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Fixing the Mike Smith Problem

Created by: dannibalcorpse
Team: 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 14, 2022
Published: Feb. 14, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Edmonton's goalie situation is in such a bad/weird state. Mikko Koskinen? Not good. Mike Smith? Not young, or all that healthy. Stuart Skinner? Apparently not ready. And the biggest problem is that, next year, Skinner is waiver-eligible and will need to stay on the roster, and Mike Smith has another year left on his contract. How can we avoid wasting another year of Connor & Leon's primes?

First, make the move to upgrade your #1 goalie this year (and most likely 1A next year), and get Semyon Varlamov from the Islanders, for the generally accepted value of Mikko Koskinen and a 1st.

Now, what do with Mike Smith? Gotta find somewhere to dump him, and I can't think of any better place to dump a goalie with health issues than Buffalo. He can tandem up with Craig Anderson the rest of the way this year (I don't think the Sabres should be worried about losing Dustin Tokarski through waivers) and next year Smith can mentor Buffalo's young goalie prospect Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. To sweeten the trade, you send Kailer Yamamoto out with him - KY seems to just not be clicking in Edmonton, so a change of scenery might help him unlock his potential. If you really need to convince Buffalo to take that Mike Smith contract, you can always throw in a conditional pick to give them backup in case Yamamoto doesn't work out there and they let him walk. For the sake of Edmonton's return, the role of "Brendan Davidson" could also be played by the nebulous "Future Considerations" - I just included Davidson as a potential 7th D if Edmonton wants him for whatever playoff run they might be making.

So, long story short, Edmonton sends out Koskinen, Smith, a #1, and Yamamoto/#2, and gets back Varlamov, cap room, and whatever depth player they want from Buffalo, and they are set in goal the rest of this year & next. Thoughts?
Trades
1.
NYI
  1. Koskinen, Mikko
  2. 2022 1st round pick (EDM)
2.
BUF
  1. Smith, Mike
  2. Yamamoto, Kailer
  3. 2023 2nd round pick (EDM)
Additional Details:
2023 2nd is conditional - if Yamamoto doesn't play for the 2022-23 Sabres, the pick conveys; otherwise, Edmonton keeps it.
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
2023
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
2024
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$80,061,497$669,339$1,840,000$1,438,503
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,500,000$5,500,000
RW, LW
NMC
UFA - 7
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,108,696$2,108,696
LW, RW
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,125,000$5,125,000
LW, C
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,200,000$3,200,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,750,000$2,750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,250,000$1,250,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,175,000$1,175,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$750,000$750,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$834,167$834,167 (Performance Bonus$57,500$58K)
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$850,000$850,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,600,000$5,600,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the New York Islanders
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LD
RFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,250,000$3,250,000
RD
UFA - 4
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$750,000$750,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$817,500$817,500 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RD
RFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
$750,000$750,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,167,000$4,167,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$750,000$750,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$5,538,462$5,538,462
LD
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$750,000$750,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,650,000$1,650,000
C, RW
UFA - 1

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Feb. 14, 2022 at 8:46 p.m.
#1
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Why wouldn’t Yam play?
Gmonwy liked this.
Feb. 14, 2022 at 8:49 p.m.
#2
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we miss leo k
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Quoting: joshelkin
Why wouldn’t Yam play?


If they decide he doesn't work for them and they don't qualify him, I should've been clearer in where I was going with that. He's an RFA this season so you basically give Buffalo a month+ to audition him and give them that backup if they hate the fit and let him walk.
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Feb. 14, 2022 at 8:49 p.m.
#3
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I would take that deal to Detroit for Smith. We are going to need a back up next season and I would take a chance on Yamamoto.
Feb. 14, 2022 at 8:51 p.m.
#4
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Buffalo accept
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Feb. 14, 2022 at 8:53 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Lancebmx
I would take that deal to Detroit for Smith. We are going to need a back up next season and I would take a chance on Yamamoto.


I thought about Detroit too, but just love the idea of teaming up 39-year-old Mike Smith with 40-year-old Craig Anderson the rest of the year with Buffalo. Smith is still playable enough with that $2.2M hit that I think a lot of teams could find a backup slot for him.
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Feb. 14, 2022 at 8:56 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
I thought about Detroit too, but just love the idea of teaming up 39-year-old Mike Smith with 40-year-old Craig Anderson the rest of the year with Buffalo. Smith is still playable enough with that $2.2M hit that I think a lot of teams could find a backup slot for him.


Buffalo would probably trade Anderson to a team like Vegas to help their goaltending situation. So it does make sense for them.
Feb. 14, 2022 at 9:49 p.m.
#7
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what problem Smith was great vs. the Isles and looks like he finally is recovered from his injury and Koskinen is way over hated sometimes and is ok NHL backup and Skinner is ready to Backup and by this time next year I can see him being a 1A
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Feb. 14, 2022 at 10:03 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: oilersguy
what problem Smith was great vs. the Isles and looks like he finally is recovered from his injury and Koskinen is way over hated sometimes and is ok NHL backup and Skinner is ready to Backup and by this time next year I can see him being a 1A


being great vs. the Isles is not the same thing this year as it might have been the few years previous. That good game against the Isles was only the 3rd time in 9 starts this year that he's let in less than 3 goals, and lowered his GAA to 3.05 while raising his sv% to .901.

To me, the Mike Smith problem is multiple parts: He turns 40 next month and has only played 9 of Edmonton's first 45 games. His last 4 seasons he's made 116 starts and brought to the table a 2.74 GAA and .906 SV%, and those numbers only look decent because he had a good year last year. It's become clear that the Oilers need some sort of upgrade in goal to make any sort of serious run, which is why Varlamov makes sense. His back of the card stats are better than Smith's over that same period (136 starts, 2.55 GAA, .916 SV%) and if you want to get advanced, Varly has saved 29.7 goals above average during that time, while Mike Smith is -9.5 - meaning Varlamov has saved his team, on average, 10 more goals per season than Smith has. For a team only a couple points back of playoff position, that's incredibly crucial - oh, and playoffs? Varlamov has a .922 SV%, 2.32 GAA, and 18 playoff wins in 33 starts the past two seasons - Mike Smith hasn't even started 33 playoff games in his entire career to this point.
Feb. 14, 2022 at 10:16 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
being great vs. the Isles is not the same thing this year as it might have been the few years previous. That good game against the Isles was only the 3rd time in 9 starts this year that he's let in less than 3 goals, and lowered his GAA to 3.05 while raising his sv% to .901.

To me, the Mike Smith problem is multiple parts: He turns 40 next month and has only played 9 of Edmonton's first 45 games. His last 4 seasons he's made 116 starts and brought to the table a 2.74 GAA and .906 SV%, and those numbers only look decent because he had a good year last year. It's become clear that the Oilers need some sort of upgrade in goal to make any sort of serious run, which is why Varlamov makes sense. His back of the card stats are better than Smith's over that same period (136 starts, 2.55 GAA, .916 SV%) and if you want to get advanced, Varly has saved 29.7 goals above average during that time, while Mike Smith is -9.5 - meaning Varlamov has saved his team, on average, 10 more goals per season than Smith has. For a team only a couple points back of playoff position, that's incredibly crucial - oh, and playoffs? Varlamov has a .922 SV%, 2.32 GAA, and 18 playoff wins in 33 starts the past two seasons - Mike Smith hasn't even started 33 playoff games in his entire career to this point.


I am fine with trading with for Varlamov but I those stats been helped a lot by playing for the for the great defensively Isles and the reason Mike Smith hasn't started 33 playoff games in his career is because he spent all those years on the yotes
Feb. 14, 2022 at 10:39 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: oilersguy
I am fine with trading with for Varlamov but I those stats been helped a lot by playing for the for the great defensively Isles and the reason Mike Smith hasn't started 33 playoff games in his career is because he spent all those years on the yotes


that run includes Varly's last year in Colorado, who weren't a defensive juggernaut. And while those Coyotes teams Smith played on weren't necessarily awful (save for the 2014-15 team) and Smith never put the team on his back to drag them over the hump, I was bringing up playoff games more to highlight something that NHL GMs can't resist: trading someone with extensive playoff experience to replace someone without.
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