Quoting: BeterChiarelli
The majority of an NHL game is played at 5v5 and it's a better proxy for playoff games than combined game states. I'm more than happy to evaluate teams by that metric but I agree that they need more to contextualize them.
I actually hadn't realized that the Blues had the third-best powerplay. Their having the fourth-best PK makes sense when the context of their netminding is brought into the fold. I'd expect some sort of regression in special teams - decent rule of thumb that if PP%+PK%=100% you aren't overachieving - and something will have to give in terms of shooting percentages or save percentages. I identified that Husso is on a PDO bender: reality is the Blues are as a whole (19 skaters > PDO = 1.000) which you've also confirmed and part of that comeback down to Earth is going to require both Binnington and Husso seeing more "human" numbers. It may not happen soon, it could happen next season, but my point remains Husso is not the name Edmonton should pursue in a trade or in UFA.
This went off the rails a bit but I think it was a good discussion. You and I tend to be very firm on our takes and we've missed out on chances to collaborate like this. I like it.
I agree crazy save percentages will usually come down to Earth, but do not agree the same can necessarily be said about PP, PK and shooting pct. Some teams are just better than most in those areas. The Blues have ridiculous forward depth (when healthy, more like 2 1st lines, a 2nd and a 3rd/4th than 1-2-3-4 lines) and most of them have played together for a while now, both of which help to explain their special teams excellence. They also have two D-men and a few forwards with outsized stick reaches for the PK.
And the shooting % I already mentioned. If you watch a typical Blues game, they pass up a fair amount of medium chances to pass for better chances - this can be maddening at times, but they do capitalize on that extra pass a whole lot. If you see how they play, it makes sense they'd have a top shelf shooting %.
But yeah, this is not the same type of Blues team that won the cup, where they'd really control the puck/play and wear teams down on the O-zone cycle. This team can blunt force a lot of wins just through skating and passing. And if they clean up the turnovers in/near their D zone (they can be too cutesy sometimes), the analytic numbers will improve a lot. At this point, they're almost never in much trouble when they eliminate those kinds of mistakes.