all Centers that played >900min this past season:

19th CF% Rel
31st FF% Rel
26th SF% Rel
25th GF% Rel
21st xGF% Rel
14th xGF% Rel
14th HDCF% Rel
12th HDGF% Rel

He could see a bit of a positive PDO correction (0.971) which may bump his stats a touch but he only starts 15.6% of his shifts in the defensive zone.

I think CD282 is currently right by-and-large: Hughes isn't an elite center in the vein of the games' best BUT he's very much a top-line pivot in the NHL and an emerging offensive superweapon. Whether or not he develops an actual two-way game is yet to be determined but there's very much a possibility that he becomes offensively elite much in the same vein as Patrick Kane (gosh what an apt draft-day comparison that was).


Im not saying Hughes is an elite 1C right now but CD282 said he had "virtually no chance" which is pretty stupid to say about a 21 year old 1st overall pick
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May 30, 2022 at 3:46 p.m.
#103
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: Devil
which is pretty stupid to say about a 21 year old 1st overall pick


I inherently disagree with this part.

In order to drum up clicks and views, the media circus surrounding each year's draft over-amplifies the spectacle surrounding the players at the top of each draft class. Names like Hughes, Lafreniere, and Wright are being unfairly compared to names like MacKinnon, McDavid, and Matthews as part of that over-amplification. If I look back on the top-3 picks from the last decade and do my best to objectively rank them, Hughes sits anywhere between 8th and 12th nestled in with Dahlin, Svechnikov, and Laine while behind (in order) McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Draisaitl, Ekblad, Barkov, Heiskanen, and Eichel. The top three on this list are bonafide generational talents, a genuine superstar in Draisaitl (has he earned the same kind of praise as Connor, Nate, and Auston?), and four very good players. Half of that list aren't first-overall picks.

Realistically, how many "elite" NHL players do you think there are currently in the league today? What do you mean by elite? I would argue that there are no more than 15 of them in the NHL right now.

Unless Hughes becomes an overnight sensation next year then I think it's safe to say he's missed the "elite" boat and is more apt to find himself in the crowd of "very good player". It's not a knock on Hughes at all, merely a re-calibration of what we were sold to something more fitting of what we've gotten.
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May 30, 2022 at 5:15 p.m.
#104
Go leafs go
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Can we talk about how it's a perfect like to dislike ratio.

If I had a strong opinion on this signing I'd vote, but I don't. Try and win me over.
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May 30, 2022 at 5:31 p.m.
#105
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
while behind (in order) McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Draisaitl, Ekblad, Barkov, Heiskanen, and Eichel. The top three on this list are bonafide generational talents, a genuine superstar in Draisaitl (has he earned the same kind of praise as Connor, Nate, and Auston?), and four very good players.

IMO, yes. He's been a top-5 player in the league for 4 years now. He's probably the most consistent scorer in the league.
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Nov. 30, 2022 at 1:04 a.m.
#106
Speak of the Devil
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1 year anniversary of the Jack Hughes extension

Hughes stats after signing: 71 games, 36 goals, 44 assists, 80 points
And he's only 21...

I would say this signing is looking decent
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Jan. 16, 2023 at 2:05 p.m.
#107
feelsbadman
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is this a good contract yet or na
Jan. 17, 2023 at 6:49 a.m.
#108
WentWughes
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Quoting: hugeballer
is this a good contract yet or na


Obviously yes. He finally transitioned those elite advanced numbers to points.
Jan. 17, 2023 at 8:07 a.m.
#109
do not Devil my ass
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Quoting: hugeballer
is this a good contract yet or na

Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
Obviously yes. He finally transitioned those elite advanced numbers to points.

His market value is about twice that of his current AAV, according to Dom at the Athletic.



Stupidly good contract for the Devils.
Jan. 17, 2023 at 8:10 a.m.
#110
WentWughes
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Quoting: Tintin
His market value is about twice that of his current AAV, according to Dom at the Athletic.



Stupidly good contract for the Devils.


Yeah, I don't believe in his worth according to that model. He's easily a $12 Million dollar player though. Absolute steal for the Devils.
Mar. 13, 2023 at 12:55 p.m.
#111
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Quoting: Chenz69
LOL What an overpayment! Good luck with that one.... The NJ slewfooters will be loving his deal in year 5 when he has more IL visits than 50 point seasons.


Visits to Illinois: 1
50-point seasons: 2

So far, so good
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Apr. 14, 2023 at 2:03 a.m.
#112
Speak of the Devil
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Quoting: CD282
So he played 49 games and scored well. Give yourself a pat on the back.

He's still not an elite 1C.


Is he an elite 1C now?
May 20, 2023 at 10:30 p.m.
#113
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
I wonder how this gets compared to Suzuki's contract. Everyone said Suzuki's was awful and they are very comparable


Considering Jack is 10x the player it will be looked on quite favourably
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May 20, 2023 at 10:31 p.m.
#114
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I inherently disagree with this part.

In order to drum up clicks and views, the media circus surrounding each year's draft over-amplifies the spectacle surrounding the players at the top of each draft class. Names like Hughes, Lafreniere, and Wright are being unfairly compared to names like MacKinnon, McDavid, and Matthews as part of that over-amplification. If I look back on the top-3 picks from the last decade and do my best to objectively rank them, Hughes sits anywhere between 8th and 12th nestled in with Dahlin, Svechnikov, and Laine while behind (in order) McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, Draisaitl, Ekblad, Barkov, Heiskanen, and Eichel. The top three on this list are bonafide generational talents, a genuine superstar in Draisaitl (has he earned the same kind of praise as Connor, Nate, and Auston?), and four very good players. Half of that list aren't first-overall picks.

Realistically, how many "elite" NHL players do you think there are currently in the league today? What do you mean by elite? I would argue that there are no more than 15 of them in the NHL right now.

Unless Hughes becomes an overnight sensation next year then I think it's safe to say he's missed the "elite" boat and is more apt to find himself in the crowd of "very good player". It's not a knock on Hughes at all, merely a re-calibration of what we were sold to something more fitting of what we've gotten.


L bozo
May 20, 2023 at 10:33 p.m.
#115
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: jpsnow13
People who complained about Suzuki's contract because "we only player 100 games and proved nothing yet" better be choking on this one.

55 NHL career games. 64M. Jeez.


Hughes: superstar
Suzuki: 2C
May 20, 2023 at 10:34 p.m.
#116
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: Missouri
Overpay. He's highly overrated. Hasn't became the Franchise player he was expected to be when drafted.


Quoting: Knuckl3s
Could Hughes and Hischier be Tom Fitzgerald's undoing perhaps? Also, I think the Suzuki deal is much more favourable than this


Quoting: mondo
People here were mostly fine with the Suzuki contract. Think the consensus on Hughes' contract is more divided.

Right now I'm more sold on Suzuki being worth 7 million than Hughes being worth 8 million, but Hughes has a higher ceiling.


Quoting: draft_em_sign_em_trade_em
Even with the 8 yr deal, would Hughes be able to see the rebuild get completed ?


Quoting: sammy1414
he's worth a 3year bridge deal 4mil per year


Quoting: worldwidesensei
20 career goals. Career high 11 goals. = 8yr $64mm contact. Wow.

Huge risk that this blows up in NJ's face.


Quoting: Chenz69
LOL What an overpayment! Good luck with that one.... The NJ slewfooters will be loving his deal in year 5 when he has more IL visits than 50 point seasons.


Quoting: Grievous
Massive overpay. A sharp GM would have done $3.5 x 3 yrs for his efforts to date. Hopefully it is a value deal for the Devils by year 3 or 4.

One thing for sure, from Hughes' standpoint he's getting a value deal for his Agent.


Quoting: jasondomitrovic
I like the kid but based on his production this is an overpayment by far. They are paying him what they think he might produce which is not smart at this time. It's like Marner all over again.


Quoting: Kirja
lol that must be joke right? I know, he is N.1draft, but to this day he looks more like bust, than win. Definitelly not proved himself. Transition contract would suit him much better.


Quoting: Kirja
lol that must be joke right? I know, he is N.1draft, but to this day he looks more like bust, than win. Definitelly not proved himself. Transition contract would suit him much better.


So many fantastic Jack Hughes takes
May 20, 2023 at 10:37 p.m.
#117
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: CD282
The problem here is that there are literally hundreds of players who appear to have "all the tools" at 20, very few of them pan out to elite 1C, which is what they're paying Hughes to be. It's a massive risk, and NJ took all of the risk. Ergo, it's a bad contract.

Terrible contract, totally not one of the best in hockey
Quoting: ColonelX
Suzuki when signed to his 8 year extension: 0.64 PPG, plays good two way hockey. THIS IS AWFUL FOR MONTREAL BAHAHAHAHA

Hugues when signed to his 8 year extension: 0.45 PPG, plays good two way hockey. GG LET'S GO, WE SO STACKED.

NJ CF fanbase in a nutshell.


Bc hughes clearly had elite upside

Quoting: CD282
He has virtually no chance of becoming an "elite 1C" in the vein of McDavid, Draisaitl, Crosby, MacKinnon, Barkov, Aho, Malkin, Matthews etc.

I just don't see any scenario where this contract could be a "steal". If he hits his ceiling it would be considered fair pay. He's never going to be listed in the top 8 or so centers in the league.


is he a top 8 center yet??
May 21, 2023 at 2:44 a.m.
#118
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Quoting: dgibb10
So many fantastic Jack Hughes takes


Clearly it is a value deal. It was signed just under 2 months into what was a pretty good 3rd season, which at the end would probably have gotten him what he ended up signing for. Good for everyone.

Thanks for sharing the hindsight.
May 21, 2023 at 8:38 a.m.
#119
Bedard23
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Someone make an archive of all these ****ty takes (the people who thought this was an overpay)
May 21, 2023 at 12:37 p.m.
#120
WentWughes
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Quoting: dgibb10
Considering Jack is 10x the player it will be looked on quite favourably


When this deal was signed, Hughes's analytics were amazing, but his production wasn't there. Some players it translates and some players it doesn't, which is where the risk was. Glad to see it pay off.
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May 21, 2023 at 2:23 p.m.
#121
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
When this deal was signed, Hughes's analytics were amazing, but his production wasn't there. Some players it translates and some players it doesn't, which is where the risk was. Glad to see it pay off.


Meh, Hughes always had an elite projection (no player with his draft year profile has ever NOT became a star).
May 23, 2023 at 7:44 p.m.
#122
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One of CapFriendly's moderators took offense to me calling out the Tage Thompson haters for the contract he signed.

I'll gladly eat crow on calling this contract out. To my credit, I just said it was a huge risk. Clearly those in the know, knew. Round of applause to them. I'm a big Hughes fan now.
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May 25, 2023 at 10:50 a.m.
#123
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Quoting: dgibb10

is he a top 8 center yet??

No. He had a very good season but needs to do it several more times before he can be considered a top center.
May 25, 2023 at 10:54 a.m.
#124
I Love J Boqvist
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Quoting: CD282
No. He had a very good season but needs to do it several more times before he can be considered a top center.


Oh so you're doubling down on your terrible take and proving you actually don't watch hockey. I'd love for you to name these 8 Cs who are apparently better than jack hughes?
Sep. 27, 2023 at 10:31 a.m.
#125
Leafs going to Leafs
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Quoting: Devil
Is he an elite 1C now?


Depends, what do you define as an 'elite 1C'? BC their are a lot of ways of doing so... Technically, I can consider McDavid not an 'elite 1C' if those boundaries are focused around defence and face-offs, or McKinnon and Matthews based on health or Draisaitl in terms of even strength play or stats without McDavid... But I can also include some very obscure guys like Jordan Staal if I'm focusing on the defensive aspects for example...

So, what are your classification in terms of an 'elite 1C'?
 
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