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2021-22 NHL Season Discussion Thread #21-TDL Edition

Mar. 19, 2022 at 2:39 p.m.
#426
Hop on the Slaftrain
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Quoting: justaBoss
Yeah, but I thought about it more literally. Does it mean that he score in elite rate in relation to how much he shoots or does it mean he has a great shot.

I got a bit confused honestly


It's the estimated value added by his shots contribution, and Boqvist is currently shooting at 20%.
Mar. 19, 2022 at 2:41 p.m.
#427
What in tarnation
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Quoting: SevenLeg
It's the estimated value added by his shots contribution, and Boqvist is currently shooting at 20%.


That high shooting percentage is not sustainable long-term, but I wonder how much impact does it have on that WAR rating

WAR has honestly been a bit ?? to me.
Mar. 19, 2022 at 2:42 p.m.
#428
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Quoting: justaBoss
So since for example Adam Boqvist's shooting is 100, how should that be interpreted?


Since the model is only considering data from this season it thinks Boqvist is a crazy good shooter since he has scored 10 goals on only 50 shots (shooting 20%) with approximately 4 expected goals. The model thinks he is an elite shooter because he can score more goals than expected and can score on a high percentage of his shots, however its likely that he has just been lucky this season - 20% shooting for a defenseman isnt sustainable

Percentiles are separated between D men and forwards and since this is an extremely high shooting percentage for a defenseman he ranks in the 100th percentile for that position
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 2:45 p.m.
#429
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Quoting: justaBoss
That high shooting percentage is not sustainable long-term, but I wonder how much impact does it have on that WAR rating

WAR has honestly been a bit ?? to me.


The crazy high shooting percentage does inflate his WAR, but it shouldn't have much impact on his expected WAR.
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 2:55 p.m.
#430
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Quoting: justaBoss
That high shooting percentage is not sustainable long-term, but I wonder how much impact does it have on that WAR rating

WAR has honestly been a bit ?? to me.


You definitely have to take WAR data with a grain of salt, especially since this is all /60 data and only for 1 season. Some player's WAR/60 percentiles can be very inflated by super high shooting or penalty differentials even if they are average in other categories

Adam Boqvist is a good example of unsustainable shooting inflating his WAR and Mackenzie Entwistle is an example of penalty differential inflating his WAR
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:00 p.m.
#431
What in tarnation
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Quoting: UpsideDownQue
You definitely have to take WAR data with a grain of salt, especially since this is all /60 data and only for 1 season. Some player's WAR/60 percentiles can be very inflated by super high shooting or penalty differentials even if they are average in other categories

Adam Boqvist is a good example of unsustainable shooting inflating his WAR and Mackenzie Entwistle is an example of penalty differential inflating his WAR


I also wonder why is Patrick Kane such a WAR nightmare given he's Top20 in points
Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:08 p.m.
#432
What in tarnation
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Damn Pulock.

That's a shot.
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:10 p.m.
#433
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Quoting: justaBoss
Damn Pulock.

That's a shot.


clutterbuck secondary assist, trade value just skyrocketed
Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:11 p.m.
#434
What in tarnation
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Quoting: Db1899
clutterbuck secondary assist, trade value just skyrocketed


Went from 6th to a 4th lol
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:13 p.m.
#435
Speak of the Devil
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Quoting: csick
Thank you Buffalo for winning yesterday. Go Devils


Oilers scored two minutes in…
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:13 p.m.
#436
KFTW
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Come on NJ you can win
Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:19 p.m.
#437
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Quoting: justaBoss
I also wonder why is Patrick Kane such a WAR nightmare given he's Top20 in points


Hes ranked pretty poorly by most advanced stats at this point in his career tbh. He has a (very) negative impact defensively on GA/60 and xGA/60 and is given very offensive deployment which allows him to rack up points. On offense his P/60 isnt as high as you would expect for someone who's top 20 in points since he gets so much ice time, but I still think the model underrates him offensively and on the PP. The model isnt perfect and there are likely many things that Kane does well (eg playmaking ability) which the model might not pick up on.

You can find outliers in a lot of these stats but in most cases I think WAR is useful as long as you dont take it as gospel
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:19 p.m.
#438
What in tarnation
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So did Beauvillier hook Peterson or did Peterson take his stick tears of joy
Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:23 p.m.
#439
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Peterson should be suspended minimum 5 games


Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:23 p.m.
#440
KFTW
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Quoting: justaBoss
So did Beauvillier hook Peterson or did Peterson take his stick tears of joy


Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski
Palat-Seguin-Johnston
Peterson-Benn-Gurianov
Raffl/Glendening-XXX-Kiviranta

Lindell-Heiskanen
Harley-XXX
Suter-Hakanpaa

Oettinger
XXX
Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:26 p.m.
#441
What in tarnation
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Quoting: csick
Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski
Palat-Seguin-Johnston
Peterson-Benn-Gurianov
Raffl/Glendening-XXX-Kiviranta

Lindell-Heiskanen
Harley-XXX
Suter-Hakanpaa

Oettinger
XXX


I'm not opposed to that but it's going to be mighty difficult to make it work financially.

Getting Palat would be great though.
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:28 p.m.
#442
KFTW
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Quoting: justaBoss
I'm not opposed to that but it's going to be mighty difficult to make it work financially.

Getting Palat would be great though.


Faksa has to go. And flip Dellandrea and a pick for Bear or something
Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:29 p.m.
#443
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:29 p.m.
#444
KFTW
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Apparently Nick Paul could be a sign and trade like Pageau. There’s plenty of interest. Imagine all that just to get a 3rd rounder after holding him out
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:30 p.m.
#445
What in tarnation
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Quoting: GarthBrooks



Tbh at least in CF people have been calling Brisebois a donkey too
Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:31 p.m.
#446
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Quoting: Db1899
the only 2 teams that Debcrincat makes sense for is NJ and ANA. They can afford to give up the necessary assets and still have a great lineup.

NJ
Ty smith, 2022 1st, Sharangovich , Foote

ANA
Zellwegger , 2022 1st , Pastujov , Comtois


LA or Buffalo could afford but idk if he fits.
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:32 p.m.
#447
KFTW
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Quoting: BuFfaLOFaN
LA or Buffalo could afford but idk if he fits.


LA could do it . Buffalo wouldn’t do it.

Kempe
Turcotte
Clarke
1st
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:32 p.m.
#448
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Quoting: Db1899
I can't believe NSH waived Phillip Myers, isles should put in a claim. So should Van and BUF


BUFFALO CLAIM HIM...
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:32 p.m.
#449
What in tarnation
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Quoting: csick
Faksa has to go. And flip Dellandrea and a pick for Bear or something


Whole lot of agreeing coming from here.

...does that even work...grammatically I mean
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Mar. 19, 2022 at 3:33 p.m.
#450
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: GarthBrooks



According to reports Chicago wanted Knies + 1st + another prospect for Hagel (Most likely Hirovinen or Voit)

So lets say Dubas spent the 2023 1st + Knies + Hirovinen would anyone be happy if he did no. They would go he really paid that much for this guy

If it was a 1st + Hirovinen k I would let that slide. But anymore oh god no.
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