Forums/Armchair-GM

List of players expected to fetch 1sts

Created by: Byrr
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 17, 2022
Published: Jan. 17, 2022
Team: 2021-22 Custom Team
Team Explanation
So with LeBrun saying Buffalo hopes to get a 1st for Miller today, I decided to make a list of just how many 1sts people are expecting to be exchanged at the deadline.

For reference a total of 3 1st round picks were exchanged at last years deadline and, with a better draft this year, the picks are more valuable to start with.

Now keep in mind these are only rentals, with no goalies, and not longer term options that might be available from teams like the Canadiens. As a community, do we really believe 12 1st round picks (and thats assuming I'm not forgetting anyone, so its probably 2 or 3 higher) are about to be exchanged from one of the stronger drafts in recent history?
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
11$82,500,000$38,453,417$0$0$44,046,583
Left WingCenterRight Wing
Logo of the PHI
Giroux, Claude
$4,137,500
C, RW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the SJS
Hertl, Tomas
$5,625,000
C, RW
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the DAL
Pavelski, Joe
$7,000,000
RW, C
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the CBJ
Domi, Max
$1,325,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the ANA
Rakell, Rickard
$2,463,139
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the BUF
Miller, Colin
$3,875,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the ANA
Manson, Josh
$2,050,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the SEA
Giordano, Mark
$3,375,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the DAL
Klingberg, John
$4,250,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the MTL
Chiarot, Ben
$1,750,000
LD/RD
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the ANA
Lindholm, Hampus
$2,602,778
LD
UFA - 1

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Jan. 17 at 1:17 p.m.
#1
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Miller probably should be 2 2nds...same with Chiarot. The rest makes sense.
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Jan. 17 at 1:18 p.m.
#2
MikeyGetsNoToi
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Miller probably should be 2 2nds...same with Chiarot. The rest makes sense.


What’s victors price tag
Also tage
Jan. 17 at 1:20 p.m.
#3
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This is capfriendly, everyone is worth at least a 1st. That and two top prospects of the trade is to the leafs.
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Jan. 17 at 1:20 p.m.
#4
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Ben chiarot is not worth a first round pick
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Jan. 17 at 1:26 p.m.
#5
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Domi, Chiarot and Miller don’t get 1sts I don’t think.

Especially Chiarot.
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Jan. 17 at 1:26 p.m.
#6
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If the Ducks are still where they are at the deadline, the list is significantly narrowed. Add to that the Sharks currently negotiating with Hertl.
Jan. 17 at 1:26 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Miller probably should be 2 2nds...same with Chiarot. The rest makes sense.


Thats the point. This many 1st round picks don't get exchanged at deadlines. It is a buyers market which will push the price down on the lesser players.
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Jan. 17 at 1:27 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: SevenLeg
If the Ducks are still where they are at the deadline, the list is significantly narrowed. Add to that the Sharks currently negotiating with Hertl.


Ducks aren't even currently in a playoff spot. If the season ended today they'd be 4th in the Pacific and behind 2 central teams for wild cards. They've just played 6-7 more games than their competition.
Jan. 17 at 1:29 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: Byrr
Ducks aren't even currently in a playoff spot. If the season ended today they'd be 4th in the Pacific and behind 2 central teams for wild cards. They've just played 6-7 more games than their competition.


The West, especially the Pacific, is volatile. By "where they are" I meant the category of playoffs hopefuls. Personally, I think they should sell, and they even should have sold at the last deadline, but they could look to make a playoffs push.
Byrr liked this.
Jan. 17 at 1:32 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: nintendofan721
Ben chiarot is not worth a first round pick


Hes not but he will get one anyway if gorton plays his cards right which i think he will.
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Jan. 17 at 1:42 p.m.
#11
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Forsberg, Gaudreau, JT Miller, etc...if any of those guys move.

I don't think Giordano, Chiarot, Domi gets 1sts.
(But I also would have said Foligno and Savard would have never gotten 1sts either)
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Jan. 17 at 1:43 p.m.
#12
First NY Then LA
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I'm an Anaheim guy, as you all know, and I don't think that Rakell or Manson gets a first. But I hold out hope.
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Jan. 17 at 1:57 p.m.
#13
Go Habs Go
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Two to four 1sts could be exchanged.
Some 1st/2nd round prospects could be moved as an equivalent.
Some could bring back a roster player instead.
Some will get less than expected once the teams offering 1st round picks have acquired their player or because they have control of their destination (see Hall).
Some won't be traded and/or will re-sign.

I'd say Giordano and Chiarot are likely to get 1sts.
Klingberg is more likely to return a quality prospect. Same with Hertl.
Ducks are likely to hang on to their players if they are still in the playoffs.

That leaves Pavelski, Giroux, Domi, and Miller.
Pavelski and Giroux are the most likely to return a 1st (plus). The re-signing potential is lower for them, so they make more sense as pure rentals, and both would be top 6 even on the best teams.
Domi would most likely be a 3rd line addition and return a 2nd (plus), while there probably won't be any 1sts left for defensemen when teams get to Miller, so a 2nd (plus) for him as well.
Jan. 17 at 1:58 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: capsfan2121
What’s victors price tag
Also tage


Tage is untouchable right now, Victor is probably a first and a prospect of like Lapierre and a second.
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Jan. 17 at 2:01 p.m.
#15
First NY Then LA
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Forsberg, Gaudreau, JT Miller, etc...if any of those guys move.

I don't think Giordano, Chiarot, Domi gets 1sts.
(But I also would have said Foligno and Savard would have never gotten 1sts either)


Quoting: ricochetii
I'd say Giordano and Chiarot are likely to get 1sts.
Klingberg is more likely to return a quality prospect. Same with Hertl.
Ducks are likely to hang on to their players if they are still in the playoffs.

That leaves Pavelski, Giroux, Domi, and Miller.
Pavelski and Giroux are the most likely to return a 1st (plus). The re-signing potential is lower for them, so they make more sense as pure rentals, and both would be top 6 even on the best teams.
Domi would most likely be a 3rd line addition and return a 2nd (plus), while there probably won't be any 1sts left for defensemen when teams get to Miller, so a 2nd (plus) for him as well.


Dark horse: Semyon Varlamov (plus?) for Edmonton's first and Mikko Koskinen.
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Jan. 17 at 2:18 p.m.
#16
Go Habs Go
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Quoting: OldNYIfan
Dark horse: Semyon Varlamov (plus?) for Edmonton's first and Mikko Koskinen.


I was just going by this list (no goalies here) but it's possible for the best goalie available. Next guy in line probably gets less because there won't be as much of a bidding war. I think Fleury is more likely to be that guy.
If a team were looking at a goaltender with term, they should be making their move by now, not waiting for the deadline.
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Jan. 17 at 2:24 p.m.
#17
MikeyGetsNoToi
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
Tage is untouchable right now, Victor is probably a first and a prospect of like Lapierre and a second.


That would be a better idea than miller
Jan. 17 at 2:26 p.m.
#18
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The only two here that genuinely warrant a 1st are Hertl and Klingberg. Everyone else not so much.

Giroux and Pavelski are both simultaneously too old and cost too much to get that kinda return unless retained. Even then I'd have my doubts.
Jan. 17 at 3:00 p.m.
#19
Daddy
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Quoting: RazWild
The only two here that genuinely warrant a 1st are Hertl and Klingberg. Everyone else not so much.

Giroux and Pavelski are both simultaneously too old and cost too much to get that kinda return unless retained. Even then I'd have my doubts.


The only way they get moved is if they are half retained or even teams may need to get a third party involved, very few if any buyers at the deadline can afford to take on their full cap hits, retention is a given if they are moved.

Age is a non-factor with a rental, in fact with age often comes experience which definitely doesn't hurt.

Pavelski is over a point per game and Giroux is pretty well near it. If they are moved they absolutely fetch a 1st, they have both been top line contributors this year, high-end rentals like this absolutely fetch a first.
 
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