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We Need 2 Top 9 Forwards

Created by: Alfie11
Team: 2021-22 Calgary Flames
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 14, 2022
Published: Jan. 14, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
We're a good defensive team and don't score enough. 4 guys have 59.8% of our goals. That's literally more top heavy than Edmonton (their top 4 scorers have 59.4% of their goals). True contenders like Colorado and Florida are getting ~40% of their goals from their top 4 scorers. Let's look at why this is a little bit.
Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk have been elite at both ends of the ice. No complaints here.
Mangiapane is having a career year, he's been everything we could have asked for and more.
Lucic has 8 goals which is fantastic (about 2-3 more than I would have liked by this point), but he's been our only secondary scoring, and ideally he plays 4LW.
Monahan, Backlund, and Dube only have 4 goals apiece, and Coleman's only at 6 goals. If 20/15/15/20 is a reasonable expectation (and honestly I would hope for more) for these guys over a full season (respectively), they should be at 8/6/6/8 not 4/4/4/6. Their respective iXG in all situations is 6.17/7.42/6.89/9.49. This is the root of our problem. These guys have scored around 12 goals under expected (70 goals over 82 games = 29 combined goals right now, they have 18, and they have a combined iXG of 29.97). We need more scoring from the middle of the lineup, particularly these players, who are relied upon to provide offense.
Pitlick has 0 goals, and only 1.55 iXG. For a guy getting 3rd line minutes, this is unacceptable. He's been fine defensively, but that shouldn't cut it. He should be 4RW max, but I think Lewis has been fine there, and prefer him over Pitlick honestly. Lewis has 3 goals and 4.47 iXG, which is pretty decent for a 4th liner, not gonna complain about that when he's a good energy guy and great PKer.
Ritchie sucks, and should never get top 9 minutes again. I don't even like him at 4RW. I think he's probably our 14th best forward as it stands right now. He's been hurt most of the year, but still has 0 goals and 1.89 iXG, but if you watch him out there, you don't expect him to ever score. He's an offensive black hole, only good for being physical. He doesn't even kill penalties.
Ruzicka I would like to see get more ice, and Richardson is acceptable at 4C too, these guys aren't affecting games very often though. They chip in every now and then which is nice, but that's neither bad nor good.
Andersson has 0 goals in 34 games. For a PP1 QB who plays 22.5 minutes per night, this is unacceptable. He should be around 5 goals at LEAST at this point, almost every PP1 QB in the league has at least 3 goals total. Only 6 guys have played more PP time than Andersson this year and have 0 goals (4 of them still have 3+ goals, the other two are Chabot, who has 1 goal, with the same amount of assists as Andersson, on a significantly worse team, in less GP, and the other is Quinn Hughes, who has 2 goals and 28 total points lol). Among 24 D with 85+ minutes of PPTOI this year, he has the least amount of points (he's at 101mins PPTOI btw). He has been excellent overall, but his lack of concrete production is beginning to be concerning. He should regress positively and start producing more given how he impacts the game offensively in general, and the quality/quantity of PP time he's given, but we've been saying that for at least 2 years now. And he only has an iXG of 2.47, I'm really not sure how anyone with as much opportunity as he's given has that low expected goals. Regardless, going from Giordano (regularly ~15 goals per year) to nothing from our PP1 QB is a steep drop off. I think Kylington should probably get an extended look there, he's been great this year, and has the most goals (4), 2nd most assists (15, 1 less than Andersson), and most points (19) among our D, but Andersson does need to produce more even if he gets taken off PP1. Our PP has been run effectively by a LHD for years, so no matter how hard Andersson's slapshot is, maybe Kylington is the right answer for producing maximum offense there.
Hanifin at 3 goals and Tanev at 1 is about what I would have expected, iXG says Hanifin should have 1 extra, so that's fine.
Our 3rd pair provides no offense, and isn't even good at moving the puck. Zadorov especially can't do anything with the puck. Sometimes it seems like he's more likely to pass to the other team than our own guy, he just kills any shot we have at moving up the ice. I really think that the PK isn't gonna suddenly become terrible if we throw Hanifin out there to kill a penalty once in a while (right now our PK pairs are Gudbranson-Tanev and Zadorov-Andersson), so I would like to see Zadorov replaced with Valimaki, or even Mackey. Both of those guys are puck movers, Valimaki is decent defensively (he was trusted to kill penalties last season), and infinitely better than Zadorov at moving the puck to counter attack and producing any sort of offense.

Overall here's how I see our ideal lines this season:
Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk
Mangiapane-x-x
Coleman-Backlund-x
Lucic-Monahan-Lewis

Dube is one x (any position, preferably not 2C, but he might have to be). Coleman/Mangiapane can play either wing. So what we need to do up front is fill in the last two x slots, preferably with guys capable of scoring at least 20 goals each. Clearly Ritchie and Pitlick are not the solution as middle six forwards. So here's the list of guys that might be available at the TDL that could play 2C, or middle six wing. Don't tell me they're not available because the team is doing too good, if I think the team is definitely a legit playoff team I've excluded players from them (e.g. Forsberg). These guys also would obviously have various prices, generally ranging from 1st+top prospect to mid-round pick.

Could play on the second line (1-2): Rakell, D. Brown, Hertl, Labanc, R. Smith (if Martinez/Patches/Eichel all return, although it's pretty doubtful Vegas sends him here), Kessel, P. Kane (probably out of our price range lol), Pavelski, Domi, Giroux, Olofsson, Toffoli, C. Brown
Third liners: (0-1): Donskoi, Jarnkrok, Radulov, Namestnikov

On D, I think our ideal lines look like this:
Hanifin-Andersson
Kylington-Tanev
x-Gudbranson

x is currently Zadorov. I think it should be Valimaki or Mackey, and I think we should give them a try now, to experiment before the TDL. Ideally the inability of the 3rd pair to move the puck is resolved from within by one of our two young, talented LD that are both NHL ready, but should probably be resolved at the TDL if they aren't the solution (like Tampa brought in Savard to solidify their 3rd pair last year, we should look for a 4/5 puck-moving D to pair with Gudbranson).

Available trade chips: Pitlick, Ritchie, any prospect outside of Coronato/Pelletier/Wolf, all picks (Zary only available for a good top six C with term, like Hertl if he comes with an extension)

TLDR: we need two middle six players that can score, and a puck-moving 3LD (ideally found from within), and should put Kylington on PP1. Idk how much deadline cap space we have so I went over the cap and don't care (risk waiving Richardson or even Zadorov if needed, or get someone to retain more on Hertl for a mid-round pick).
Trades
1.
CGY
  1. Hertl, Tomas ($2,812,500 retained)
Additional Details:
idk if we need that much retention
SJS
  1. Gawdin, Glenn
  2. Kuznetsov, Yan
  3. 2022 1st round pick (CGY)
Additional Details:
FYI-Kuznetsov is a solid left shot defensive defenseman. Might be a good partner for Merkley on the 2nd pair one day if the Sharks ever get rid of Burns/Vlasic lol. Gawdin is ready to step in as a 2-way 4C, he's kind of a 13th forward type guy right now. Probably not much more upside, than solid 4C, but he's too good for the AHL. Might need a change of scenery to get him going in the NHL (seems like Sutter prefers Richardson at 4C, or putting Dube at C and playing Monahan at 4C).

Can replace Kuzy/Gawdin with Zary if he comes with a reasonable extension.
2.
MTL
  1. Kinnvall, Johannes
  2. Pitlick, Tyler
  3. 2022 2nd round pick (CGY)
  4. 2023 2nd round pick (CGY)
Additional Details:
Idk if Toffoli's worth a 1st tbh. Couple 2nds and a decent RD prospect (not sure if he'll be a 3rd pair PP2 guy, solid 2nd pair offensive defenseman, or meh in the AHL and go back to Sweden. He was elite in the SHL but has been hurt all year, probably the first option is closest to reality). Might be able to swap Pitlick on for a late pick idk
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
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2023
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2024
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$75,650,000$0$0$5,850,000
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$6,750,000$6,750,000
LW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$4,850,000$4,850,000
C, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$7,000,000$7,000,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$2,425,000$2,425,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$2,812,500$2,812,500
C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$2,125,000$2,125,000
RW, LW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$4,900,000$4,900,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$5,350,000$5,350,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$2,300,000$2,300,000
LW, RW, C
RFA - 3
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$5,250,000$5,250,000
LW, RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
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$6,375,000$6,375,000
C, LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$800,000$800,000
RW, C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$1,237,500$1,237,500
LD
UFA - 3
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$4,550,000$4,550,000
RD
UFA - 5
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$6,000,000$6,000,000
G
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$1,125,000$1,125,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$750,000$750,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$750,000$750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$1,950,000$1,950,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$1,550,000$1,550,000
LD
RFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$3,750,000$3,750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$800,000$800,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$750,000$750,000
RD
UFA - 1
Taxi Squad
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$801,666$801,666 ($0$0$0$0) (Performance Bonus$15,000$15K)
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$912,500$912,500 ($0$0$0$0)
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$900,000$900,000 ($0$0$0$0)
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$863,333$863,333 ($0$0$0$0)
LW
RFA - 3
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$827,500$827,500 ($0$0$0$0)
RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$813,333$813,333 ($0$0$0$0) (Performance Bonus$20,000$20K)
G
RFA - 3

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Jan. 14, 2022 at 4:05 a.m.
#1
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Sharks easily decline. 1st and a top prospect to start. Like you said Zary instead, but without an extension. If you want an elite center with an extension it will cost WAY more than that.
Jan. 14, 2022 at 4:11 a.m.
#2
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Quoting: glarson17
Sharks easily decline. 1st and a top prospect to start. Like you said Zary instead, but without an extension. If you want an elite center with an extension it will cost WAY more than that.


Nobody's giving you a 1st and a Zary level prospect for Hertl. Rentals don't get that type of a return
Jan. 14, 2022 at 5:11 a.m.
#3
Temple of Ferraro
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Trade for Hertl doesn’t understand want we actually need. Weatherby already our 4C for the future. We already have a wealth of LHS LD. High prospect and a 1st min
Jan. 14, 2022 at 5:35 a.m.
#4
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Quoting: Bias_it_self
Trade for Hertl doesn’t understand want we actually need. Weatherby already our 4C for the future. We already have a wealth of LHS LD. High prospect and a 1st min

Gawdin’s mostly a throw in to see if a change of scenery helps. Kuzy was a 2nd round pick, he is a good prospect lol. The only LHD prospect you have that might be better is Kniazev, who is more of an offensive guy. You’re not gonna get much better than this (1st+recent 2nd+wild card) for a pure rental.
Jan. 14, 2022 at 7:58 a.m.
#5
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Seeing as we are being ridiculous here, Montreal counters with Tuch + Harris + 2nd + 2nd for Lindholm. Montreal isn't moving Toffoli without a top prospect + 1st coming back, nice try though!
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Jan. 14, 2022 at 9:13 a.m.
#6
IamAlwaysRight
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Edited Jan. 14, 2022 at 9:27 a.m.
Sharks counter with Hamaliuk, Blichfeld 2nd for Tkachuk

Rental or not you're not getting Hertl (6th in goals this year) for an LD prospect that we already have tons of and a nobody reclamation project. You're not being remotely realistic.

Sharks will get Max value for Hertl and this isn't it. Not close.
Jan. 14, 2022 at 9:19 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: Campabee
Seeing as we are being ridiculous here, Montreal counters with Tuch + Harris + 2nd + 2nd for Lindholm. Montreal isn't moving Toffoli without a top prospect + 1st coming back, nice try though!


Well Toffoli is never getting traded then…

Also Lindholm >>> Toffoli
Jan. 14, 2022 at 9:26 a.m.
#8
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Quoting: villenash
Well Toffoli is never getting traded then…

Also Lindholm >>> Toffoli


Never said he wasn't better just that Toffoli gets a 1st + 2nd or 1st + top prospect without retention. what equates to four 2nds is not going to cut it.
MountRoyal liked this.
Jan. 14, 2022 at 9:32 a.m.
#9
Flood Geologist
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If you want a bottom 6 D upgrade, maybe Kulak from Montreal is the better option than paying a lot for Toffoli for the top 6, who will get at least a first. Kulak will cost far less, maybe a 2023 3rd.
Jan. 14, 2022 at 9:35 a.m.
#10
Flood Geologist
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Quoting: villenash
Well Toffoli is never getting traded then…

Also Lindholm >>> Toffoli


Would any team trade a top-6 player on a good contract for anything less than a first plus something else?
Jan. 14, 2022 at 9:39 a.m.
#11
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Quoting: MountRoyal
Would any team trade a top-6 player on a good contract for anything less than a first plus something else?


Toffoli for a 1st + top prospect

That was what I was replying to. He’s not getting that.

And your “something else” is extremely vague here…
Jan. 14, 2022 at 9:40 a.m.
#12
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Quoting: MountRoyal
Never said he wasn't better just that Toffoli gets a 1st + 2nd or 1st + top prospect without retention. what equates to four 2nds is not going to cut it..


I’m not saying OP’s trade is great, but if you think that is the value of 4 2nds (I don’t - the two players are basically worth 5th/6th rounders imo) then that’s a good deal. An offer of 4 2nds for Toffoli would easily get a deal done.

And Toffoli will never return a top prospect. He may net a guy like Kravtsov, someone in that situation, but he’s not going to just get a top prospect — unless you have a different definition to top prospect that me (A prospect or better)
Jan. 14, 2022 at 10:01 a.m.
#13
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You can need two top 9 forwards all you want, you're aren't close to getting Hertl or Toffoli with that.
Jan. 14, 2022 at 10:12 a.m.
#14
Flood Geologist
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Quoting: villenash
I’m not saying OP’s trade is great, but if you think that is the value of 4 2nds (I don’t - the two players are basically worth 5th/6th rounders imo) then that’s a good deal. An offer of 4 2nds for Toffoli would easily get a deal done.

And Toffoli will never return a top prospect. He may net a guy like Kravtsov, someone in that situation, but he’s not going to just get a top prospect — unless you have a different definition to top prospect that me (A prospect or better)


I agree, if 4 seconds are offered, Jeff Gorton is personally paying Toffoli's plane ticket to Calgary out of his own salary. Otherwise, its a first and 3rd and a B prospect? Or Toffoli and a B prospect for a first, a 2nd, and a cap dump? Or Tofolli with retention for a first and a 2nd? Something like that ...
villenash liked this.
Jan. 14, 2022 at 12:16 p.m.
#15
Jeff Gorton
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Any trade with Toffoli starts with a 1st and a good prospect coming back. Your trade has neither
Jan. 14, 2022 at 12:51 p.m.
#16
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Nobody's giving you a 1st and a Zary level prospect for Hertl. Rentals don't get that type of a return


Well we aren’t trading him for a guy with a ceiling of 4C, which we don’t need, and a LD which we have a ton of. Hertl is on pace for 40+ goals he isn’t going to be cheap.
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Jan. 14, 2022 at 12:55 p.m.
#17
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I agree with what you are saying and I like the players you are targeting, but Flames need to add in both.

Consensus on ACGM for Toffoli has been about a 1st + 2nd and I don't think I have seen both sides happy with a single Hertl trade. So maybe someone else to center Mang and Dube.
Jan. 14, 2022 at 1:15 p.m.
#18
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Quoting: glarson17
Well we aren’t trading him for a guy with a ceiling of 4C, which we don’t need, and a LD which we have a ton of. Hertl is on pace for 40+ goals he isn’t going to be cheap.


Never said you are. Not my thread.
 
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