Quoting: Marcheesy
Beau’s overall game is streaky, not just his goal scoring. Where do you see these stats that be drives play at both ends? Give me stats, please show me. Beau had 2 goals in the first 22 games, then scored 6 in the next 7 games, then 7 games without a goal, and then 7 goals in the last 11 games. Where in that does it give you confidence that Beau will be a 30 goal scorer?
it's amazing how isles fans lack the ability to understand simple statistics/analytics. If you read through this article , you'll see that Jfresh's model has his two way impact "20-22" so far is nearly identical. Beau's overall game is never streaky, just his goal scoring. Did you know with the exception of the truly elite players, most goal scorers are streaky, even ones that play on the top line and score 30 goals.
Last season Beauvillier was on pace for 26 goals averaging 16:24 of ice time , which is low end 2nd line minutes. Basic math will tell you if he got the 18 -19 min like he deserves he would have scored at a 30 goal pace. This season Beauvillier is shooting 7.1% through 21 games despite generating offense at a high level. The last 3 seasons here are Beau's shooting % : 11.5%, 13.6%, 13.8%. Have you ever heard of regression to the mean? Beauvillier is still averaging 2 shots a game so it's a guarantee that the goals will start going in. If he wasn't averaging 2 goals a game that would mean his offense is declining.
Not only does Jfresh's model have his overall game as nearly identical, but Hockey viz isolated impact which isolates a players impact from his teammates show that Beauvillier is the strongest offensive play driver on the team this season other from Nelson. His xgf/60 is "+7" which means that Beau generates offense 7% better than league average. His defensive impact is "-1" which means that Beau is 1% better than league average.
Look at Eberle who is averaging 18 min and is on pace for 39 goals on an expansion team. TOI matters.
https://twitter.com/pasha_in_russia/status/1470097131989921794?s=20