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Lehkonen

Created by: Richard88
Team: 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche
Initial Creation Date: Jan. 31, 2022
Published: Jan. 31, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
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Avs had scouts at the Montreal/Columbus game, and Lehkonen is surely a prime target.

I'd also envisage that Sakic wants to sign Helleson early and give him some games this year to see if he can fill a depth role, to save having to spend assets on a RHD deadline rental.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
3$925,000
Trades
1.
COL
  1. Lehkonen, Artturi ($1,150,000 retained)
MTL
  1. 2023 2nd round pick (COL)
Additional Details:
+ Montreal's choice of one of Ranta/Kaut/Bowers
2.
COL
  1. Forsberg, Anton ($450,000 retained)
OTT
  1. 2022 6th round pick (COL)
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
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2023
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Logo of the COL
2024
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$79,999,796$1,741,463$850,000$1,500,204
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$7,000,000$7,000,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 8
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$6,300,000$6,300,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
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$9,250,000$9,250,000
RW, C
UFA - 4
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$2,500,000$2,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
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$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 1
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$4,900,000$4,900,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$0$0
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$908,333$908,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
C, LW
RFA - 2
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$725,000$725,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$3,500,000$3,500,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
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$2,000,000$2,000,000
C
UFA - 2
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$1,075,000$1,075,000
RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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$4,100,000$4,100,000
LD
UFA - 3
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$9,000,000$9,000,000
RD
UFA - 6
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$3,500,000$3,500,000
G
UFA - 1
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$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 6
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$6,000,000$6,000,000
RD
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 2
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$2,000,000$2,000,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$2,000,000$2,000,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$925,000$925,000
RD
RFA
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$875,000$875,000
LD/RD, LW
UFA - 1
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$1,000,000$1,000,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
LD/RD
RFA - 2
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$750,000$750,000
LD
UFA - 1
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$750,000$750,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$450,000$450,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$725,000$725,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Taxi Squad
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$809,167$809,167 ($0$0$0$0) (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
C, LW
UFA - 1

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Jan. 31, 2022 at 4:30 p.m.
#26
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John 3 16
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Quoting: ricochetii
A pick offer would be outbid by a good RD prospect. If you want to be at the top of the list, Barron could do that.
A 2nd and C prospect is definitely a consideration, and may be enough, but there will likely be similar offers so a lower chance of getting him.


Thanks for your reply. I'd be pretty shocked if any team traded a good RD prospect for Lehkonen. He's a good forward no doubt, but 3rd liners are far easier to come by than good young RD's.
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 4:33 p.m.
#27
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Black61
I know enough to know they arent blue chip prospects. Kaut was drafted in 2018 it is now 2022 the fact he was a 16th overall pick is irrelevant now. He isnt producing at the bare minimum expected of a D+4 top 6 prospect.

It may be hard for you to understand but a large part of being a blue chip prospect is production. A 15 point forward isnt a blue chipper regardless of how well the play defensively.

I agree that Kaut and Ranta aren't bluechip prospects. But do you really think a player like Lehkonen should garner a bluechip prospect? To be clear, to me a bluechip prospect is a top ~20 prospect in the league, players like Newhook or Byram for instance. Needless to say, a 3rd line winger is never returning a bluechip prospect.
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 4:35 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: TCMonkey
While it might not be by much, Ottawa could do better. A lot of playoff teams would love an upgrade on their backup for the playoffs.


Thanks for the feedback. Maybe Ottawa could do better. Honestly the 3G here could be any 3G in the league at the price of a late round pick or meh prospect.
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 4:39 p.m.
#29
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Xspyrit
I feel like I have missed something... why is Lehkonen worth so much all of sudden? I mean decent 3rd liner who was maybe worth a 3rd a few weeks ago?


His value as an RFA was always likely to be more than a 3rd. His defensive analytics are extremely impressive and combined with a low caphit make him an attractive target for teams at the deadline.

Quoting: coga16
bc I think it was Frank Seravelli said he could be a teams Blake Coleman this TDL (commenting on the versatility of the player not saying he gets the same return) and it has snow balled into Coleman got a 1st and Foote so Lehkonen will get that if not more

I hadn't seen Seravelli's tweet. Doubt Lehkonen gets a 1st, but given that he's an RFA he might get something in the ballpark of the 2nd + 3rd that Chicago got for Janmark last year (but probably not higher than that). Most likely I'd guess it would be a 2nd + prospect, but some team might up the ante if they really like him and Montreal prefer a different teams prospect or think their 2nd might be higher.
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 4:42 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: Richard88
His value as an RFA was always likely to be more than a 3rd. His defensive analytics are extremely impressive and combined with a low caphit make him an attractive target for teams at the deadline.


I hadn't seen Seravelli's tweet. Doubt Lehkonen gets a 1st, but given that he's an RFA he might get something in the ballpark of the 2nd + 3rd that Chicago got for Janmark last year (but probably not higher than that). Most likely I'd guess it would be a 2nd + prospect, but some team might up the ante if they really like him and Montreal prefer a different teams prospect or think their 2nd might be higher.






For reference
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 4:43 p.m.
#31
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Campabee
The three point night comment was more thinking out loud lol. He has always had a knack for producing when the pressure is on and when given a chance with decent wingers. His first year in the league I believe he was playing 2nd line wing and put up 18 goals. It wasn't until his second year where things fell off but he was also slotted back at 3LW I believe, I don't understand the coaches today not knowing there will be a regression when a player's ice time is cut back and the quality of his line mates is reduced. Like Caufield for example, He was playing great last season and in the playoffs because he was playing top 6 minutes with Suzuki. First scoring slump this year he was demoted to the 3rd and 4th lines, he isn't going to produce with Evans and Pacquette as his centers at least not as likely as he would with Suzuki or Pitlick who have more skill offensively but that is another rant for later lol.

Value wise around the league he would likely get 2 2nds, however his value to Montreal is much higher than that. I wouldn't be surprised to see Montreal set a price of around a 1st + a prospect like Barron or Newhook, not that the Avs or anyone else would likely want to pay that steep of price for Lehkonen just that the Habs would want to at least start the bidding high and only come down a little after negotiations.

I don't envisage that teams will be too keen to part with a 1st for him, or even 2 2nd's. And talk of Newhook or Barron is just silly. More than likely he'll stay put at the deadline and then Montreal will work out a reasonable trade in the offseason once they realise that they only have one year of control left and Lehkonen won't want to re-sign long-term to be part of a rebuild when he could be playing for contenders in his prime years.
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 4:45 p.m.
#32
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Black61
Lehkonen made the NHL and had 18 goals before he turned 22. The gap between them at the same age was massive and even lehkonen wasnt considered a blue chip prospect.

You are being oblivious to the timelines of Blue chip prospects. The blue chip prospects from the 2018 draft are all playing regularly in the NHL by now. He is the same draft as Romanov who is a few games away from 100 games already. Based on plenty of prospect research that has happened over the last decade the ship has essentially sailed on them being impact players.

Habs fans dont consider Ylonen (from the same draft) a blue chip prospect and he is arguably better at this point than either of these guys.

I thought all Habs prospects were blue chip prospects? Sticking Out Tongue
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 4:49 p.m.
#33
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John 3 16
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Quoting: Black61
Your first comment was on me arguing they are B/C tier Prospects which you tried to get on your high horse of boxscore isnt everything. That clearly implies that you think they are.

And the stats clearly do support that they are not blue chip prospects. You do have to score at atleast a passable rate in the lower levels to demonstrate that ability at a higher level and they ARENT DOING THAT.

Ranta is TWELTH in PPG on the eagles forwards. He got half a season last year with the eagles so rookie jitters is a bull excuse. He is behind 5 of the 6 regular dmen in ppg on the team. How is that remotely good?

Kaut is 7th on the forward group. This is his 4th year in the AHL he has had PLENTY of time to adjust and show what he has. If he was a bluechip prospect even as a defensive forward he should be flirting with a ppg pace in the AHL. He requires waivers next season and still hasnt demonstrated himself to be a everyday NHLer.

They are B and C tier prospects at this point


To your point about points totals in the AHL, I've heard it said by several people who watch a tonne of AHL hockey (especially Colorado Eagles games) that points totals can be really misleading as to who is doing well, because points are heavily skewed towards players who are getting the most PP time in the AHL, more so than in the NHL. And at least with the Eagles it's the veteran guys like Megna, Sikura, and Sherwood who get preference with PP time, leaving Ranta, Kaut, Foudy, Bowers, etc with less opportunities for easy points that can pad their stat line. Anyways, just my 2c and something to keep in mind when evaluating AHL prospects.
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 4:51 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: Xspyrit
Dayumn, people don't even give that for Connor Brown who last season was :

- Top-50 in EVP + SHP (even strength points + short handed points)
- 2nd in takeaways (behind only the TkA King Mark Stone)
- 3rd in SH TOI/GP among forwards (elite PKer)
- 17th in Selke votes

I'd be happy with Brown as a trade target. Would really help the PK which is a clear need for the Avs. That said, his caphit of $3.6m might be prohibitively high unless you can take Compher back? And what do you think his value is purely in terms of futures?
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 4:55 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: ricochetii
He's never been on the table for a 3rd. A 2nd was always his approximate value.
Now that he's having a good season on a bad team, he's getting some deserved recognition for his ability to perform at a high level consistently despite the circumstances.
The best available players always have an inflated value at the deadline, and he's possibly the top available defensive forward. With multiple teams interested, it's not so difficult to understand why his value is high.

Statements to the contrary are willful ignorance. He's easily worth a 2nd and up. You can debate how far up, but if he's never been lower than a 2nd, he's most definitely not worth less than that this season.

Lehkonen's value to Montreal will likely be at its peak this deadline. Once you get to this off-season Montreal will have less leverage with only 1 year of team control left. Lehkonen could easily decline to sign anything longer than a 1 year deal to ensure that he can play on a good team of his choosing sooner rather than later. For that reason it probably makes sense to move him at the deadline, but acquiring GM's will be mindful of the fact that he's only 1 year from UFA.
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 4:58 p.m.
#36
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John 3 16
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Quoting: coga16




For reference


Thanks for sharing. I'm not surprised by that at all. Lehkonen's underlying numbers beyond goal-scoring are really good.
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 5:03 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: Richard88
To your point about points totals in the AHL, I've heard it said by several people who watch a tonne of AHL hockey (especially Colorado Eagles games) that points totals can be really misleading as to who is doing well, because points are heavily skewed towards players who are getting the most PP time in the AHL, more so than in the NHL. And at least with the Eagles it's the veteran guys like Megna, Sikura, and Sherwood who get preference with PP time, leaving Ranta, Kaut, Foudy, Bowers, etc with less opportunities for easy points that can pad their stat line. Anyways, just my 2c and something to keep in mind when evaluating AHL prospects.


If they were blue chip prosoects they would be getting that time.......
Jan. 31, 2022 at 5:10 p.m.
#38
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Quoting: Black61
If they were blue chip prosoects they would be getting that time.......


No one here has claimed that they are bluechip prospects. Bluechip prospects generally don't spend a lot of time in the AHL to begin with (eg. Byram never played in the AHL, and Newhook only had a short stint). Prospects can be good prospects without being "bluechip" btw...
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 5:16 p.m.
#39
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Quoting: Richard88
Thanks for sharing. I'm not surprised by that at all. Lehkonen's underlying numbers beyond goal-scoring are really good.


ive been a fan of his for a while and he makes a lot of sense on the avs...they would have a guy like that on every line to do the heavy defensive lifting. Landeskog, Nuke, Lehkonen and then Jost for the 4th line. It would fit their architype.

I feel like sakic always has his price he is willing to go...maybe this year its a 2nd and a prospect. He will hunt around till he finds a guy that fits his price, cant see him getting into a bidding war if someone drives the price up to a 1st for Lehkonen.

Would be a good fit, just cant be getting into silly bidding wars on non core type players
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 5:18 p.m.
#40
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Quoting: Richard88
Thanks for your reply. I'd be pretty shocked if any team traded a good RD prospect for Lehkonen. He's a good forward no doubt, but 3rd liners are far easier to come by than good young RD's.


True, but it's far from a guarantee that Montreal would get a player that turns out even half as good as Lehkonen. While 3rd liners aren't difficult to find, he's one of the best and could be all the difference.
Jan. 31, 2022 at 5:49 p.m.
#41
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Quoting: coga16
ive been a fan of his for a while and he makes a lot of sense on the avs...they would have a guy like that on every line to do the heavy defensive lifting. Landeskog, Nuke, Lehkonen and then Jost for the 4th line. It would fit their architype.

I feel like sakic always has his price he is willing to go...maybe this year its a 2nd and a prospect. He will hunt around till he finds a guy that fits his price, cant see him getting into a bidding war if someone drives the price up to a 1st for Lehkonen.

Would be a good fit, just cant be getting into silly bidding wars on non core type players


I agree. It would be really nice to have another really solid defensive forward to bolster the 3rd line as well. Going forward he also offers insurance in case Nichuskin leaves.

In the playoffs it would also give Bednar the option of running a proper zero-event hockey line of Nichuskin-Jost-Lehkonen to close games out in the closing stages of games. Only issue there is that Jost sucks at draws.

Sakic does have his price, but I don't think it's as set in stone as "this year I'm only spending a 3rd round pick". For instance he's rumoured to have been happy to pay a 1st for Coleman and Foligno, he just hasn't been willing to go all the way when there's been a bidding war. I think the same will apply here as you said, I can't see Sakic entertaining anything higher than a 2nd + prospect for Lehkonen, there are just too many good options available who could be got with that sort of return instead (heck, maybe even Giroux double retained for something close to that if Giroux insists on only Colorado).

One thing that could work in Sakic's favour is the fact that Lehkonen only has 1 year of team control left after this season. Any acquiring GM will likely want to know that he'll sign long-term with them at a reasonable caphit, and Colorado would surely be one of the teams he'd be willing to do that with, if not his top option. Him and his agent will undoubtedly have seen the success that two-way players like him have had in Colorado (eg. Nichuskin, Jost, Donskoi, Toews), and would be wise to push for a move there so as to set up a future payday. He'd get to play on an offensive juggernaut to boost his offensive and analytical numbers, possibly win a cup, and then hit UFA for a nice last pay-rise.
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 5:56 p.m.
#42
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Quoting: ricochetii
True, but it's far from a guarantee that Montreal would get a player that turns out even half as good as Lehkonen. While 3rd liners aren't difficult to find, he's one of the best and could be all the difference.

He might make the difference, but he might also not.

If Montreal are insisting on a 1st or 2 2nd's for Lehkonen then it'll be very easy to simply target someone else instead. Giroux, Pavelski, Copp, Rakell, Namestnikov, Jarnkrok, etc etc etc
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 6:04 p.m.
#43
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Quoting: Richard88
I agree. It would be really nice to have another really solid defensive forward to bolster the 3rd line as well. Going forward he also offers insurance in case Nichuskin leaves.

In the playoffs it would also give Bednar the option of running a proper zero-event hockey line of Nichuskin-Jost-Lehkonen to close games out in the closing stages of games. Only issue there is that Jost sucks at draws.

Sakic does have his price, but I don't think it's as set in stone as "this year I'm only spending a 3rd round pick". For instance he's rumoured to have been happy to pay a 1st for Coleman and Foligno, he just hasn't been willing to go all the way when there's been a bidding war. I think the same will apply here as you said, I can't see Sakic entertaining anything higher than a 2nd + prospect for Lehkonen, there are just too many good options available who could be got with that sort of return instead (heck, maybe even Giroux double retained for something close to that if Giroux insists on only Colorado).

One thing that could work in Sakic's favour is the fact that Lehkonen only has 1 year of team control left after this season. Any acquiring GM will likely want to know that he'll sign long-term with them at a reasonable caphit, and Colorado would surely be one of the teams he'd be willing to do that with, if not his top option. Him and his agent will undoubtedly have seen the success that two-way players like him have had in Colorado (eg. Nichuskin, Jost, Donskoi, Toews), and would be wise to push for a move there so as to set up a future payday. He'd get to play on an offensive juggernaut to boost his offensive and analytical numbers, possibly win a cup, and then hit UFA for a nice last pay-rise.


I agree wih that, if its not a pure rental, I dont see him having issues paying a premium or a 1st for a guy, if he knows they can kep them or work them into the fold next season, that seems right up his alley.

I would put Landeskog as the C on that shut down line. He can take the draw, Go with he 3 big boys in Nuke Landy and Lehkonen. I would just saying a 2nd and a prospect was his price as a rhetorical example..I have no clue what he is going to do this TDL, he broke the mold when he traded for kuemper moving a 1st and timmins. All bets are off now.
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Jan. 31, 2022 at 6:35 p.m.
#44
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Quoting: Richard88
I don't envisage that teams will be too keen to part with a 1st for him, or even 2 2nd's. And talk of Newhook or Barron is just silly. More than likely he'll stay put at the deadline and then Montreal will work out a reasonable trade in the offseason once they realise that they only have one year of control left and Lehkonen won't want to re-sign long-term to be part of a rebuild when he could be playing for contenders in his prime years.


Have you not heard, Price pretty much said he is not waiving his NMC, this will force Hughes to retool instead of rebuilding. Therefore Lehkonen has no reason to not want to extend, plus he is young enough to still be around IF Hughes does decide to rebuild.
Jan. 31, 2022 at 7:03 p.m.
#45
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Quoting: Campabee
Have you not heard, Price pretty much said he is not waiving his NMC, this will force Hughes to retool instead of rebuilding. Therefore Lehkonen has no reason to not want to extend, plus he is young enough to still be around IF Hughes does decide to rebuild.


Price not waiving his NMC to block a rebuild doesn't exactly do any favours for Montreal's chances of being competitive anytime soon... Why would Lehkonen sign for a team that's just going to be treading water for the next half decade plus when he can force a move to a contender? Maybe if Montreal offer him more $$$ than he's worth, but he's surely got to be looking at his career path with his agent and thinking that if he goes to a good offensive team and improves his offensive output he can get paid handsomely as an UFA down the line, and possibly also win a cup obviously.
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Feb. 1, 2022 at 11:12 a.m.
#46
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Quoting: Richard88
1 Price not waiving his NMC to block a rebuild doesn't exactly do any favours for Montreal's chances of being competitive anytime soon...
2 Why would Lehkonen sign for a team that's just going to be treading water for the next half decade plus when he can force a move to a contender?
3 Maybe if Montreal offer him more $$$ than he's worth,

Just splitting your post so I can answer better.
1. Doesn't block much to me, until we know if he'll ever play again it's LTIR money that can be used. If he decides to retire I think his contract will go from an anchor to actually something someone will pay big bucks for (10M of LTIR on a multiyear deal)
2. Well it's rumoured that Toffoli said he liked it here and wanted to be part of the veterans through a rebuild plan. Some players don't mind going through a rebuild when they like the place they play (Happy wife, happy life), they still get paid big bucks and don't get any pressure.
3. No please, we already did it with Armia so we can't afford another overpaid third liner.

Also @coga16 and @Richard88 I'm really sorry for anyone asking for Newhook or Byram PLUS something for Lehkonen. I don't know what's happening here, Ranta and a late next year second is a very good offer, thank you.
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Feb. 1, 2022 at 2:15 p.m.
#47
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Quoting: Richard88
His value as an RFA was always likely to be more than a 3rd. His defensive analytics are extremely impressive and combined with a low caphit make him an attractive target for teams at the deadline.


The link for the past ACGM I provided was YOUR thread that you posted on Oct. 13, 2020

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/2036235

In that ACGM, you propose Lehkonen for Sampo Ranta

Ranta was himself a recent 3rd round pick who hadn't done anything special to rise his stock... so I find it weird that you say "was always likely to be more than a 3rd"

Again, my point is that the vast majority of Habs fans I have read (not just on CF) about Lehkonen's value thought he was worth about a 3rd round pick, until very recently...

And it seems that his stock right now is at its highest it's ever been so it would be smart to sell since that team is not going to compete anytime soon anyway

Quoting: Richard88
I don't envisage that teams will be too keen to part with a 1st for him, or even 2 2nd's. And talk of Newhook or Barron is just silly.


Silly is an UNDERSTATEMENT

Colorado wouldn't trade Newhook for Caufield and Lehkonen

Quoting: Richard88
I'd be happy with Brown as a trade target. Would really help the PK which is a clear need for the Avs. That said, his caphit of $3.6m might be prohibitively high unless you can take Compher back? And what do you think his value is purely in terms of futures?


Believe me, Connor brown at 3.6 AAV is a PURE BARGAIN.

As @sensonfire has mentioned several times, think about Brown's value as the Coleman trade, but even more if he has 1 year left or if you want retention or sending a contract back (although I don't think Compher is overpaid)


His current 3 years contract started last season and he has played 82 games since. He scored 26 goals, 54 pts while being massively deployed defensively in a match up role... He is a fantastic player
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Feb. 1, 2022 at 2:59 p.m.
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Quoting: Xspyrit
The link for the past ACGM I provided was YOUR thread that you posted on Oct. 13, 2020

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/2036235

In that ACGM, you propose Lehkonen for Sampo Ranta

Ranta was himself a recent 3rd round pick who hadn't done anything special to rise his stock... so I find it weird that you say "was always likely to be more than a 3rd"

Again, my point is that the vast majority of Habs fans I have read (not just on CF) about Lehkonen's value thought he was worth about a 3rd round pick, until very recently...

And it seems that his stock right now is at its highest it's ever been so it would be smart to sell since that team is not going to compete anytime soon anyway



Silly is an UNDERSTATEMENT

Colorado wouldn't trade Newhook for Caufield and Lehkonen



Believe me, Connor brown at 3.6 AAV is a PURE BARGAIN.

As sensonfire has mentioned several times, think about Brown's value as the Coleman trade, but even more if he has 1 year left or if you want retention or sending a contract back (although I don't think Compher is overpaid)


His current 3 years contract started last season and he has played 82 games since. He scored 26 goals, 54 pts while being massively deployed defensively in a match up role... He is a fantastic player


Thanks for the thoughtful and thorough response.

Nice that you found my old AGM lol. You may have noticed back then that I said in the trades Additional Details: "Or a pick (not sure on value)". In hindsight Ranta straight up probably wasn't going to get it done. But also in fairness Lehkonen's value has gone up as there's even more data on him now, including playoffs.

I agree that now is the peak time to sell high on Lehkonen. In the offseason his value will already start to go down since Montreal will only have one year of team control left.

As for Connor Brown, yeah I could see him being sought after by teams at the deadline, but his caphit is double what Coleman's was and Melnyk probably won't want to retain. It would need to be more of a hockey trade you'd imagine, but then why would Ottawa do that when they already have a good player, and when playoff teams won't sell their good players to get him? Seems more like an offseason move to me, unless someone can engineer capspace.
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