TLDR at the bottom
So something I’ve been thinking about a lot as a Sens fan is the draft. Right now the Sens are sitting in 4th last in points percentage, giving them a 9.7% chance at 1st overall, a 9.9% chance at 2nd overall, and an 80.4% chance of picking in the 4-6 range.
If we don’t win the lottery and end up selecting in that 4-6 range, I anticipate we’d pick one of Slafkovsky, Kemell, Savoie, or Jiricek (preferably in that order for me, and this is obviously assuming Wright, Cooley, and Nemec are the first 3 off the board, which I feel like has a good chance of happening). I’d be fine with any of these guys and actually feel like this is an excellent outcome for the Sens. However if we do win the lottery, things get complicated imo.
Obviously Wright and Cooley are the presumptive 1 and 2 picks right now, and getting a better player (and a centre) is obviously a good thing, however the Sens are loaded up the middle with Norris breaking out as a top line calibre threat, Stutzle drawing comparables to other high end centres/high picks over the last couple years (rookie impacts comparable to Eichel, first 82 games scoring comparable to Lecavalier, Barkov, Draisaitl, Seguin) and looking like he can reach a 1C ceiling when given good linemates, and Pinto likely to be at least a good 3C with 2C upside (unfortunate that he was injured, we’d know a lot more if he was able to play all season but he did look good in the few NHL games he has played).
If Ottawa won 1st overall they’d obviously take Wright, but what do you do next? Now you have 4 high end centres, 3 of whom I’d argue are top line calibre, and one who is definitely middle six calibre at minimum, so running all 4 up the middle is simply a waste of assets, there isn’t enough ice time to go around. There are 2 logical options I think, which is either A) trade one or B) slide one to the wing. But all of these have flaws.
Norris: He has shown to have legitimate goal scoring upside (would be on pace for 43 this year if he hadn’t missed time) and has great chemistry with our 2 current best wingers, forming a top line that is arguably top 10 in the league (offensively they’re right there already, and there is more defensive upside, particularly from Norris who was great defensively as a rookie and regressed this year, but could bounce back now that he’s more experienced, sophomore slumps are normal). So it’s tough to argue to trade Norris due to his chemistry + being the most established centre in the organization. It’s tough to move him to the wing for similar reasons, and I don’t even know if he’s ever played wing.
Stutzle: He has the highest ceiling imo. I can easily see him as a 90 point guy, and he’s made strides defensively this season as well. He did play last season and the start of this one on the wing, but centre has always been his natural position, and his game has improved significantly at both ends of the ice since the move to the middle. So moving him to the wing with Wright would probably be the first logical move, but I’m not convinced that it would be successful. And I don’t think there’s anybody I’d be satisfied trading Stutzle for and not walk away going “we clearly lost that trade” and then being proven correct for the next decade and a half. Still, moving him to LW is probably Option 1.
Pinto: Too unknown of a commodity. I think he’ll be a perfect 3C, great in the dot in the NCAA (which should hopefully translate eventually), good at both ends of the ice, ability to play up and down the lineup. I would actually like to see him on RW with Stutzle (because I think he has the skill to keep up, and he’s probably better at faceoffs), because I think Greig is also gonna be a capable 3C, and this would be especially good if we get a 2LW (Slafkovsky, Fiala, Burakovsky, etc.). But moving him to the wing still leaves us with 3 1Cs on 3 lines, which isn’t great asset usage. And trading him would be the same result, plus his value is probably highest to Ottawa rn.
Wright: Idk if he plays wing, but trying him as Stutzle’s RW would be Option 2 imo. I also think he’s the easiest to trade, and would be more than willing to trade down from 1 to say 4 and take Slafkovsky while hopefully picking up another high quality asset (potentially at RD?) or from 1 to 3 and taking Nemec (while picking up a high end winger prospect, like if we could do 1oa+Brannstom+2nd for Guenther+3oa or something that would be sick) so Option 3 would be trading down.
Cooley: The same things with Cooley apply to Wright, however at 2oa I think you can also consider drafting Nemec. I do think Cooley is the slightly better prospect in the slightly more valuable position though. You’d also likely get less value in trading down, and I do think it’s important to stay in the top 6 or 7, so you probably won’t get a team willing to overpay as much as you might for 1st overall. So Options 1-3 for 2oa are the same as for 1oa, but there’s a 4th option, take Nemec. If that happened I would expect Ottawa to go hard after someone like Boeser, Konecny, Fiala, etc. and likely dangle prospects like Brannstrom and Jarventie plus the 36th-ish overall pick as the base of the deal. You could also justify taking Slafkovsky at 2oa imo, but I may be slightly biased. Consensus typically has him in like, the 5-10 range, but I think he has the highest upside in the draft and would consider him BPA at 4, and not much of a reach at 2 or 3.
TLDR: What does Ottawa do with all their centres if they win a draft lottery?
For 1oa:
Option 1: Stutzle on Wright’s wing
Option 2: Wright on Stutzle’s wing
Option 3: Trade the pick to move down into the 3-6 range and pick up a RD + draft a winger, or pick up a winger + draft a RD
For 2oa:
Option 1: Stutzle on Cooley’s wing
Option 2: Cooley on Stutzle’s wing
Option 3: Trade the pick to move down into the 3-6 range, same as above scenario however with a lesser prospect in the expected return
Option 4: Simply draft Nemec or Slafkovsky
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