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My final asking price on Nick Paul from the 4 teams that are linked to him

Created by: sensonfire
Team: 2021-22 Ottawa Senators
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 18, 2022
Published: Mar. 18, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Trades
1.
OTT
  1. 2022 1st round pick (TBL)
TBL
  1. Paul, Nicholas ($675,000 retained)
  2. 2022 2nd round pick (TBL)
Additional Details:
My final asking price on Nick Paul is a 2nd round pick or the equivalent.


Any team that meets the asking price should receive a full 50% salary retention.


According to the Fourth Period, the 4 teams that are linked to him are the Lightning, the Bruins, the Oilers and the Kings.


In the case of the Lightning, they don't have a 2nd round pick until 2024.


So, what will need to happen if the Lightning want Nick Paul is for them to give us their 1st round pick and we would give them back a lower pick.


Now, I know what you're thinking ...


You're thinking that Nick Paul is not the same player as Barclay Goodrow and he's not worth a 1st round pick ...


And that Nick Paul is a pure rental while Goodrow had 1 more year left on his contract when he was traded.



Well, what is often overlooked is that Tampa also received a 3rd round pick in the trade for Goodrow.


And that the difference between the two picks in the Goodrow trade is a high 2nd.


I'm willing to compromise.


My compromise is that instead of the Lightning getting a 3rd round pick along with Nick Paul ...


the Lightning would get back the 2nd round pick they lost in the Coburn/Paquette trade.


Instead of the Lightning dropping 54 spots in the 2022 draft (like in the Goodrow trade) ...


the Lightning would only drop 32 spots.
2.
OTT
  1. 2022 2nd round pick (BOS)
BOS
    Nick Paul


    50% salary retention


    https://www.thefourthperiod.com/trade-watch-list-2021-22
    3.
    OTT
    1. 2022 2nd round pick (LAK)
    LAK
      Nick Paul


      50% salary retention


      https://www.thefourthperiod.com/trade-watch-list-2021-22
      4.
      OTT
      1. 2022 2nd round pick (EDM)
      Additional Details:
      If ...


      1. The Oilers play in the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals ...

      AND

      2. Duncan Keith is in the top 4 among Oilers defensemen for TOI during the first 3 rounds ...


      Ottawa receives Edmonton's 2023 2nd round pick instead.
      EDM
        Nick Paul


        50% Salary retention


        https://www.thefourthperiod.com/trade-watch-list-2021-22
        Buyouts
        Retained Salary Transactions
        Buried
        DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
        2022
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the TBL
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the BOS
        Logo of the LAK
        Logo of the EDM
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the BOS
        Logo of the VAN
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the NYI
        2023
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the NSH
        2024
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        Logo of the OTT
        ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
        20$81,500,000$67,001,507$0$4,507,500$14,498,493
        Left WingCentreRight Wing
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $8,330,674$8,330,674
        LW
        UFA - 7
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $3,500,000$3,500,000
        C
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $4,750,000$4,750,000
        C, RW
        UFA - 4
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $3,600,000$3,600,000
        RW, LW
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $1,500,000$1,500,000
        RW, LW
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $2,000,000$2,000,000
        LW, RW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $1,100,000$1,100,000
        C
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
        C
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $997,500$997,500
        C, RW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $900,000$900,000
        LW, RW
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
        C
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $747,500$747,500 (Performance Bonus$107,500$108K)
        LW
        RFA - 1
        Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $1,700,000$1,700,000
        LD
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $4,500,000$4,500,000
        RD
        M-NTC
        UFA - 3
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $900,000$900,000
        G
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $1,200,000$1,200,000
        LD/RD
        UFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $2,500,000$2,500,000
        RD
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $787,500$787,500
        G
        UFA - 2
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$450,000$450K)
        LD/RD, LW
        RFA - 1
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $1,200,000$1,200,000
        RD
        UFA - 1
        ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $8,000,000$8,000,000
        LD
        UFA - 7
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $4,687,500$4,687,500
        G
        M-NTC
        UFA - 3
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $4,975,000$4,975,000
        RW, LW
        UFA - 6
        Logo of the Ottawa Senators
        $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$600,000$600K)
        C
        RFA - 2

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        Mar. 18, 2022 at 9:57 a.m.
        #1
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        Tampa still has to move out a roster player to fit under the cap
        matulix liked this.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 9:57 a.m.
        #2
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        Fair value, just don’t see a fit in Boston. While he would be an upgrade over Frederic or Nosek those 2 are not issues that need to be dealt with. Knowing he’s a pure rental also limits his usefulness to Boston.
        sensonfire liked this.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 10:00 a.m.
        #3
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        sensonfire
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        Quoting: Point21
        Tampa still has to move out a roster player to fit under the cap


        At 50% salary retention, Nick Paul's cap hit would be 675K.

        75K below league minimum.

        If a guy making league minimum was sent down to the AHL to make room for Nick Paul, Tampa would save 75K in cap space.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 10:13 a.m.
        #4
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        Quoting: Point21
        Tampa still has to move out a roster player to fit under the cap


        What's the Cal Foote situation? Most of the Tampa posts I see have him on the outside looking in.
        NDoody and sensonfire liked this.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 10:31 a.m.
        #5
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        Quoting: sensonfire
        At 50% salary retention, Nick Paul's cap hit would be 675K.

        75K below league minimum.

        If a guy making league minimum was sent down to the AHL to make room for Nick Paul, Tampa would save 75K in cap space.


        We dont have anyone that is Waiver Exempt and JBB wont risk sending Raddysh or Katchouk through waivers cause they will get claimed
        sensonfire liked this.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 10:33 a.m.
        #6
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        Quoting: Claesson4Norris
        What's the Cal Foote situation? Most of the Tampa posts I see have him on the outside looking in.

        according to management, they love the way he is developing. This was from an article from a Lightning beat writer on the Athletic: I was talking with assistant Rob Zettler the other day, and he said they are happy with Foote’s progress so far. “He’s killing plays down low,” Zettler. “Stopping players, their forward momentum is a big deal. He’s shown he can do that.” I asked if the Lightning would be comfortable throwing Foote in a playoff game, and Zettler said, “100 percent, for sure.”
        Claesson4Norris and sensonfire liked this.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 10:45 a.m.
        #7
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        Quoting: Point21
        according to management, they love the way he is developing. This was from an article from a Lightning beat writer on the Athletic: I was talking with assistant Rob Zettler the other day, and he said they are happy with Foote’s progress so far. “He’s killing plays down low,” Zettler. “Stopping players, their forward momentum is a big deal. He’s shown he can do that.” I asked if the Lightning would be comfortable throwing Foote in a playoff game, and Zettler said, “100 percent, for sure.”


        Interesting. I saw that most fans have him on the outside looking in and wondered if he might be available. Would be a nice target for Ottawa.
        sensonfire liked this.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 10:50 a.m.
        #8
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        Oilers can't move their 2nd, it's a conditional pic that is tied to the Duncan Keith trade.
        NDoody liked this.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 11:10 a.m.
        #9
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        Quoting: Claesson4Norris
        What's the Cal Foote situation? Most of the Tampa posts I see have him on the outside looking in.


        Sens D is looking a little fun in the coming years with Sanderson, JDB, Thompson and Brannstrom, but I would definitely think if you could get Cal Foote & pick for Paul it would be worth looking at.
        sensonfire liked this.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 11:11 a.m.
        #10
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        Quoting: Gregzky
        Oilers can't move their 2nd, it's a conditional pic that is tied to the Duncan Keith trade.


        True, but I see the Oilers as a great fit as a landing spot for Paul, he would do well there and he fills some holes there for sure. They also may overpay at the deadline because Idk who else they can really get and will miss on some other options.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 11:17 a.m.
        #11
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        Quoting: NDoody
        Sens D is looking a little fun in the coming years with Sanderson, JDB, Thompson and Brannstrom, but I would definitely think if you could get Cal Foote & pick for Paul it would be worth looking at.


        I think Bernard-Docker is the most logical trade chip for an RW this summer, so adding a big RHD with team control would definitely be something I'm into.

        I think Brännström's Sens career is hanging in the balance as well right now. Huge opportunity for him with Chabot out down the stretch again. If he finishes as well as he did last season I think he's got good odds of locking it down, but I think he might still end up gone. Which is a shame because to me he's so obviously a good player.
        NDoody and sensonfire liked this.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 11:25 a.m.
        #12
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        Quoting: Claesson4Norris
        I think Bernard-Docker is the most logical trade chip for an RW this summer, so adding a big RHD with team control would definitely be something I'm into.

        I think Brännström's Sens career is hanging in the balance as well right now. Huge opportunity for him with Chabot out down the stretch again. If he finishes as well as he did last season I think he's got good odds of locking it down, but I think he might still end up gone. Which is a shame because to me he's so obviously a good player.


        Yeah I hear that it is too bad their wasn't more of a market for a good RW that could include Paul at the deadline. I think a lot will come into effect the rest of the season now with chabot out. I agree thou Branstromm is either gonna finally stake his place in the lineup or be gone. There is also an outside chance that they could strike gold in the draft for a RW and go that road. Wright shots R, lol if they get real luckily.

        Do you put any stock in the rumours that they are now gonna keep Murray out for season and buy him out citing injury problems as the reason? I would wonder if management would have enough faith in a Forsberg / Gus tandem next season or have to make a move there as well?
        sensonfire liked this.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 11:38 a.m.
        #13
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        sensonfire
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        Quoting: Point21
        We dont have anyone that is Waiver Exempt and JBB wont risk sending Raddysh or Katchouk through waivers cause they will get claimed


        Then the Fourth Period is fake news.

        ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 11:44 a.m.
        #14
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        sensonfire
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        Edited Mar. 18, 2022 at 11:59 a.m.
        Quoting: Gregzky
        Oilers can't move their 2nd, it's a conditional pic that is tied to the Duncan Keith trade.


        Yes, they can.



        As long as 1 of the following scenarios never happen...


        1. The Oilers play in the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals


        2. Duncan Keith is in the top 4 among Oilers defensemen for TOI during the first 3 rounds.



        The devil is in the details nod
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 11:57 a.m.
        #15
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        sensonfire
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        Quoting: NDoody
        True, but I see the Oilers as a great fit as a landing spot for Paul, he would do well there and he fills some holes there for sure. They also may overpay at the deadline because Idk who else they can really get and will miss on some other options.


        Not true.

        Please see my response to @Gregzky
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 12:31 p.m.
        #16
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        Quoting: NDoody
        True, but I see the Oilers as a great fit as a landing spot for Paul, he would do well there and he fills some holes there for sure. They also may overpay at the deadline because Idk who else they can really get and will miss on some other options.


        Why would the Oilers pay a 2nd for a 4C rental? Seems a little excessive.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 12:51 p.m.
        #17
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        Quoting: Claesson4Norris
        Interesting. I saw that most fans have him on the outside looking in and wondered if he might be available. Would be a nice target for Ottawa.


        I know fans (me included) wouldnt hesitate to move him in the right deal for a dman with term (Mayfield) but dont want to move him for a straight up rental because next year he could easily get top 4 time and with only Cernak and Bogo the only RHD signed next year other than Foote it makes it hard to move him from a asset standpoint
        Claesson4Norris and sensonfire liked this.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 1:06 p.m.
        #18
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        Quoting: CD282
        Why would the Oilers pay a 2nd for a 4C rental? Seems a little excessive.


        He would be at minimum the Oiler's 3rd C, but mostly plays wing and can easily move up and down the lineup. He is great on PP, very good defensively, good size with good physicality, and can also add depth scoring. Given the cap hit with Sens retaining 50% - around 700k and the oilers cap crunch, they would be hard-pressed to find a better cost value add at the deadline.
        sensonfire liked this.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 2:05 p.m.
        #19
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        sensonfire
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        Edited Mar. 18, 2022 at 2:31 p.m.
        Quoting: CD282
        Why would the Oilers pay a 2nd for a 4C rental? Seems a little excessive.


        Why would the Oilers spend Sam Gagner + 2 seconds on Andreas Athanasiou of all people?

        He was a -45 when they acquired him and Kenny Holland didn't even bother qualifying him.


        Seems a little excessive.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 2:30 p.m.
        #20
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        Quoting: NDoody
        He would be at minimum the Oiler's 3rd C,

        Really? You think he'll play ahead of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?! Laughable.

        Quoting: NDoody
        but mostly plays wing and can easily move up and down the lineup. He is great on PP, very good defensively, good size with good physicality, and can also add depth scoring.

        So he's actually a 4th line winger then? That's worse... if you think he'll get a sniff on the Oilers powerplay then you haven't been paying attention. And his 5v5 scoring rate is worse than Kyle Turris' this year. That's real "depth"!

        Quoting: NDoody
        Given the cap hit with Sens retaining 50% - around 700k and the oilers cap crunch, they would be hard-pressed to find a better cost value add at the deadline.

        The fact that Edmonton doesn't have a lot of cap space means they won't be spending anything on depth wingers. For sure not a 2nd.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 2:34 p.m.
        #21
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        Quoting: sensonfire
        Why would the Oilers spend Sam Gagner + 2 seconds on Andreas Athanasiou of all people?

        Because he needed a goal-scoring winger?

        Quoting: sensonfire
        He was a -45 when they acquired him and Kenny Holland didn't even bother qualifying him.

        He didn't qualify AA because COVID changed the landscape entirely between the time of the trade and the QO period. It's not rocket science.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 2:40 p.m.
        #22
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        sensonfire
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        Quoting: CD282
        Because he needed a goal-scoring winger?



        He didn't qualify AA because COVID changed the landscape entirely between the time of the trade and the QO period. It's not rocket science.


        And he didn't get one because AA only scored 1 goal in 13 games for the Oilers.

        Seems a little excessive.



        That's ridiculous.

        Multiple players across the league received QOs during the 2020 offseason.

        The "change in landscape" did nothing to prevent that.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 2:42 p.m.
        #23
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        Quoting: sensonfire
        And he didn't get one because he could only score 1 goal in 13 games.

        Seems a little excessive.



        That's ridiculous.

        Multiple players across the league received QOs during the 2020 offseason.

        The "change in landscape" did nothing to prevent that.


        It did for Edmonton. It meant that they suddenly had no cap space as the expected cap increase didn't come through.
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 2:47 p.m.
        #24
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        sensonfire
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        Quoting: CD282
        It did for Edmonton. It meant that they suddenly had no cap space as the expected cap increase didn't come through.


        Or maybe because AA was a flop for the Oilers?

        And he didn't deserve his QO in 2020?
        Mar. 18, 2022 at 2:49 p.m.
        #25
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        Quoting: sensonfire
        Or maybe because AA was a flop for the Oilers?

        And he didn't deserve his QO in 2020?

        Whether he was worth $3M or not is immaterial - they simply couldn't afford him. It's that simple.
         
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