Edited Apr. 26, 2022 at 7:42 p.m.
I hope you realize how disrespectful your approach is. I already said I wouldn't trade Brodie so I think that trade's value is off. In terms of the leafs getting completely hosed on:
- Kerfoot is a very versatile player, kills penalties and can play up and down the lineup. Do I think the Leafs would agree to trade him for a 2nd? Not at the moment. If they had to trade him for cap relief though, I doubt he gets a first, so ya I think the value is relatively close.
- Nylander. Having a career year, showing ppg consistency but finds himself skating on the third line. He's main knock is his consistent level of compete. When he's on he's one of the most noticeable players on the ice. When he's off, he's almost invisible and gives up careless turnovers. Jeannot is one of the most promising rookies in the league this year who plays with size and grit, is under team control for another year at $800k and will be an RFA after. I think the preds laugh in Dubas face if he offers Nylander 1 for 1. In tight cap times, the Leafs would hands down win that trade if the preds ever agreed. I'm not saying Jeannot is the better player as of right now but he has very high potential and brings cheap cap hit and a physical game capable of playing top 6.
- Holl. Look, he's looked much better since coming back but he hasn't look great. For that reason I don't see how he would get too much higher than a 4th or 5th rounder. For that reason I wouldn't trade him either. Unless Dubas get's blown away with a 3rd or 2nd, they're better off keeping him.
So what do you consider fair value for those players other than Brodie? It's nice that you want to tell me I'm out of my mind and insulting my opinions but at least have enough stones to suggest what you think is fair value then. At least attempt to add some reasoning as to why you think the value is so far off. I cheer for the leafs but even I can understand that many fans overvalue players on their favorite teams.
Yes it is disrespectful. I dont have time for the same old **** of people pretending like leafs have no trade value. You weren't here during the Nylander wars but I had guys earnestly tell me how Nylander was worth Jensen and a 2nd, or Pesce, or Faulk, or whatever crap they were trying to pawn off for a star player.
You say I'm over valuing when you (and huge amounts of CF) are sitting here chronically undervaluing our players. Why do I know that CF is low and I'm not high? Because every time the leafs make a trade the site freaks out and calls it a major leafs win as it is almost always way more than they incorrectly thought it would be.
I'll highlight exactly what I think a return is for easy reading. I should note that it will get cagey as their really isn't a trade I would accept for some guys (like nylander and brodie) that actually make sense for both teams.
Let's start with Kerf as I actually think he will be traded in the off season. If any other player on another team is putting up the numbers kerf is this site is screaming about how (a) the leafs desperately need a player like that and (b) how it will cost a 1st + to acquire him. 50+ points and all around usage at only 3.5aav is extremely valuable in this league. That easily returns a late 1st
(or equivalent) and the only reason I don't have it as more is because he only has 1 year of control left. As an aside there is no 'dumping for cap'. That is a cope to justify bad trades by bad GMs. You dump bad players, good players you trade for considerable value. There is literally no reason to think Dubas cannot pull off the latter given his history.
Holl might be moved. He also might not 2 mil is fine for a player like him. I expect a 3rd round pick
same as Dermott (who I also not only called would get a 3rd way in advance but also said it would be Vancouver, feel free to check my agm history. The name is:TRYING TO FILL OUT THIS TEAM ON A SHOESTRING BUDGET IS HARD). Could maybe swindle a late 2nd from a GM who really wants him. He is a depth D. The hysteria around him is overblown and he is a big RHD so that will always carry value in the nhl.
Now we get into the guys who won't be traded without something cataclysmic happening.
Brodie simply makes no sense, especially for the cost cited here. He is well worth his contract and fills an extremely important role that has him being very valuable to this roster. Any other player playing like he is on any other team would be demanding a 1st + easily and even then would be hesitant. He won't be moved and it isn't worth considering it.
Nylander is a star in this league. 1st liner, 70+ points who can threaten 40 goals and is a transition wizard. One of the best net front scorers in the nhl and not nearly as bad defensively as he is reputed to be (not that he is great by any means but he isn't awful). He has demonstrated an ability to be able to take over games and shows up big time in the playoffs even when others don't. TJ is a ****ing rookie who scored a few goals and makes a few hits. In no way ever is that worth near Nylander. Imagine us trying to say Bunting was worth Forsberg? Because Bunting has been better than TJ and Forsberg and Nylander are relatively comparable in overall impact in an average year (although arrive at those valuations in very different ways).
If he is traded, which I very much doubt he is, it will be for a dragon haul. A player like TJ would be one of 3+ pieces coming back and wouldn't be even near the most valuable one. Quite frankly there really isn't a trade in the entire league that makes sense for nylander that isn't trading up, rather than down (my dream that wont happen is Nylander + for J Robertson). This eval in particular from you and OP is a stunning example of both undervaluing Nylander and overvaluing the shiny new toy. The grass isn't greener, stop it. Enjoy the elite 1st line talent that we can play on our 3rd line because our team is so good.
Edit: I just want to note that all values listed here have the implicit understanding that the value is followed up by a 'or equivalent ' statement. There is more than 1 way to get a late 1st of trade value