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Prospect Discussion Thread #2

Jun. 1, 2022 at 4:24 p.m.
#1026
I make typos
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I don't know why but I really want to see M. Savoie go to the Flyers, for some reason I have always thought he would look really good in their jersey
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Jun. 1, 2022 at 5:07 p.m.
#1027
do not Devil my ass
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Quoting: Db1899
I think it’s a lock he gets picked by Arizona




Manifesting Fitzgerald picking Cooley at #2.
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Jun. 1, 2022 at 5:23 p.m.
#1028
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Quoting: Tintin
Manifesting Fitzgerald picking Cooley at #2.


If they did that they have a good shot at winning a cup starting from 23-24 season with Cooley on his ELC. Hugh’s-Hischier-Cooley down the middle, get a gritty 4C and then when Cooleys ELC is up they can trade Hischier
Jun. 1, 2022 at 5:24 p.m.
#1029
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Quoting: Db1899
I think it’s a lock he gets picked by Arizona




Nah, he's too skilled. Jay Beagle would have none of it.
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Jun. 1, 2022 at 5:58 p.m.
#1030
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: Tintin
Manifesting Fitzgerald picking Cooley at #2.


I got a feeling we either see

Wright go at #1 and Slafkovský go at #2 or vice versa. And it makes sense as if he can make an impact in the NHL within a year Devils could use that.

Cooley is nice but I got a feeling hes gonna be the #3 pick and it works out well for Arizona as he can stay in College until they either move to Houston or Quebec

As that Tempe project aint looking good and they havent even voted yet. Like Phoenix is threatening to sue them over it and 2 other organizations gave the project low marks citing financial issues as a big problem.
Jun. 1, 2022 at 7:59 p.m.
#1031
Jinx god
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Am I the only one that thinks Nemec will be the best player in this draft?
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Jun. 1, 2022 at 8:00 p.m.
#1032
SHL NJD GM
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Quoting: EsoYeezus69
Am I the only one that thinks Nemec will be the best player in this draft?


It's possible, right now my rankings are my exacts thoughts on risk/reward for every player but realistically, anyone in the top like 10 has a shot at becoming the best player right now
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Jun. 2, 2022 at 1:10 a.m.
#1033
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Quoting: EsoYeezus69
Am I the only one that thinks Nemec will be the best player in this draft?

I think he’ll be a top pair guy, but not sure he’ll ever be like a Norris contender guy, which in most years is the benchmark for a D to be the best player. I see him peaking as kinda like Rasmus Andersson, a really good 2-way top pair guy, but not a true #1. I think Slafkovsky has the highest upside in the draft (I’ve been using Rantanen as a comparable, Pronman suggested Nash which I think is fitting as well), he’s just a beast with no physical flaws, it’s just a matter of putting it all together (plus he shines in high pressure situations). Cooley or Savoie probably have the most skill of any individual player in the draft, it wouldn’t surprise me if one of them put up the draft’s best single season point total. Wright’s got the highest floor, and should be a reliable 1C for a long time at least at a Couturier-esque level. I’d bet on one of those 4 being the best player from the draft over Nemec when we look back 25 years down the line.
Jun. 2, 2022 at 9:58 a.m.
#1034
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Quoting: oilersguy
to me this is dumb, why should a 18 y.o. Russian guy be punished for something bad that their government is doing that they have no control over, unless they are supporting the war there shouldn't be a problem with drafting them and they also make sure that they actually support the war or if they are just saying that they do because they don't want to "disappear under mysterious circumstances"


I doubt this has anything to do with "punishment". Almost surely, it's purely a cost/benefit analysis. Future is too uncertain for Russian prospects than the organization is comfortable with.
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Jun. 2, 2022 at 2:51 p.m.
#1035
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Jun. 2, 2022 at 3:25 p.m.
#1036
LIVIN ON A PRAYER
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Quoting: Db1899




I'd pump the brakes. Schenn and RNH aren't in the same conversation as those other three names so there's clearly a wide range of outcomes being looked at here.

I'd be curious as to how they're calculating his NHLe. By my math his USDP numbers result in an NHLe of just over 27.
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Jun. 2, 2022 at 3:53 p.m.
#1037
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I'd pump the brakes. Schenn and RNH aren't in the same conversation as those other three names so there's clearly a wide range of outcomes being looked at here.

I'd be curious as to how they're calculating his NHLe. By my math his USDP numbers result in an NHLe of just over 27.


He’s not going based on style comparisons. 4 out of those 5 players he listed are considered star point producers by his model (.70 career point per game). Schenn just misses the cut off (.68 PPG)

He’s basically saying Cooley has a very high chance of being a star producer in the NHL. I’m not sure how you calculated , but i know Byron’s model accounts for age. Cooley is on the younger side of the draft class
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Jun. 2, 2022 at 3:55 p.m.
#1038
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Future islander



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Jun. 2, 2022 at 4:13 p.m.
#1039
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: Db1899
Future islander





I got a feeling Yzerman is gonna take him as he seems like his kind of guy but who knows
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Jun. 2, 2022 at 4:20 p.m.
#1040
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Quoting: aadoyle
I got a feeling Yzerman is gonna take him as he seems like his kind of guy but who knows


I think the Red wings will take Nazar
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Jun. 2, 2022 at 4:23 p.m.
#1041
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Quoting: aadoyle
I got a feeling Yzerman is gonna take him as he seems like his kind of guy but who knows


I see the top 10 going like this:

Wright
Slaf
Cooley
Nemec
Jiricek
Savoie
Geekie
Nazar
Kemell
Yurov
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Jun. 2, 2022 at 4:42 p.m.
#1042
Thread Starter
CELEBRINI IS A SHARK
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Quoting: Db1899
I see the top 10 going like this:

Wright
Slaf
Cooley
Nemec
Jiricek
Savoie
Geekie
Nazar
Kemell
Yurov


As long as SJ gets Cutter or Lekky I’m happy😤;

Sheng Peng keeps talking about the 3 O zone minded D for the Sharks (Korchiswhatever, Minuytov whatever, and Pavel something?) and IF THE SHARKS DRAFT ANOTHER OFD IM GONNA LOSE MY MIND
Jun. 2, 2022 at 4:57 p.m.
#1043
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: Db1899
I think the Red wings will take Nazar


Nazar doesnt scream Yzerman guy though Lambert does

Nazar to me looks like someone on his way to Buffalo and who would be a great fit for their system
Jun. 2, 2022 at 4:58 p.m.
#1044
do not Devil my ass
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Quoting: Db1899
I see the top 10 going like this:

Wright
Slaf
Cooley
Nemec
Jiricek
Savoie
Geekie
Nazar
Kemell
Yurov


Yes, but Slaf and Cooley swap places.
Jun. 2, 2022 at 5:07 p.m.
#1045
LIVIN ON A PRAYER
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Quoting: Db1899
He’s basically saying Cooley has a very high chance of being a star producer in the NHL. I’m not sure how you calculated , but i know Byron’s model accounts for age. Cooley is on the younger side of the draft class


NHLEe = (Points/GP) * 82 NHL GP * 2 * Conv. Factor

I've been using Patrick Bacon's NHLE figures found here ever since MannyElk took his off of Twitter. Note that the multiplier of 2 is only used for junior hockey; translation between professional leagues tends to omit it. In the instance where a prospect has played across multiple formats - such as Cooley having split time in the USDP, USHL, and WJC-18s - I'll weigh each of the separate NHLe's by GP before summing the totals. I do also calculate goals and assists individually just to gather a more complete picture on the prospect in question.

Alone, his USDP numbers give an NHLe of 29.182. His USHL numbers results in an NHLe of 35.178. His WJC-18s suggest an NHLe of 36.900 (I don't like the sample size of this stat personally). My weighted method produces an NHLe of 31.531. I think it's a phenomenal value for any prospect to be hitting either way, but I urge caution in light of the RNH comparison (ppg or stylistic, take your pick) as his draft-day NHLe was 36.686. Size, skills, and production are very, very similar and it's why I believe an RNH end product to be the most likely outcome, especially if he's going to be thrust on a Coyotes squad that will require he take up a top-six role prematurely. I think he's far more apt to hit his ceiling in New Jersey where the team will value development over immediate results.

Still a great pick at the end of the day and Cooley very likely finishes his career as a top-10 player from this draft, but I still think a lot of the noise around him is clickbait.
Jun. 3, 2022 at 5:22 p.m.
#1046
LIVIN ON A PRAYER
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Boy am I glad the Oilers passed on Wallstedt because they already had two prospect netminders.

I'm never gonna know peace.
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Jun. 3, 2022 at 5:29 p.m.
#1047
Saskoiler for now
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli




Boy am I glad the Oilers passed on Wallstedt because they already had two prospect netminders.

I'm never gonna know peace.


Hey at least you selected Vasi instead of Nail Yakapov… oh wait.
Jun. 3, 2022 at 5:30 p.m.
#1048
LIVIN ON A PRAYER
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Quoting: Saskleaf
Hey at least you selected Vasi instead of Nail Yakapov… oh wait.


That was two rebuilds ago, not terribly worried about it rn
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Jun. 3, 2022 at 5:38 p.m.
#1049
Saskoiler for now
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
That was two rebuilds ago, not terribly worried about it rn


Ya I know, I was just poking fun.
Jun. 3, 2022 at 5:45 p.m.
#1050
Bo Horvat enjoyer
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Quoting: yikes
As long as SJ gets Cutter or Lekky I’m happy😤;

Sheng Peng keeps talking about the 3 O zone minded D for the Sharks (Korchiswhatever, Minuytov whatever, and Pavel something?) and IF THE SHARKS DRAFT ANOTHER OFD IM GONNA LOSE MY MIND


Idk man the sharks could definitely use another offensive dman with no defensive skills at all
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