nashville wont do that habs trade

Honestly, I haven’t seen Drouin play. Is he worth less than that?

That isn’t nearly enough incentive for Montréal to just accrue some cap space, and the habs aren’t trading Drouin anyways.

We seem to have two different opinions

no one will give a first for him. he's skilled offensively but a one-way player. his offseason issues likely make him unappealing to a playoff team. i don't see many teams being interested at $5.5m

They might.

Gorton doesn't have the same attachment to Drouin - MB counldn't admit he made a mistake.

I mean one of us might be the person who loves Drouin the most on the site, and the other is the person who hates Drouin the most on the site, so I’m not surprised.

Perhaps they’d be interested at that price with 50% retention?

i just can't see him getting a first. i don't see there demand there.

What offseason issues?

Last season he had a mental health issue, which was sparked from being touted the French savior in Montreal. He won't have to worry about that anywhere else in the league.

And to be fair, That Weber retirement cap recapture is worth this package. Unless Predators want to be dog crap for the next 5 years. Gorton has no allegiance to Drouin, as another poster said. Even less to Weber if he isnt an active player.

Drouin had insomnia and was undiagnosed for years. It's mentally and physically draining, which amplifies the pressure, but it's a manageable condition. Not something that should affect his value.

The Weber recapture is worth a pick. Which pick is dependent on when (if) he retires.
Nashville can cross their fingers and hope he doesn't retire early and it will cost them nothing.
If they don't want to risk recapture, or want to reduce the impact, they should trade for him. If he retires even one year early, they get a cap hit of roughly $7M. If they sit on his contract prior to that, they could be off the hook before then.
The potential damage depends on their projections, but with the cap remaining relatively flat, that could be a significant impediment at a bad time.
While he's on LTIR, they don't even have to pay him or count his current cap hit, so I'd say the peace of mind is worth a 2nd or equivalent player in trade. Any more and they'll likely take their chances.

his insomnia/mental health offseason issue which led him to miss a stanley cup run playoffs. no way to know if it will return. no competitor is going to pay full price with that uncertainty.

weber retires or he doesn't, the league either steps in or it doesn't. it wont matter what team weber plays for in either case the preds get hit with recapture. preds don't want to pay weber, he's a negative asset to them.

They don't have to pay Weber and the recapture is reduced for every year they have him, since his salary is now lower than his cap hit.

I think there are ways that Habs could force or entice Weber to retire (hired on as scout officially or other position). Marleau cost the Leafs a 1st for 1 year at $6M. Gorton is not handcuffed to Weber, or any "handshake" deals with Nashville. I think he could get far more than a 1st, but its likely a summer move.



See Ricochetii post...



https://www.ontheforecheck.com/2020/7/7/21316247/cba-changes-may-ease-shea-weber-salary-cap-recapture-penalty-fears-for-nashville-predators-for-now

Retires this summer: 4 years remaining: $6,142,857 per year.
Retires next summer: 3 years remaining: $7,857,143 per year, plus 1 year at $999,999.
Retires the summer after: 2 years remaining: $7,857,143 per year, plus one year at $7,857,143, plus 1 year at $999,999.
Retires the summer after: 1 year remaining: $7,857,143 per year, plus two years at $7,857,143, plus 1 year at $999,999.

Habs can try to entice/force Weber to retire. With $6M, $3M, $2M, $1M salary remaining, that time is coming. When he took the contract everyone laughed because "its structured that he is clearly retiring early..."

If Habs are paying his Salary AND having to do Cap gymnastics to fit him in prior to Game 1 every yeah, and the obvious position Nashville is in, it makes no sense they hold onto his contract, and its far too big of a risk for Nashville to roll the dice....

Recapture gets worse with every year. Nashville's SB Nation group broke it down last summer.

Information you shared seems to be correct.
The important point is that Nashville "owes" $24M regardless of when he retires.
The only way to decrease that amount is for them to re-acquire his contract.
The penalty will be reduced by the difference between his cap hit and actual salary, for each year they retain his contract.

I'm rounding the numbers for simplicity ...
If they keep him for 22-23 ($8M - $3M in actual salary), the recapture is $19M
23-24 ($8M - $1M) = $12M penalty
24-25 ($8M - $1M) = $5M penalty
25-26 ($8M - $1M) = penalty gone.

So you can see, the time to acquire him is at the end of this season, if they want his cap hit to expire at the same time as his contract.
However, if he retires early, they still benefit from the reduction for each year they own his contract.

Weber retires after 22-23 = $6,33 For 3 years vs. $8M for 3 years
After 23-24 = $6M For 2 years vs. $8M for 2 years + $8M through the 26-27 season
After 24-25 = $5M for 1 year vs. $8M for 1 year + $8M through the 27-28 season
After 25-26 = $0 vs. $8M through the 28-29 season.

Aside from those obvious benefits, they currently don't have to count his cap hit at all, as he's on LTIR.
This is a perfect situation for them to get off almost completely free of any repercussions from the contract.

It's understandable why people may not understand how it works, but hopefully this information, along with the link you shared, helps with that understanding.
How much would you pay another team to take a contract that will save you $8M in cap space for multiple years? You can look at this similarly.
Of course if you hold them hostage, they are more likely to risk it, but any reasonable offer should be considered.

weber still gets paid when he's injured the question is weather the contract is insured or not.

the penalty maxes out at $7.8m a year which nashville isn't spending now anyway.

Yeah, Nashville avoids the whole situation if they rebuild

It's still only a negligible amount if he's uninsured, which I feel like we would have heard about by now if it wasn't.
See my above post. Is Nashville going to stay $8M under the cap for the next 7 years?

probably. they aren't a contender.

Beg pardon. 1st in central

sure if you think they can keep that up in the long run.