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Forums/Armchair-GM

Severson based on Muzzin trade

Created by: Ledge_And_Dairy
Team: 2021-22 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 11, 2022
Published: Feb. 13, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Trades
TOR
  1. Severson, Damon ($2,083,333 retained)
NJD
  1. Hirvonen, Roni [Reserve List]
  2. Holl, Justin
  3. Niemelä, Topi [Reserve List]
  4. 2022 1st round pick (TOR)
Retained Salary Transactions
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
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2023
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2024
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$81,500,000$81,241,449$0$400,000$258,551
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$950,000$950,000
LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,645,000$1,645,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$750,000$750,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$900,000$900,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,650,000$1,650,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$2,083,333$2,083,333
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,800,000$3,800,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$894,167$894,167
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RD
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LD/RD
UFA - 2

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Feb. 13, 2022 at 8:32 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
It's important to note that Durzi was drafted in his second year of eligibility. The following year was his 20 year old season and that production, while encouraging of course, was not all that meaningful or out of the ordinary - anything much less would have been disappointing, frankly. His standing at the time of the trade was no where near Niemela's, that's just the way it is.

Hirvonen in comparison to Grundstrom, however, is much closer (though Grundstrom wasn't a P/G player in the A). Hirvonen's got the edge in positional versatility and the higher ceiling, but Grundstrom was pretty much a guarantee to be a player. A bottom of the lineup player, but still. I could see having a preference for either.


I feel like NJ would want a deal around Niemela or Liljgren, and the 1st. I dont really consider Holl a dump here but more of a serviceable stopgap.

I decided to avoid Knies, Amirov, and Robertson in this deal as I consider them to be more in line with Toronto's window. I understand that the "new shiny things" have more value but I dont think these prospects are significantly different from the 2 in the Muzzin deal. Its also important to note that Jersey is retaining 50% here for 2 years, and that's not free
Feb. 13, 2022 at 8:53 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
There were highly rated prospects - at least as highly rated as the guys we are talking about today. None of these guys are elite A+ top-20 in league, bluechip guys. I get the sense that some leafs fans believe differently. And that’s fine. But that was not what you said, is it? You said Severson isn’t worth any of these prospects. You said he isn’t worth a 1st. So don’t come at me with “you don’t know anything” after that.


Actually, if you read correctly.. I said Severson isn't worth "a top prospect and a 1st". One of them would be involved in the deal, yes - hence why I mentioned Amirov or Knies as a possibility.

Niemela is getting pretty close to a blue chip guy. He's killing over in Liiga at such a young age, there's been comparisons to Heiskanen already.

& no. You're clearly showing your lack of knowledge of the Leafs prospects. You're only comparing guys based on where they were drafted or being drafted similar. You compared Durzi to Niemela as they were drafted in a similar draft position, forgetting that as mentioned above by @LeafsFanForSomeReason that Durzi was drafted in his second year of eligibility and didn't take off until his third draft plus year in the OHL (against guys younger than him), where Niemela is playing against me that are older. You compared Grundstrom to Knies because of similar draft positions when they're not the same either. Grundstrom is the more physical player that's better suited for a bottom 6 role (always had been projected as a 3rd liner) where Knies is physical but has quite a bit more offence to his game making his projection as a future top 6 guy (there's been some scouts and analysts that have said since he was drafted that he could have gone in the top 10-15 range based on how he's played since). So that's how I know you know nothing about the Leafs prospect system, it's pretty obvious actually.
Feb. 13, 2022 at 8:56 p.m.
#28
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
I feel like NJ would want a deal around Niemela or Liljgren, and the 1st. I dont really consider Holl a dump here but more of a serviceable stopgap.

I decided to avoid Knies, Amirov, and Robertson in this deal as I consider them to be more in line with Toronto's window. I understand that the "new shiny things" have more value but I dont think these prospects are significantly different from the 2 in the Muzzin deal. Its also important to note that Jersey is retaining 50% here for 2 years, and that's not free


Your logic makes sense, yes. But Niemela likely isn't available at all unless Toronto gets blown at by an offer (this isn't it). & it was mentioned by Frank Seravalli that Toronto is willing to listen on Amirov and Knies at this years deadline. Hence why I can see something along the lines of what I posted earlier (Amirov, Dermott, 2nd + 3rd for Severson + Bastian)
Feb. 13, 2022 at 9:03 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: TrueCanuck
Actually, if you read correctly.. I said Severson isn't worth "a top prospect and a 1st". One of them would be involved in the deal, yes - hence why I mentioned Amirov or Knies as a possibility.

Niemela is getting pretty close to a blue chip guy. He's killing over in Liiga at such a young age, there's been comparisons to Heiskanen already.

& no. You're clearly showing your lack of knowledge of the Leafs prospects. You're only comparing guys based on where they were drafted or being drafted similar. You compared Durzi to Niemela as they were drafted in a similar draft position, forgetting that as mentioned above by LeafsFanForSomeReason that Durzi was drafted in his second year of eligibility and didn't take off until his third draft plus year in the OHL (against guys younger than him), where Niemela is playing against me that are older. You compared Grundstrom to Knies because of similar draft positions when they're not the same either. Grundstrom is the more physical player that's better suited for a bottom 6 role (always had been projected as a 3rd liner) where Knies is physical but has quite a bit more offence to his game making his projection as a future top 6 guy (there's been some scouts and analysts that have said since he was drafted that he could have gone in the top 10-15 range based on how he's played since). So that's how I know you know nothing about the Leafs prospect system, it's pretty obvious actually.


You are just making s*** up now. I said nothing about draft position.

And Niemela will be Miro Heiskanen now?! Stay off the leafland koolaid. He is as likely to become David Rundblad as is an NHLer.
Feb. 13, 2022 at 9:52 p.m.
#30
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Edited Feb. 13, 2022 at 9:58 p.m.
Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
I feel like NJ would want a deal around Niemela or Liljgren, and the 1st. I dont really consider Holl a dump here but more of a serviceable stopgap.

I decided to avoid Knies, Amirov, and Robertson in this deal as I consider them to be more in line with Toronto's window. I understand that the "new shiny things" have more value but I dont think these prospects are significantly different from the 2 in the Muzzin deal. Its also important to note that Jersey is retaining 50% here for 2 years, and that's not free


What Jersey may or may not want, or what the right value is, I really don't care too much at the moment, tbh. That's a whole conversation in and of itself. All I had to comment on was the relative value of Niemela and Hirvonen to Durzi and Grundstrom at the time of the Muzzin trade. Niemela > Durzi, not close (and honestly, I think the hype train on Niemela has gotten a tad bit out of control, but the prior statement is still very true). Grundstrom = Hirvonen more or less.

Whether that value increase is proportionate to acquire Severson at half in comparison to Muzzin is a discussion worth having, but it's something I don't really feel like digging into right now.
Feb. 14, 2022 at 12:36 a.m.
#31
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Topi is an A level prospect though so him being there makes it not the same.

As if we look Muzzin was moved for a 1st and 2 B level prospects (Durzi and Grundstrom)

So if we were doing that it would be

1st + Hirovinen + Abramov or something.
Feb. 14, 2022 at 9:29 a.m.
#32
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
You are just making s*** up now. I said nothing about draft position.

And Niemela will be Miro Heiskanen now?! Stay off the leafland koolaid. He is as likely to become David Rundblad as is an NHLer.


Lol. Thanks for proving my point exactly - you know nothing about the prospects in Toronto's system. You've probably never watched a game and just rely on eliteprospects for your scouting report.
Feb. 14, 2022 at 10:58 a.m.
#33
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Quoting: TrueCanuck
Lol. Thanks for proving my point exactly - you know nothing about the prospects in Toronto's system. You've probably never watched a game and just rely on eliteprospects for your scouting report.


Show me where someone says Niemela will be the next Heiskenan. Educate me. I'm so dumb, you're so smart. Share with me what you know.

In 2019, Carl Grundstrom overall ranking (NHL-wide) ranged from #17 (McKeens) #41 (Sporting news) to #99 (The Hockey News). But I guess he was a "b" prospect.

But today, I am looking at today's crop and am seeing league-wide figures of 33, 79, 111, 56, 52, 46, 55, 24, 36, 28, 51....seems like same ballpark to me. But I guess those are all "A" guys now.

Square this up for me then.
Feb. 21, 2022 at 12:59 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
Grundstrom, Durzi were both top-5 prospects in a Leafs prospect pool that was more highly regarded than it is today. So this is a hard claim to make.


If Durzi and Grundstrom was in Toronto's prospect pool today they won't be top 5. They'd be top 10. Hiroven, Abruzzesze, Niemela, Amirov and Robertson are all way higher.

If it was based off the Muzzin trade value the trade would be:

Dermott, Hiroven, Rindell and a 2023 1st and 2022 2nd for Severson at 50% retained.

2022 2nd is an upgrade over a 3rd rounder cause of the 50% retained.
Feb. 21, 2022 at 1:36 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: CakeEaterBanks
Dermott, Hiroven, Rindell and a 2023 1st and 2022 2nd for Severson at 50% retained.

2022 2nd is an upgrade over a 3rd rounder cause of the 50% retained.


The Muzzin deal was a 1st round pick and two prospects, both top-5 in Leafs system at the time, both were recent 2nd rounders
The Muzzin deal had no retention.
Severson also pays RD, Muzzin was LD.
Like it or not, there is a premium on RD.
Muzzin was also being shopped since LAK had logjam at that position and cap crunch.
Devils have no logjam, no cap concerns and prefer to keep Severson.

Hiroven and Rindell are not the same level at all. And why is Dermott there?
This gets Subban, not Severson.

Needs to have two good prospects (Liljegren, Sandin, Robertson, Knies, Amriov, Niemela) and pick.
Otherwise, no reason for Devils to do it.
Feb. 21, 2022 at 6:31 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
The Muzzin deal was a 1st round pick and two prospects, both top-5 in Leafs system at the time, both were recent 2nd rounders
The Muzzin deal had no retention.
Severson also pays RD, Muzzin was LD.
Like it or not, there is a premium on RD.
Muzzin was also being shopped since LAK had logjam at that position and cap crunch.
Devils have no logjam, no cap concerns and prefer to keep Severson.

Hiroven and Rindell are not the same level at all. And why is Dermott there?
This gets Subban, not Severson.

Needs to have two good prospects (Liljegren, Sandin, Robertson, Knies, Amriov, Niemela) and pick.
Otherwise, no reason for Devils to do it.


I would say Liljgren and Sandin are off the table because they are NHL ready.

I would also put Hiroven in the group with Knies, Nemela, Amirov, and Robertson. While agree his offer is off the mark, mine to begin with could have been a bit steep too. Maybe Nemela + 1st is a good base for Severson then figure out the retention cost
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