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Forums/Armchair-GM

A New Defense for Playoffs

Created by: AFox23
Team: 2021-22 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 25, 2022
Published: Feb. 25, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. Chiarot, Ben ($1,750,000 retained)
MTL
  1. Dermott, Travis
  2. Rindell, Axel [Reserve List]
  3. 2022 2nd round pick (TOR)
  4. 2023 3rd round pick (TOR)
2.
TOR
  1. Ristolainen, Rasmus ($2,700,000 retained)
PHI
  1. Holl, Justin
  2. 2022 1st round pick (TOR)
3.
TOR
  1. Subban, P.K. ($4,500,000 retained)
NJD
  1. Lyubushkin, Ilya
  2. 2023 1st round pick (TOR)
4.
TOR
  1. Kempný, Michal ($1,250,000 retained)
WSH
  1. Dahlström, Carl
  2. 2023 2nd round pick (TOR)
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
Logo of the TOR
2023
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2024
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$79,244,783$0$0$2,255,217
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$950,000$950,000
LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,645,000$1,645,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$750,000$750,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$900,000$900,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers
$2,700,000$2,700,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,800,000$3,800,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$0$0
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,650,000$1,650,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Washington Capitals
$1,250,000$1,250,000
LD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$894,167$894,167
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LW
UFA - 1

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Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:05 a.m.
#1
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Chiarot and Risto my god you must hate analytics
kingjrb92 liked this.
Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:06 a.m.
#2
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Heres Risto
kingjrb92 liked this.
Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:09 a.m.
#3
Craig Laughlin Fan
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Wow.

That Washington trade would be something WSH would run with but would get you hung in the streets of Toronto. Kempny at best nets about a 6th round pick from a team desperate for a defenseman, his play this year hasn't been very good and Washington has no leverage since they will need to clear cap once Mantha returns. On this team you've built, he likely gets played out of a lineup spot by Sandin anyway.
AFox23 and capsfan2121 liked this.
Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:13 a.m.
#4
Greb
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Flyers accept
Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:16 a.m.
#5
Thread Starter
Your favorite Ranger
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Quoting: jet11567


Chiarot and Risto my god you must hate analytics


Yup, I do. They are mostly worthless. And can confuse player values. Most people have no idea what they are looking at with those charts. And have no idea how loose collection is and how the models are overwhelmed with every sort of bias just so they can 'fit' their data into their perceptions.

All of these 'chartmakers' are just clickbait social media accounts.
Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:19 a.m.
#6
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Likes: 7,343
good way to slip out of the playoffs all together
Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:19 a.m.
#7
Thread Starter
Your favorite Ranger
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Likes: 304
Quoting: NoVaSpartan
Wow.

That Washington trade would be something WSH would run with but would get you hung in the streets of Toronto. Kempny at best nets about a 6th round pick from a team desperate for a defenseman, his play this year hasn't been very good and Washington has no leverage since they will need to clear cap once Mantha returns. On this team you've built, he likely gets played out of a lineup spot by Sandin anyway.


Yes - I really brought him in as experienced 7D. But someone was bound to say, "you traded for him and put him on bench" so I just stuck him on third pair for the ACGM.
Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:20 a.m.
#8
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Likes: 7,343
Quoting: AFox23
Yup, I do. They are mostly worthless. And can confuse player values. Most people have no idea what they are looking at with those charts. And have no idea how loose collection is and how the models are overwhelmed with every sort of bias just so they can 'fit' their data into their perceptions.

All of these 'chartmakers' are just clickbait social media accounts.


lol, that explains it.
Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:24 a.m.
#9
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Joined: May 2019
Posts: 19,544
Likes: 7,343
Quoting: jet11567




Heres Risto


my favourite part is that the guy he made his screen name after is an absolute analytics gem. if i remember, Fox rates as a 96ish or so on these charts
Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:39 a.m.
#10
Thread Starter
Your favorite Ranger
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Likes: 304
Quoting: JaredOfLondon
my favourite part is that the guy he made his screen name after is an absolute analytics gem. if i remember, Fox rates as a 96ish or so on these charts


Its because I am a Ranger Fan
Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:39 a.m.
#11
Thread Starter
Your favorite Ranger
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
lol, that explains it.


Why don't you try explaining them to me.

Who collects the raw data from games? Is it Instat? Do they now have people at games or is it automated? Does anyone check the data? Does the collector know how the models are built? How do different services arrive at different figures for same games/players? Why do players who fall out of NHL fall out of their models? If players are being measured on percentile, that seems to be relevant. Why don't they release passing statistics? (some data collection groups track them and there is a reason they don't release to media clients). How come all the other bells and whistles like coverage areas and reach aren't shared with media clients? Why are people even using per-60 stats when they know full well, no two players are going to see the same types of minutes making them statistically incomparable?
RobbStark03 liked this.
Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:42 a.m.
#12
penguins,stars,leafs
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Likes: 20
why trade Lyubushkin, he is ok defensively, toronto should not do that
Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:43 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: AFox23
Why don't you try explaining them to me.

Who collects the raw data from games? Is it Instat? Do they now have people at games or is it automated? Does anyone check the data? Does the collector know how the models are built? How do different services arrive at different figures for same games/players? Why do players who fall out of NHL fall out of their models? If players are being measured on percentile, that seems to be relevant. Why don't they release passing statistics? (some data collection groups track them and there is a reason they don't release to media clients). How come all the other bells and whistles like coverage areas and reach aren't shared with media clients? Why are people even using per-60 stats when they know full well, no two players are going to see the same types of minutes making them statistically incomparable?


well for one, you can look up the numbers he uses yourself. they are publicly available and they all paint Risto as trash. You can also look up what these stats are and what they measure yourself too.
as far as the rest of the questions, you re just trying really really hard to dismiss something you clearly havent put an ounce of personal research into just because you dont wanna and it makes players you like look bad.
I am not going to do your homework for you, if you want a crash course in analytics that's on you.
At the end of the day, literally every person who understands analytics and looks at his numbers agrees that Risto (and chariot and other big slow bad defenders etc) are not good at defence because they do not limit shots, chances or goals against, they dont clear the puck out of the zone, they dont intercept high danger plays etc etc etc.
And the eye test backs all this up if you watch for anything that isnt a hit or a crosscheck
leafs101 liked this.
Feb. 25, 2022 at 8:44 a.m.
#14
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Quoting: AFox23
Its because I am a Ranger Fan


and? it's still funny as hell that you named yourself after a chart superstar
Feb. 25, 2022 at 9:12 a.m.
#15
torontos finest
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You don't need analytics to know that trading away firsts from Risto and Subban are awful ideas.
leafs101 liked this.
Feb. 25, 2022 at 9:38 a.m.
#16
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Quoting: craprt12
why trade Lyubushkin, he is ok defensively, toronto should not do that


That was my thought too. Not sure Devils would be interested in adding Lyubushkin as a rental.
Feb. 25, 2022 at 9:43 a.m.
#17
we miss leo k
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Quoting: NHLfan10506
That was my thought too. Not sure Devils would be interested in adding Lyubushkin as a rental.


If you look at the team they've built, it might be worth it - he's got Subban fully retained going for Lyub and a 2023 1st. And then he's got a TML team that needs 4-5 forwards, at least 2 defensemen, and a goalie, with ~$11M in cap space to do that. That 2023 1st might be special!
Feb. 25, 2022 at 9:45 a.m.
#18
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Quoting: craprt12
why trade Lyubushkin, he is ok defensively, toronto should not do that


i agree with you they just acquired him cant see them trading him for subban
Feb. 25, 2022 at 10:20 a.m.
#19
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Quoting: AFox23
Why don't you try explaining them to me.

Who collects the raw data from games? Is it Instat? Do they now have people at games or is it automated? Does anyone check the data? Does the collector know how the models are built? How do different services arrive at different figures for same games/players? Why do players who fall out of NHL fall out of their models? If players are being measured on percentile, that seems to be relevant. Why don't they release passing statistics? (some data collection groups track them and there is a reason they don't release to media clients). How come all the other bells and whistles like coverage areas and reach aren't shared with media clients? Why are people even using per-60 stats when they know full well, no two players are going to see the same types of minutes making them statistically incomparable?


It is useless to argue with Jared as he thinks analytics are the be all end all of player evaluation. There is a reason Dubas has not gotten a team with 4 superstar forwards and analytic gems out of the 1st round. Analytics are a tool and like many other tools on their own they are useless but when used CORRECTLY can be useful. Unlike how Jared uses them just to say players he doesn't like are bad. Chiarot is not an analytical dream and may not be a puck moving D man but he blocks shots, clears the front of the net, punishes players trying to enter his end of the ice with the puck, and is a great penalty killer. When paired with a puck moving D like Kulak or Romanov, he is very effective and the pairing thrives. The issues arise when he is paired with another less mobile D man like Savard as both are positional players instead of strong skaters.
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Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:15 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
lol, that explains it.


Toronto love analytics... How has that helped them in the playoffs?
Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:18 p.m.
#21
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
well for one, you can look up the numbers he uses yourself. they are publicly available and they all paint Risto as trash. You can also look up what these stats are and what they measure yourself too.
as far as the rest of the questions, you re just trying really really hard to dismiss something you clearly havent put an ounce of personal research into just because you dont wanna and it makes players you like look bad.
I am not going to do your homework for you, if you want a crash course in analytics that's on you.
At the end of the day, literally every person who understands analytics and looks at his numbers agrees that Risto (and chariot and other big slow bad defenders etc) are not good at defence because they do not limit shots, chances or goals against, they dont clear the puck out of the zone, they dont intercept high danger plays etc etc etc.
And the eye test backs all this up if you watch for anything that isnt a hit or a crosscheck


I guess Montreal didn't just school Leafs in the playoffs with Chiarot and Weber top pairing shutting down Matthews and Marner...
Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:19 p.m.
#22
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Quoting: RobbStark03
I guess Montreal didn't just school Leafs in the playoffs with Chiarot and Weber top pairing shutting down Matthews and Marner...


Yea, carey price bro
Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:20 p.m.
#23
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Quoting: RobbStark03
Toronto love analytics... How has that helped them in the playoffs?


Tampa too, and Colorado and vegas and Minnesota and Carolina and the new guy in florida.
Weird, all the best teams love analytics
Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:21 p.m.
#24
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
Yea, carey price bro


yeah, Leafs always get "Goalied", its never that their team failed in certain aspects. Montembeault just "goalied" them hard eh?
SevenLeg liked this.
Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:22 p.m.
#25
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Quoting: JaredOfLondon
Tampa too, and Colorado and vegas and Minnesota and Carolina and the new guy in florida.
Weird, all the best teams love analytics


Montreal also beat Vegas. And Colorado, Minnestoa, Carolina, lots of playoff success eh?
 
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