Wanted to try something a little bit different from the usual Islander trades floating around ACGM. It's two names that have been floated as potential guys to move a ton, but a different spin than I've seen around these parts.
First - this is Lou's beloved "hockey trade". Varlamov with a single year of retention goes to Minnesota in exchange for Dmitry Kulikov. Minnesota has Jonas Brodin, Alex Goligoski, and Jon Merrill already signed as LHD next year, in addition to having Jacob Middleton's RFA rights, so they're moving from a position of strength. Fleury is a UFA this summer, and will most likely be able to command more than $2.5M on the open market, so the Islanders swoop in with a goalie with a good amount of playoff success in an almost completely cap-neutral trade. Kulikov fills in the hole the Islanders have at LD2 at an affordable AAV.
The second trade will probably get me roasted to bits, but hear me out!!! Josh Bailey has had some proven success playing on John Tavares' wing in the past, and would fit in much better in a more offensively-oriented system. Isles eat an extra $2.5M for 2 seasons, sure, but it's cheaper than a buyout and frees up an extra spot on their top 9. As far as Toronto, Bailey can step in and play middle-6 wing and PP2 and basically cost 2x$2.5M - very affordable considering his production (I could see him being a 55-60 point guy on TML). Toronto sends back one of their mid-range prospects (I picked Hollowell, but I'm not married to him) and a mid-round pick for the retention.
As far as the signings!
-Dobson 4x$6M? I dunno? I think he's probably worth more on the open market but I also wonder if there's an artificial ceiling to his AAV since Pulock is nominally RD1. I think there's room to move around with those numbers.
Valeri Nichushkin is an interesting guy to me - I wonder if he gets lost in the shuffle as a UFA this summer, with the bigger names like Forsberg and Gaudreau sucking up all the air. He's been a strong play driver with the Avs this year across his different linemates, so you've got to give him some credit, and he's been showing a good scoring touch this year. I think if you zero in on him July 1 you might be able to get him at an affordable 4x$4M. Could be totally off on that, though.
Wedgewood has been okay playing behind some bad teams this year, but he's mostly a placeholder. There's a few goalies that will be available around that $1.5M AAV this summer, so take your pick. I like him, though, so let's see if he can be coached up to be a stud in the Greco/Korn/Trotz system.
Lastly,Bellows comes back on a $900K-$1M deal, in that range, and gets a shot to prove his worth as LW3. A lot of the other organizational depth UFAs/RFAs come back on low dollar deals to fill out the depth charts. Gave Hutton 2 years so you can give him some run and see if he's a late bloomer that can take over RD3 from Scott Mayfield in 23-24, kept Koivula & Czarnik around as versatile forwards that can fill in across the ice, and Greene is a reliable hand for 7th D. These are all fungible dudes and if you want to put different names next to those salaries, go for it - but I could see Lou bringing them back for familiarity's sake.
The plan is to resign Marc Andre Fleury for cheap and that is the plan if everything goes well. Minnesota isn't trying to add more cap, so they say no
I have the Isles sending Varlamov with full retention so he only costs Minnesota $2.5M against the cap - it's basically cap neutral with Kulikov ($2.25M) going out.
I'm sure MAF is enjoying his time in Minnesota but I would be really surprised if he went from making $7M this year to $2.5M or less next season.
The years are right for Nichushkin but you probably need to offer 500k to 1 mil more. I’m really hoping Nichushkin comes back to Colorado but if he doesn’t I think it would really make sense for him to come to NY. You guys are a defensively based team and he would excel in New York as he is one of the best defensive forwards in the league.
I have the Isles sending Varlamov with full retention so he only costs Minnesota $2.5M against the cap - it's basically cap neutral with Kulikov ($2.25M) going out.
I'm sure MAF is enjoying his time in Minnesota but I would be really surprised if he went from making $7M this year to $2.5M or less next season.
MAF has already made his big money. If he's happy in Minny and Billy Guerin wants him back, I could see MAF taking a cheap deal to stay there.
We all know the Islanders need someone to play LD2, it's been an Achilles heel this year. The pending UFAs this summer are all either too expensive (Giordano, Ben Chiarot, Nikita Zadorov, probably Ian Cole, probably Calvin de Haan) or too bad (Nick Leddy, Keith Yandle, Jack Johnson, and those are the *best* of the rest). They're going to either have to pay up for one of the better UFAs, or they can move something from their position of strength(goaltending) to fill that hole. Kulikov is a guy who has typically been a strong possession driver throughout his career and would be a solid defensive part of a pair with Dobson. If eating some of Varlamov's cap makes it easier for Minnesota to make the deal, so be it - it's not my money, and eating some cap for one season doesn't really impinge on any future contracts the Isles might want to sign.
We all know the Islanders need someone to play LD2, it's been an Achilles heel this year. The pending UFAs this summer are all either too expensive (Giordano, Ben Chiarot, Nikita Zadorov, probably Ian Cole, probably Calvin de Haan) or too bad (Nick Leddy, Keith Yandle, Jack Johnson, and those are the *best* of the rest). They're going to either have to pay up for one of the better UFAs, or they can move something from their position of strength(goaltending) to fill that hole. Kulikov is a guy who has typically been a strong possession driver throughout his career and would be a solid defensive part of a pair with Dobson. If eating some of Varlamov's cap makes it easier for Minnesota to make the deal, so be it - it's not my money, and eating some cap for one season doesn't really impinge on any future contracts the Isles might want to sign.
I think kulikov is a great option for that spot but this is terrible value. Also i see you conveniently left out kulak
MAF has already made his big money. If he's happy in Minny and Billy Guerin wants him back, I could see MAF taking a cheap deal to stay there.
Fleury is definitely a wild card, since he's a guy who has rings and has made his money - usually a guy only has one of those two and it's easier to predict what he might wind up doing. I think Varlamov is a decent backup plan if MAF decides to zag when everyone else thinks he's gonna zig.
The other half of the equation is Varlamov - I'm sure if Lou wanted to move him, his 16 team NTC is going to make it much more difficult. That's half the league wiped out right there - the rumors have been that Edmonton and Toronto were 2 of the 16, so he obviously has a lot of control in his destiny. I could see the Wild being a team that he'd okay a deal to, though - they're a solid, perennial contender without the crushing pressure of being a Canadian hockey market.
I think kulikov is a great option for that spot but this is terrible value. Also i see you conveniently left out kulak
The more I've been thinking about it, the more I think a Varlamov trade this summer wouldn't command the same haul that they would have got at the deadline this year. You're only getting him for one playoff run instead of two, plus he controls enough of his destiny with his 16-team NTC to really limit the options. We know that Edmonton's not an option and that Toronto most likely isn't either; and when you look at the rest of the league you either have teams that are set in goal, whether through talent or contracts, the Arizona/Buffalo/etc tier of teams that aren't going to spend assets on a playoff-tested goalie, and then the handful of teams in the middle who either have a starter who's a UFA this summer, or just generally want to upgrade. I'd put Minnesota, Colorado, Edmonton, Toronto, and maybe a couple other teams in that group. Colorado probably re-signs Darcy Kuemper, so cross them off (also don't know if they'd want a reunion with Varly anyways.) Edmonton & Toronto have already been crossed off for us. Minnesota has MAF going UFA this summer and a huge cap crunch from the Parise/Suter buyouts, so they might get priced out of Fleury's services - which is where this trade comes in.
Missing Kulak was honestly an oversight when looking at the UFA LHD list. For what it's worth, I'd put him in the first bucket - he's 28 and hasn't made more than $1.85M in a season so far. This is probably his one shot at a big money deal and I could see him pushing for that. If he could be signed for $2.5Mish AAV, I'd think about it, but I think he'll be pushing for more.
Washingtons a possibility maybe vegas wants him. Is detroit interested bc theyve been terrible in net. But wither way just the retention is worth a 3rd and thats the most i would move for kulikov