Edited Dec. 16, 2021 at 1:34 a.m.
Quoting: CMcAvoy73
Ottawa wanted to re-sign stone…but he wanted to explore other opportunities. Sounds like hertl is at least thinking that way.
This is at least an attempt to answer the question. Here’s what i said to the other guy in this thread, before he just went quiet, aside from cherry picking at random spots https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/536753?post_id=2845376 :
“Almost like i did that to prove a point. But lets take big sample sizes, shall we? In the 5 years prior to stone being traded, he played at a 72.4 point pace, all while being the superior defensive, and physical player. The guy was a legitimate selke candidate as a winger, which is very rare. Top 15 in hart voting, i think he had a couple runner ups for the selke.
Now let’s take Hertl’s last five years. We’ll include this season, as it is rather favorable for Hertl. 63.9 point pace (good for 63rd in the league for those with 100+ games over that stretch). Not one vote for any award. Not a single 5th place vote for the selke, or the hart, or anything.
So why should hertl get more than stone? Oh, and stone was younger, and had contract discussions prior to the trade.“
So, here are the main issues here:
1. Stone was clearly better, and far more valuable.
2. Contract talks had taken place before the trade, which is extremely rare.
3. Stone was younger.
4. The “Ottawa got fleeced,” argument holds a little water, but not much. Whether or not it was fleecing, it changed the market. When Matthews got his massive second deal, a bunch of GMs were probably pissed, because despite Dubas getting fleeced, it changed the market (maybe more so with Marner). The market will get re-set again, and I suppose there is a remote possibility that there’s some rare bidding war, and an unprecedented price for a player of Hertl’s caliber is paid, but I rather doubt it.
The first and a prospect price tag is far. If it’s a true top prospect, I don’t think a first is going with it. It’s likely that there will be half a dozen teams offering a first, and a kicker in forms of either another pick, or a prospect, and San Jose will be deciding between the kicker they like the most.
everything you spoke about above draws merit save for a few points.
#1 Dubas was fleeced almost as bad as Boston was in the Thornton trade, and that’s hard to argue!
#2 yes stone is a very good player but he isn’t far and away better defensively, yes he is better but Hertl is also an above average defender and 2way player.
#3 Hertl is a center and stone is a winger and Centers do tend to be valued more in trade markets.
#4 when it comes to awards typically west coast players have a harder time winning due to east coast bias, but saying that i am a little shocked hertl hasn’t garnered at least a few votes for some of those awards.
and with trade comparisons I would use more current trades as a bar to judge his value by. with that assessment I think it’s fair to assume sharks would get more than Arizona did for Dvorak but less than Eichel. Dvorak got a 1st and a 2nd
Eichel got Tuch a top 6 forward, Kregs a former 1st and a B level prospect, as well as a 1st and a 2nd.
because Hertl is on an expiring contract his value should be closer to Dvorak than Eichel IMO. so that would be about 2-1sts, or a 1st and a 1st round value prospect.
The asking might scare away multiple teams, but there is also the possibility of retention for cap strapped teams to help increase his value.
at the end of the day neither of us know 100% what his value is and this is pure speculation on both of our posts.
But for reference this is the rumor of what the sharks are looking for from sharks insider Kevin Kurtz who has been fairly accurate with his insider information.
Along with a first-round pick, they would have to get at least one potential high-end prospect in return, too, and preferably someone who could play NHL games ahead of or along the same timeline as guys like William Eklund, Thomas Bordeleau and some of the other prospects who are around 19 or 20 years old (in other words, probably two years away). In a perfect world that player is probably a center, but considering Ryan Merkley’s declining stock and Brent Burns’ advancing age, a defenseman might be just as welcomed.