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Forsberg extension

Created by: vikhodush
Team: 2022-23 Carolina Hurricanes
Initial Creation Date: Feb. 25, 2022
Published: Feb. 25, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Not realistic but just wanted to see how / if a Forsberg extension would fit into what the Canes need to do next year and beyond.

Definitely gets tight and likely need to ship a bigger contract if you want something like this to work out without losing a young core piece - I chose Skjei in this scenario.

I don't love the 3rd pair but didn't feel like going into the weeds too much - I did like what Chatfield has shown when he's played this year and Cole is a serviceable 3rd pair / leadership type guy. Have 3.5-4M to mess with the 3rd pair if Cole & Chatfield aren't your cup of tea.

2 years down the road it's going to get tight with key UFAs (Aho, Pesce, Turbo) and RFAs (Drury, Jarvis, Rees) likely due raises. Staal and a couple of smaller contracts are moving off and hopefully cap raises by then so you can keep Aho and Pesce for sure, Turbo may be a cap casualty though.

Unsure on the TDA extension - his play this year might dictate a better deal but his past can't be excluded from negotiations. I used the Barrie deal as a baseline even though I think TDA is a bit better and younger.
Free Agent Signings
RESERVE LISTYEARSCAP HIT
2$750,000
2$750,000
3$750,000
2$750,000
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
7$6,500,000
4$4,000,000
3$4,500,000
3$850,000
3$850,000
3$850,000
3$850,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
7$8,250,000
1$2,000,000
Trades
1.
CAR
    For Forsberg at '22 TDL
    NSH
    1. Gunler, Noel [Reserve List]
    2. Suzuki, Ryan
    3. 2023 1st round pick (CAR)
    2.
    CAR
    1. 2023 3rd round pick (PHI)
    2. 2024 2nd round pick (PHI)
    3.
    ARI
    1. Bear, Ethan [RFA Rights]
    2. Lafontaine, Jack [RFA Rights]
    3. Tieksola, Tuukka
    4. 2024 1st round pick (CAR)
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2022
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the CHI
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the ANA
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the CBJ
    2023
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the PHI
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the CAR
    2024
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the PHI
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the CAR
    Logo of the CAR
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    22$82,500,000$82,318,584$112,500$582,500$181,416

    Roster

    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $7,750,000$7,750,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 7
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $8,460,250$8,460,250
    C
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $5,400,000$5,400,000
    LW, RW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    $8,250,000$8,250,000
    LW
    UFA - 8
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $4,000,000$4,000,000
    C
    UFA - 8
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $6,500,000$6,500,000
    RW
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $2,000,000$2,000,000
    RW
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $6,000,000$6,000,000
    C, LW
    NMC
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$500,000$500K)
    RW
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $839,167$839,167 (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
    C
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $925,000$925,000
    C
    RFA - 2
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $1,800,000$1,800,000
    LW, RW
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $850,000$850,000
    C, LW, RW
    UFA - 2
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $5,300,000$5,300,000
    LD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    RD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    G
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Arizona Coyotes
    $4,600,000$4,600,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 3
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $4,025,000$4,025,000
    RD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $2,000,000$2,000,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $2,000,000$2,000,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 1
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $762,500$762,500
    RD
    UFA - 2
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $850,000$850,000
    LD
    RFA
    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
    Logo of the Carolina Hurricanes
    $4,050,000$4,050,000
    LD
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1

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    Feb. 25, 2022 at 11:32 a.m.
    #1
    KFTW
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    Chychrun deal is an underpay
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 11:34 a.m.
    #2
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    Quoting: csick
    Chychrun deal is an underpay


    Perhaps. If you're looking at last year's version of Chych, definitely. If you're looking at this year's version, not really. I'd lean towards he's much better than he's shown this year but he's not likely to live up to top 10 d man status which ppl were hyping him up to be last year. Might need to swap one of the prospects with a higher-end one but I don't think it's wildly off.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 11:37 a.m.
    #3
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    Forsberg doesn't really have the leg to stand on in terms of asking for more than Svechnikov.
    vikhodush liked this.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 11:39 a.m.
    #4
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    Quoting: Caniac2000
    Forsberg doesn't really have the leg to stand on in terms of asking for more than Svechnikov.


    Agree - I was basing the value off of the fact that Forsberg wants more than Duchene if he were to sign with the Preds. So likely between the Duchene and Josi numbers is somewhere where it would have to settle. Again, I don't think this will happen - was more an exercise to see how it could fit with a realistic number.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:14 p.m.
    #5
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    Quoting: Caniac2000
    Forsberg doesn't really have the leg to stand on in terms of asking for more than Svechnikov.


    RFA vs UFA. he can simply say i'll sign somwhere else!
    WheEhlers liked this.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:17 p.m.
    #6
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    Quoting: vikhodush
    Perhaps. If you're looking at last year's version of Chych, definitely. If you're looking at this year's version, not really. I'd lean towards he's much better than he's shown this year but he's not likely to live up to top 10 d man status which ppl were hyping him up to be last year. Might need to swap one of the prospects with a higher-end one but I don't think it's wildly off.


    That offer would be beat by other teams for sure though. but thats a scary looking team to have. canes are already so strong and are gonna be a force for years.
    vikhodush liked this.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:21 p.m.
    #7
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    Quoting: vikhodush
    Perhaps. If you're looking at last year's version of Chych, definitely. If you're looking at this year's version, not really. I'd lean towards he's much better than he's shown this year but he's not likely to live up to top 10 d man status which ppl were hyping him up to be last year. Might need to swap one of the prospects with a higher-end one but I don't think it's wildly off.


    have you seen arizonas team though? does chych look bad or is the team just abysmal?

    On the forsberg note, carolina is building this thing the right way, trading for forsberg doesnt make long term sense.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:27 p.m.
    #8
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    Quoting: hanson493
    have you seen arizonas team though? does chych look bad or is the team just abysmal?

    On the forsberg note, carolina is building this thing the right way, trading for forsberg doesnt make long term sense.


    Agree ARI is awful. That doesn’t help Chych but his underlying metrics and isolated impacts have nose dived as well. There’s likely correlation there and being in a different situation likely brings him back up to his normal level. I just think that his results and metrics and the eye test will have an impact on his trade value.

    Agree on Forsberg - this was more a thought exercise on how or if they could fit him in long term. It shouldn’t impact them too much with some of the money coming off in a couple years but gets more challenging and leaves less room for error in future negotiations. I do think he’d be a perfect fit in the short term and especially this year, but I doubt canes would give up that package for a true rental.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:42 p.m.
    #9
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    Quoting: drambui
    RFA vs UFA. he can simply say i'll sign somwhere else!


    Then let him, he won't get 8.25 from ANYONE.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:45 p.m.
    #10
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    Quoting: Caniac2000
    Then let him, he won't get 8.25 from ANYONE.


    i think he will. some team will pony up in free agency.
    vikhodush liked this.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:48 p.m.
    #11
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    Quoting: hanson493
    i think he will. some team will pony up in free agency.


    Who? Nashville don't want him at that price. Who's going to pay someone that's good but not a star north of 8 mil?
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:52 p.m.
    #12
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    Quoting: Caniac2000
    Then let him, he won't get 8.25 from ANYONE.


    Quoting: hanson493
    i think he will. some team will pony up in free agency.


    Quoting: Caniac2000
    Who? Nashville don't want him at that price. Who's going to pay someone that's good but not a star north of 8 mil?


    I definitely agree that somebody gives him that much - whether it's the right move or not is irrelevant. It only takes 1 team to think he's worth that and hand it out. History is littered w/ examples of deals like that being made (Benn, Seguin, Skinner, Wheeler, Voracek, Duchene, Johannson, etc.). You'd think teams / GMs would learn but they tend not to, especially when inherently GMs are generally going to worry about the short-term versus the long-term because they're more likely than not going to be somewhere else in 5-8 years.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:53 p.m.
    #13
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    Quoting: Caniac2000
    Who? Nashville don't want him at that price. Who's going to pay someone that's good but not a star north of 8 mil?


    in a flat cap world... you might be right! maybe ottawa would try, they depesratly need a top 6 foward and they have to overpay to get ufa there. not.many team can afford him at 8 mil...
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:55 p.m.
    #14
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    Quoting: vikhodush
    I definitely agree that somebody gives him that much - whether it's the right move or not is irrelevant. It only takes 1 team to think he's worth that and hand it out. History is littered w/ examples of deals like that being made (Benn, Seguin, Skinner, Wheeler, Voracek, Duchene, Johannson, etc.). You'd think teams / GMs would learn but they tend not to, especially when inherently GMs are generally going to worry about the short-term versus the long-term because they're more likely than not going to be somewhere else in 5-8 years.


    None of those deals were made in a flat cap era... Forsberg shouldn't get more than 7.5
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 12:57 p.m.
    #15
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    Quoting: drambui
    in a flat cap world... you might be right! maybe ottawa would try, they depesratly need a top 6 foward and they have to overpay to get ufa there. not.many team can afford him at 8 mil...


    That's my point. There's not the space to let him get overpaid. I can see a few teams giving him 7.5... but north of 8 I think is out of the question.
    drambui liked this.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 1:02 p.m.
    #16
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    Quoting: vikhodush
    I definitely agree that somebody gives him that much - whether it's the right move or not is irrelevant. It only takes 1 team to think he's worth that and hand it out. History is littered w/ examples of deals like that being made (Benn, Seguin, Skinner, Wheeler, Voracek, Duchene, Johannson, etc.). You'd think teams / GMs would learn but they tend not to, especially when inherently GMs are generally going to worry about the short-term versus the long-term because they're more likely than not going to be somewhere else in 5-8 years.


    some of those guys definitely deserved the deals they got, wheeler has been pretty solid as a jet i think he earned that contract. on the other hand we all knew skinner wasnt going to live up to that deal. we all knew duchene wouldnt live up to his deal with nashville although hes having a nice bounceback season.

    in terms of comparables, imo the players and agents know long term the cap will rise a significant amount. on a 7 year deal by the end of it the cap hit % will be significantly lower than when it was signed. that being said, his best comparisons via the tool on cf are okposo/scott gomez/horton/lucic. however forsberg outscored all but gomez in less or equal games. he still has time to catch gomez in points through the next 12 games of forsbergs career. I look at some one like corey perry 451 in 560games (forsberg has 429 in 536) and perry made a 13.4% cap hit on the market. now do i think forsberg gets 11m on the open market no, i dont. but at 10% cap hit which is more than the 8-9% that okposo,lucic,horton all got yeah i think thats very very very possible i think a team could go slightly higher and hit 11-11.5% as well.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 1:04 p.m.
    #17
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    Quoting: Caniac2000
    That's my point. There's not the space to let him get overpaid. I can see a few teams giving him 7.5... but north of 8 I think is out of the question.


    its no longer a flat cap world, cap will rise next year to 82.5 and then preceeding years will rise even higher. nhl just got a significant boost in revenue from tv deals. no chance that cap stays flat. players will force a lockout again similar to mlb if they try and keep wages stagnant for a 3rd year. zero reason next year needs to be "flat cap" again.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 1:09 p.m.
    #18
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    Quoting: hanson493
    its no longer a flat cap world, cap will rise next year to 82.5 and then preceeding years will rise even higher. nhl just got a significant boost in revenue from tv deals. no chance that cap stays flat. players will force a lockout again similar to mlb if they try and keep wages stagnant for a 3rd year. zero reason next year needs to be "flat cap" again.


    Cap isn't certain to rise. It's still very 50/50. The TV Deal that would give the league more money was signed years ago. Players are STILL playing the league. They're not going to push the cap up now. Players agreed to a flat cap era for 5 years. It's been 3, the NHL has time left before they have to worry about a lockout.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 1:10 p.m.
    #19
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    Quoting: Caniac2000
    None of those deals were made in a flat cap era... Forsberg shouldn't get more than 7.5


    Over the course of the deal it won't be a flat cap - probably rises at least 1M the next 2 seasons and then ramps back up. We saw teams spend plenty last offseason (Jones, Werenski, Heisk, Couturier, Nurse, Dougie, etc.) when it was a true flat-cap and when it was still questionable in how long Covid would wreak havoc on attendance and revenue. Picture is much clearer now and will be this summer than it was last year.

    Again, whether he should or shouldn't get over a certain number is a different argument than how likely it is in him getting over that number.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 1:14 p.m.
    #20
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    Quoting: vikhodush
    Over the course of the deal it won't be a flat cap - probably rises at least 1M the next 2 seasons and then ramps back up. We saw teams spend plenty last offseason (Jones, Werenski, Heisk, Couturier, Nurse, Dougie, etc.) when it was a true flat-cap and when it was still questionable in how long Covid would wreak havoc on attendance and revenue. Picture is much clearer now and will be this summer than it was last year.

    Again, whether he should or shouldn't get over a certain number is a different argument than how likely it is in him getting over that number.


    Except those players you mention are ELITE talents and Seth Jones. Forsberg isn't an elite talent. He's very very good. He's kind of in the same tier as Teuvo. He's great, he's not Aho.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 1:21 p.m.
    #21
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    Quoting: Caniac2000
    Except those players you mention are ELITE talents and Seth Jones. Forsberg isn't an elite talent. He's very very good. He's kind of in the same tier as Teuvo. He's great, he's not Aho.


    We're not gonna agree with each other on this stuff - Teams have shown time and again they're willing to open their pocket books in all situations. A lot of the time it's not the right move but that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. I also don't think they're all elite. Jones Werenski Nurse Couturier are very good imo, not elite. Also think Forsberg is better than Turbo. These are all my informed opinions, might be right, might be wrong.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 1:24 p.m.
    #22
    Lets Get Kraken
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    The only concern I have at this point is the Skjei trade that was made in this ACGM. Canes payed a first for him when he was down in the dumps in terms of his play. Now that he is playing like nobody is watching, he gets what the Canes payed plus some. Skjei would return at the very least a first and a second rounder. Personally I would be asking for more than that, and my reasoning why would be for what he did in the series against Nashville. Slavin was injured going in to the series, and if Skjei had not stepped his game up, Canes likely don’t win that series. Is he a Slavin type player, no. But for the play he has shown for the Canes, he could probably get 2 firsts and a high prospect. He can play on the top pair if the need arises, and he can take pressure off your top pairing guys as well. He just eats minutes like it’s candy.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 1:28 p.m.
    #23
    Lets Get Kraken
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    Quoting: vikhodush
    We're not gonna agree with each other on this stuff - Teams have shown time and again they're willing to open their pocket books in all situations. A lot of the time it's not the right move but that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. I also don't think they're all elite. Jones Werenski Nurse Couturier are very good imo, not elite. Also think Forsberg is better than Turbo. These are all my informed opinions, might be right, might be wrong.

    Eh the Forsberg Turbo comparison is a good one, but they are both better than the other in certain areas of the game. Forsberg is a goal scorer, plain and simple. Turbo is a passer, most of the time, and he has a very strong defensive game as well. You can compare them all you want and say whichever is better, but it’s a lot like comparing Crosby to Ovechkin. Each have better attributes over the other but they are both good. It’s an eternal argument that can never be agreed on if both players are close to equivalent.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 1:58 p.m.
    #24
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    Quoting: Caniac2000
    Cap isn't certain to rise. It's still very 50/50. The TV Deal that would give the league more money was signed years ago. Players are STILL playing the league. They're not going to push the cap up now. Players agreed to a flat cap era for 5 years. It's been 3, the NHL has time left before they have to worry about a lockout.


    TV Deal was signed in 2021... before this current season... "years ago" what? players agreed to revenue repayment over a 5 year period. they never agreed to flatcap for 5 years. if revenue is repaid or earned early cap can increase.
    Feb. 25, 2022 at 2:13 p.m.
    #25
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    Quoting: evelutions2
    The only concern I have at this point is the Skjei trade that was made in this ACGM. Canes payed a first for him when he was down in the dumps in terms of his play. Now that he is playing like nobody is watching, he gets what the Canes payed plus some. Skjei would return at the very least a first and a second rounder. Personally I would be asking for more than that, and my reasoning why would be for what he did in the series against Nashville. Slavin was injured going in to the series, and if Skjei had not stepped his game up, Canes likely don’t win that series. Is he a Slavin type player, no. But for the play he has shown for the Canes, he could probably get 2 firsts and a high prospect. He can play on the top pair if the need arises, and he can take pressure off your top pairing guys as well. He just eats minutes like it’s candy.


    That was mostly b/c I didn't feel like arguing with fans from whatever team I moved him to haha - I agree we could probably get more for him if he were moved. I do go back and forth on him though. He does so many things well and steps up in some key situations, but then there's games or key moments where he makes some big / impactful mistakes and doesn't look like the same type of player. I think if we paid him 1-1.5M less it would make more sense in my head but at his AAV I guess I expect more.

    I'd rather keep him but if we want to make improvements in the top 6 F core and the top 4 D core, he seemed like the most logical candidate to move and free up some cash both short and long term. I think I'd be happy with a 1st & 2nd or something along that vain.
    evelutions2 liked this.
     
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