A Hawks fan would be a better judge of this, but I don't think they will trade Debrincat. The return you have is nice, and if I'm the Hawks G.M I say yes to that deal, but I think they may hold on to him.

Flames won't be retaining anything

That's really bad for Calgary

-Matt Murray isn't much value to a rebuilding team given both his performance and weeks away from being 28 years old. I'd assume you included him is a cap dump ($6.25M 2 years left) as such?
-Alex Formenton is a good prospect, but not a top prospect
-Del Zotto is of no consequence to a rebuilding team, soon to be 32 years old and a 1 year rental, so assuming another cap dump here.
-Greig is blowing up the WHL but as we know that's a far cry from the NHL. Another good (not top) prospect nonetheless
-Bernard-Docker is likely behind Alex Regula and Ian Mitchell as our young prospects, and with Jones and Murphy also on the right signed long term, Bernard-Docker doesn't have a ton of value to the Hawks.

The net is quantity doesn't equate to quality here. It's going to take a top prospect, one a team's fans don't want to let go, plus a 1st round pick, a Formenton or Greig level prospect or young player to pry Debrincat away, and there's not a chance they include Johnson if it detracts from Cat's value. There are plenty of teams that will pay a very heft price for Cat and unlike Eichel, he isn't coming off of a major surgery, isn't a UFA in 4 years, and isn't carrying a 8 figure cap hit.

Ottawa has absolutely no spot for Monahan

They don't need 4th round picks. Unless they estimate than these 2 picks are worth 6 M$ for them? Melnyk is not there anymore so I don't know



- Murray : strong chance he ends up on LTIR. Ottawa doesn't need to trade him. No team is going to trade for him with his health status.
- Del Zotto is a detail here, 1 year left too.

Remove these to see a clearer picture :

2022 1st round pick (OTT) : Sens can't stop winning but the season is ending though, will finish 7th, 8th lor 9th last. Top-10 pick
Greig, Ridly : picked 28th OA in 2020, stock went up considerably since, worth at least a top-15 pick
Bernard-Docker, Jacob : 26th OA in 2018, did nothing to make his stock drop (au contraire), still worth a 1st round pick easily
Formenton, Alex : 22 y/o elite skater, 18 goals in his rookie season. Will probably end up as one of the SH leading goal scorers of all time. Worth another 1st
2022 2nd round pick (OTT)
2023 2nd round pick (OTT)

4 firsts (a top-10 and a top-15) and two 2nd round picks

I love DeBrincat but I am not doing that, not close.




Ridly Greig is absolutely a TOP prospect. 18th best prospect in the league on Button's last list.

Formenton was also a top prospect before graduating this season. He was ranked around 50th before the season.

A top-10 pick should also net you a top prospect unless you have no business conducting a NHL draft.

For some people, JBD will also be considered a top prospect. He has made every prospect list I have seen the last few years.

This is considerably MORE than the price Vegas paid for Eichel, particularly considering the KNOWN value of the first round pick.

The Hockey Writers usually do a pretty good job, Greig is ranked #56, JBD #66,
https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-top-100-prospects-ranking/

Another, JBD ranked #66 again falling from #43 last year
https://drive4five.blog/2021/10/29/nhl-top-prospects-trevor-zegras-cole-caufield-ben-kule/

None of these guys mentioned...
https://theprospectnetwork.ca/2021/10/11/ranking-the-top-50-prospects-in-the-nhl-ahead-of-the-2021-22-season/

Our definitions of top prospect is vastly different clearly. When I say top prospect I mean has elite level potential like a chance to be a Debrincat elite level player. While volume is there in the trade proposed for good level prospects, none of those players are projected to be elite level and easily a player like JDP could end up being a 3rd liner or not stay in the NHL. In the case of Ottawa a elite potential is a guy like Stutzle who's not ranked in the link due to playing 130 games in his career. Jake Sanderson is another top/elite prospect for Ottawa, maybe Shane Pinto. It's going to take moving one of those guys is my guess, and probably the 2022 pick to get a conversation going for Cat.

Thats not how it works lol, if you think Formenton is worth a 1st than 70% of the league is worth a 1st round pick. Same with JBD, he's a 1st round pick who's shown nothing in 4 years, teams would rather just use their 1st round pick and draft someone. Same with Greig, no team would trade a top 15 pick over just using the pick and drafting someone. Sot its basically 4 2nds, a low 1st and a top 10 pick for Debrincat, Ottawa is stupid to pass on a 40g guy like Debrincat for that.

All Canadian teams are on Tyler Johnson's no trade list. And that hardly gets Alex DeBrincat Quality for quality not quantity for quality.

this draft is extremely weak wouldnt be surprised if a lot of teams try and trade their pick as after wright, cooley, nemec, naz there really isnt a guarantee or high percentage chance that these guys even become top 6 forwards or top 4 D if hawks move debrincat their gonna want a holtz type prospect one whos shown he has a high chance of producing at the nhl level. as well greig is probably gonna be a third line maybe second line grindy type of player which isnt hard to find yes hes producing in the whl but the whl is a high scoring league his playstyle is effective in the whl but even go look at wjc they played him as a checking forward which is what i believe hell be almost like a brandon hagel. the hawks will want a ransom for debrincat because hes young and RFA there isnt a need to move him. as for JBD he isnt worth a first if he was im sure ottawa wouldve moved him cause he hasnt shown much in the ahl, and formenton is also not worth a first

The Hockey Writers is from January 11th. Button's list is from April 12th.

Agreed they do a good job in general, one of the best references on the subject. Sanderson, Pinto, Greig, JBD ranked in that order makes total sense for Ottawa prospects


But it's ok I am very used to people not taking my word on prospects. It usually takes about a year before a guy on my radar gets on other people's radar. Same thing happened with Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone, Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot, Josh Norris, etc. I have been doing that for a long time and more seriously since Duncan Keith was a prospect in 2003, he's pretty much the first future star I called. He was a 2nd round pick. Keith Yandle was my 2nd major call.

I'm not saying Greig will be as good as these guys but he is a TOP prospect. I have been calling it since last year when I saw him play in the AHL at 18 years old. Now people have been starting to catch up, hence why he was ranked 18th on Button's list. Sens fans finally consider him as the 3rd best prospect after Sanderson and Pinto.



"falling" is natural since a draft has happened since and JBD hasn't graduated. He's a defensive D-man, they are (rightfully) taking their time with him. His stock hasn't dropped at all. Ask the Sens organization, the AHL coaching staff, team Canada's coaching staff, College's coaching staff and UND fans, etc.



Ok sorry if I gave the impression that I was saying that any of these lists were gospel. I was citing it as ONE example. It's okay and it doesn't matter if a guy is on the list or not.

Regarding Formenton (for example, can't do it for all Sens prospects) : 74th here in Feb. 2021 and 39th in December 2020 in the 2nd link

https://drive4five.blog/2021/02/03/nhl-top-100-prospects-alexis-lafreniere-quinton-byfield-ben-kule/

https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/30531357/ranking-top-100-prospects-hockey-best-nhl-affiliated-young-stars-making



Well, even on the THW link that you gave, Greig was ranked 58th... There's 32 teams, it means that on average he's a TOP-2 prospect on every team

18th on Button's list 3 months later? It means THE TOP prospect on half the teams.

You can definitely have the definition you want, but mine looks pretty much carved in reality.

But if you "meant" ELITE level prospects then it's different and you're also not going to get one. How many of those are out there not already in the NHL? A Dozen? 15? Teams don't ever traded these

Dallas (rightfully) did not want to trade Miro Heiskanen for prime Erik Karlsson. Just like I wouldn't trade Jake Sanderson for Alex DeBrincat. You might call "murder" on that but I stand by it. Stutzle even less, of course.




lol who is JDP? I mean, if you don't know the initials by heart, maybe you don't know much about the player... People don't watch WJCs anymore I guess

JBD has been a "safe" project since pretty much being drafted. He won't be a big points producer but he will still be a quality NHL player.

If you wouldn't trade Sanderson for Cat, then the conversation is going nowhere; that's crazy talk unless you think Sanderson is going to be a top 10 defender in the league which I highly doubt.

Are you really shocked lol? He clearly thinks the Sens are the only team with prospects apparently.

Jake Sanderson is ranked 2nd on Button's list. I don't think I have seen him outside of the 3 of anyone's recent list. He's an elite prospect and yes I think he'll be very very good (I'm far from the only one)

Did you read where I said that "Dallas (rightfully) did not want to trade Miro Heiskanen for prime Erik Karlsson"? It was addressed to you so you should have.

That's not crazy talk at all. Many Sens fans had the exact same reaction as you when we learned that Dallas was not interested in doing that. Natural reaction but doesn't change the reality


On Cap Friendly, Minnesota fans have been asking for 2022 1st round pick (OTT) and Ridly Greig for Kevin Fiala (1 year older than ADB)

And up until recently it was actually the 2023 first, not the incoming Top-10 pick

How much better (talking about NOW obviously) is DeBrincat to be worth THIS + Formenton + Bernard-Docker + TWO 2nd round picks???


Very curious. I assume you have seen Fiala play




I think this opinion was the most accurate I found (someone else said it) :

JBD is likely worth a 2nd round pick, maybe late 1st right now. Better off keeping him instead of a pick.
Greig is likely worth a 15-20 OA. I'd also keep him.
Formenton is worth a 15-20 OA right now and I'd keep him too.

I perversely kept you for last since it doesn't look like you should be taken very seriously but absolutely love the "lols" you're using. There's no such thing as being "loled at" by people who really don't know as much as they would like.

So I went out and asked other people opinions about what was wrong in "Formenton is worth a 1st round pick"

I have made a poll asking a Sens fan community of long-term fans, very knowledgeable but also HIGHLY critical of their own team and its players.

The question was : "Would you have traded Alex Formenton for a late 1st round pick at the past deadline?"

Options were :

Alex Formenton (22 y/o, RFA) : 80 votes

1st round pick in 2022 (27th OA to 32nd OA) : 1 vote


The 1 vote came with that comment :

"I'm going to change my vote to the 27th-32nd so I'm the only one
but just know Id rather have Formenton"


Players value fluctuate over time. People don't think Brannstrom and Gustavsson are worth first round picks anymore but they had that value not that long ago. Formenton and Greig absolutely have first round picks value. JBD is closer to late 1st/early 2nd but despite what has been said here, he has been doing really well in the AHL. Not something you can see on nhis hockeydb.com page though.



Where was that said? Or even implied?

Would you trade Rasmus Sandin or Timothy Liljegren for less than a 1st round pick? For example.

Nice "lol" again!

Bad comparison on Fiala...
Fiala = .68ppg, .29gpg
Cat = .83ppg, .44gpg
...and Fiala is indeed a year older

Button's list is top prospects that haven't burned a year yet, a lot of young big names missing from the list as such. I wouldn't call certain 18 and 19 year olds because they're burning their first year on their ELCs non prospects; but that's just my opinion. Nonetheless, not doing Cat for Sanderson is a big gamble and not the smartest of moves. You have an elite goal scorer who is only 24 years old and proven (would be top 3 in the league on a good team), versus a non proven NHL entity...bird in hand versus gambling is always worth more hands down and no debate.

You asked sens fans and you don't think their opinions are heavily tilted? LMAO give me a break man, horrible set of data to presumably get a objective answer from.

I'm not saying Formenton isn't worth more then a bottom 5 pick in this year's draft...he is because this year's first round is pretty shallow. I would take a 20th overall next year's draft all day long over Formenton though. And especially next year, same thing applies to Grieg at this point. I get your high on your favorite teams prospects, but this isn't unusual for fans of their respective teams, it's called subjectivity which is why your poll of Ottawa fans is pretty much baseless in objectivity.

I wouldn't trade Liljegren for anything lesss than a top 10 pick, doesn't make him worth that to the rest of the league

I have stopped trying to change opinions because no matter what arguments you present, people usually are dead set on their own stuff. I'll still let you know this :

We are talking about players CURRENT value so I have absolutely no idea why you are talking about their overall career PPGs.

Look, I basically positioned myself very well financially just by being good at flipping assets. An asset's value from 6-7 years ago has absolutely no bearing on current value

I also just told you "talking about NOW obviously" in the post you quoted but you still made the mistake. Weird

Fiala being a year older is also not a big deal. Both are going to be RFAs in the near future

I'm not saying Fiala has more value (and never implied that), but I have asked a LEGIT question :

How much more valuable is DeBrincat on TOP OF what the Wild fans are asking for Fiala???



I wasn't shocked learning that Dallas wouldn't trade Heiskanen for Karlsson. In the end it was the smart move. San Jose traded Norris and picks (one of these picks resulted in Stutzle) to get Karlsson just to give him a huge contract that he wasn't going to live up to, unless he was still on his Norris level. Sens fans (and others) got up in arms against the Stars decision. They also bashed Dorion for not getting a good return for Karlsson. I was one of the very few who found the return to be good. I thought the Sharks 2020 first would be more around 10th OA but ended up 3rd OA finally, so even better than anticipated, of course.

Anyway, you'll see in the near future why people don't want to trade Sanderson.

Sure, I would like to add DeBrincat (anyone would) but there's a whole context to consider. First, the Sens have and will have several great/good goal scorers. Norris scored 35 G in 66 GP, Tkachuk scored 30 G in 79 GP, Stutzle scored 22 G in 79 GP and only turned 20 y/o in January, Batherson had an injury/sickness plagued season and still scored 17 G in 46 GP (30 goals pace). 22 y/o rookie Formenton scored 18 goals at ES+PK. All these guys are 23 y/o and younger. There's some other guys coming too

Sanderson will be a bigger need. The problem for years in Ottawa has been team defense. And it starts with the D squad. There's not enough quality depth after Chabot, he needs HELP. Some games they are forced to play him 30 minutes a night. Sanderson has the potential (and a very high FLOOR) to provide a whole new dimension to the defense, and to the team.

Well, I have been on that board since 2008 and I will easily say no. I have already said they were "HIGHLY critical of their own team and its players". They have destroyed a lot of players over the years. The players who usually survive them are pretty much only quality players, and even then lol. Jason Spezza was heavily criticized when he was in Ottawa. He's a 1000 pts player. Chris Tierney wasn't making the unanimity in 2018-19 even though he scored 48 pts. I could go on and on.



No of course it isn't "unusual" but you're assuming that I am overvaluing my team's prospects because I am a "homer". Well, in reality, I have been projecting hockey players for decades, never professionally but I have made easily over 100 K$ flipping hockey cards lol

Speaking of the Hawks, Duncan Keith was actually my first BIG call. I called the 2nd rounder a future star and looks like I was right. Over the years, of course I have been right and wrong, however I don't miss nearly as much as I used to. And it's really not because someone is a Sens prospect that it will influence my evaluation, it goes both ways. For example, I called Mike Hoffman as a "cup-of-coffee" guy... I called Lassi Thomson a bust before he came to NA and he has been progressing really well here. I had Gustavsson written off too. Was never really high on Curtis Lazar and Colin White, saw them as potentially good 3rd liners. I have been wrong the other way as well. I thought Christian Wolanin would be good but he plateaued early in the end.

That being said, here's some things that were said in that Sens community thread (the 2nd guy has been a professional scout) :

- "I don't think anyone of sound mind would have made that trade"

- "You hope a guy in the late 1st turns out even as good as Formenton showed last season. Would be moronic to trade him last year for a late 1st, especially for the Sens. Trading him at this past deadline for a late 1st would have been absolutely mind numbingly dumb."

- "Not a chance. A top 10 I would give serious thought to, but a late 1st is not good value for this player. He's going to be a 20 goal scoring, excellent PKing pest for the next 10 years. He's a borderline core piece, IMO."

I'm sorry but I'm turning down (without thinking) any offer of 2nd round pick value for Formenton, that YOU think it's subjective or not. The Elite speed 22 y/o skater has just scored 18 goals at ES+PK in his rookie season. He's good defensively and agitates a lot too. He has several more years of cost control.

If I made a similar poll with Nick Paul for a late 1st before the deadline, the vast majority would have taken the pick. He now has 14 points in 21 games with the Lightning and he is already recognized as a top defensive forward in the NHL

This is really not what you think it is.



So you perfectly understand why 100% of Sens fans (even the constantly negative ones) would say "go to hell" to anyone offering them 2nd round pick value in a trade for Formenton

But that's not how teams evaluate players. They simply don't take a 1 season snapshot of two players and say this is what they are worth based on one season. They 100% absolutely look at the body of work, and put more weight in the last couple of seasons, but also look for trends and outliers in stats; Cat has proven not only is he a better player but is pretty consistent while also becoming a more physical and effective 2 way player since his beginnings. Without question Cat has more value then Fiala. How much more? Hard to say as it's what the demand determines at any given time and is never a finite or definitive amount.

So you're saying your opinion is based on the team's needs, but not the value of individual players in the market which makes more sense. I still don't agree with you however as I don't see Sanderson being a top 10 (or top 20) defensive guy in the league.

Regarding the Dallas not biting on Karlsson, too many situational variables to determine whether it was good or bad. Dallas is falling off in the standings from where they just were recently. Would Karlsson still had injuries in Dallas? Would Karlsson been a big part of bringing them a cup or two in the last few years? Way too hard to say what Karlsson would have done in Dallas versus a bad team in San Jose.

It's all conjecture and subjective what you're sharing, no way to prove what you are saying is true or not. As mentioned, if I owned Formenton, I wouldn't trade him for a late 1st in this year's draft, way too shallow and I also don't hold as much value in late firsts or later round picks as valuable as most fans or even some teams. Way too much gambling involved. However, next year is deep and I'd take the 20th OA (not a "late" 1st rounder) for Formenton all day long subjectively speaking based on his performance so far and what he's shown going on 23 years of age.

I also didn't say they are ONLY looking at 1 year but career PPG for guys who played 5+ years is pretty useless to determine current value.

I also said that I thought DeBrincat had more value but Fiala has been closing the gap in a major way the last 2 seasons.

I wouldn't give up Bernard-Docker, Formenton and two 2nd round picks ON TOP OF what I would have to give up for Fiala.




Well, it's a little more complicated than that lol, but yes of course, it goes without saying, thought everybody knew that? team needs are really important when making a trade, this is very often THE motivation when making moves. This doesn't cancel the importance of assets value.

Anyway, we'll see about Sanderson but it also depends your level of knowledge/understanding of the game. Some people don't see Jaccob Slavin as one of the top D-men of the league. He was only 30th in D-men scoring




Not disagreeing with this and yes who knows, maybe they could have won 2 straight Cups if they made the move but understandably, teams hold on their BLUE CHIP prospects pretty tightly these days. These ELC/RFA years for guys who could possibly be impactful right away are worth GOLD to NHL teams.

Fiala closed the gap this season no doubt in points, but based on team needs (play maker, shooter, two way guy etc.) Fiala's value may be more or less, but all else being equal, points accumulated by scoring goals is always more valuable then assists as a whole; especially secondary assists....again all else being equal between two players.

It depends where Ottawa is at the moment. They've been in a death spiral for years and seems like they have more then enough prospects but without enough legitimate elite players. Can't win in this league without at least a couple of elite player. I don't see Sanderson developing into a elite player in the league, that doesn't mean he won't be as he's really good but like most prospects just educated guesses at this point. My understanding of the game is better then the vast majority of people having played at a very high level a step shy of getting a paycheck. I never rate defensive players by the number of points they put up, that's not the primary job of defense by definition and while nice when some D guys do put up huge amounts of points, it often comes at the expense of true defensive shortcomings. There are obvious exceptions to the rule where a d-man can do both well or a d-man who puts up so many points you take the sweet with the sour, but as a general rule I don't use points as a primary gauge of how good a defender is. To that point, Slavin is a hell of a player. De Haan is a hell of a player albeit regressing a bit with age and a bad team.

Yes, the cap freeze has been driving that more then usual, and a hard cap in general will encourage that behavior.