Forums/Armchair-GM

Who Says No

Created by: dannibalcorpse
Initial Creation Date: May 6, 2022
Published: May 6, 2022
Team: 2022-23 New York Islanders
Team Explanation
Signings aren't important here, just mostly looking for feedback on the trade.

Here's my reasoning:

You can kind of look at this trade as two one-for-ones smashed together. Let's look at the first half, Anthony Beauvillier for Connor Brown - the Islanders get arguable the better player in this one, but give up the younger asset (Brown is 28, Beau is 25.)

Brown is an all-way player (both PP & PK minutes with the Sens this year) while Beau is primarily a PP guy when he goes on the special teams. Brown is signed for 1 more year at $3.6M, while Beau has 2 more years at $4.15M. I'd say it's pretty even here with an edge towards Ottawa, with Beau coming off a down season and Brown being his normally consistent self.

That makes the second part of the trade Josh Bailey for Colin White. I don't think it's any stretch of the imagination to say that Josh Bailey has been a more productive offensive player than White - Bailey had 44 points in 74 games this season in a slightly down year for him; White has 28 points in 69 games spread over the last 2 years combined. Bailey gets a point in the "intangibles" column for being voted an alternate captain on a veteran-heavy team - something that could be valuable to a team coming out of a rebuild like the Senators. He also had 33 point in 42 playoff games over the last 2 seasons, so he has a lot of experience in that regard.

Basically, I'd argue that Bailey is the better player and, since the cap hits are basically equal ($5M for Bailey, $4.75M for White), you have to look at term. White's got 3 years left, and Bailey has 2. And, for what it's worth, Bailey's actual salary for those 2 years is $3.5M on the $5M hit - not sure if that's still as important to the Sens since Melnyk's passing, but I don't think it hurts.

I think Bailey has slightly more value than White; I think Brown has slightly more value than Beauvillier. I think it evens out when you make it a 2-for-2, and this would fit Lou's desired "hockey trade" he spoke of at this year's deadline.

So, I put it to the people of CF: which team says no to this deal?
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Bellows, Kieffer1$850,000
Dobson, Noah2$4,500,000
Salo, Robin2$850,000
Durandeau, Arnaud2$850,000
Koivula, Otto2$850,000
Wotherspoon, Parker2$850,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Hutton, Grant1$800,000
Murray, Ryan1$2,000,000
Trades
1.
NYI
  1. White, Colin
  2. Brown, Connor
OTT
  1. Bailey, Josh
  2. Beauvillier, Anthony
Buyouts
  • Rick DiPietro: $0
Buried
  • Richard Pánik: $250,000 ($1,375,000)
  • Matt Martin: $375,000 ($1,500,000)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2022
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the COL
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2023
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Logo of the NYI
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the NYI
2024
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$82,500,000$78,314,963$245,796$1,287,500$4,185,037
Left WingCenterRight Wing
Logo of the NYI
Lee, Anders
$7,000,000
LW, C
NTC
UFA - 4
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Barzal, Mathew
$7,000,000
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the NYI
Wahlstrom, Oliver
$894,167
RW, C
RFA - 1
Logo of the OTT
Brown, Connor
$3,600,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the NYI
Nelson, Brock
$6,000,000
C, LW
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the NYI
Palmieri, Kyle
$5,000,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the NYI
Parise, Zach
$750,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the NYI
Pageau, Jean-Gabriel
$5,000,000
C
NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the OTT
White, Colin
$4,750,000
RW, C
UFA - 3
Logo of the NYI
Bellows, Kieffer
$850,000
LW, RW
RFA
Logo of the NYI
Cizikas, Casey
$2,500,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the NYI
Clutterbuck, Cal
$1,750,000
RW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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Pelech, Adam
$5,750,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 7
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Pulock, Ryan
$6,150,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 8
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Varlamov, Semyon
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 1
Murray, Ryan
$2,000,000
LD
UFA
Logo of the NYI
Dobson, Noah
$4,500,000
RD
RFA
Logo of the NYI
Sorokin, Ilya
$4,000,000
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the NYI
Salo, Robin
$850,000
LD
RFA
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Mayfield, Scott
$1,450,000
RD
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the NYI
Johnston, Ross
$1,100,000
LW
UFA - 4
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Hutton, Grant
$800,000
RD
UFA
Logo of the NYI
Bardreau, Cole
$750,000
C
UFA - 1

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May 6 at 3:51 p.m.
#1
sensonfire
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Islanders unless Lou can get Brown an extension.


White has never stayed healthy since signing his massive contract.

Brown is a pending UFA next season.


This is a trade made in heaven for Ottawa.
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May 6 at 3:54 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: sensonfire
Islanders.


White has never stayed healthy since signing his massive contract.

Brown is a pending UFA next season.


This is a trade made in heaven for Ottawa.


Never underestimate just how badly Islanders fans want Josh Bailey gone, lol.

I think Brown would fit well on the Islanders but him being a pending UFA complicates it - although he wouldn't be the first guy to have been traded to the Lamoriello Islanders who stuck around after their contract expired. I think if you could get him at no more than $5M it'd be a great add to the team.

White could be a bounce-back guy if he stays healthy - but yeah, you never know with a guy who keeps getting hurt. I haven't followed as much, is he one of those "keeps injuring the same thing over and over and you're worried" kinda guys, or the "wow this guy is just super unlucky and keeps getting freak injuries" kinda player?
May 6 at 3:58 p.m.
#3
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Isles say no and your reasoning is incorrect in the write up.

Beau at worst is equivalent to Brown, and I would argue a better player who if his shot % was not 6 points below his career average would have had 8 more goals this past season. He is one of the only forwards with speed on the team and a big part of why Nelson scored so many goals this year is because Beau can get in quick on a forecheck and get the puck. He is not a PP specialist by any means, he only had 11 PP points to Brown's 9 last year.

White is unneeded just as Bailey is. Why would the Isles add a forward with more term who scores less when they need to move Bailey and his full contract out for cap space to re-sign Dobson and acquire a 2 LD.

Bad proposal for the Isles.
May 6 at 3:59 p.m.
#4
KFTW
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Very interesting proposal. I really wanna say yes tho.
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May 6 at 4:05 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Warrior24
Isles say no and your reasoning is incorrect in the write up.

Beau at worst is equivalent to Brown, and I would argue a better player who if his shot % was not 6 points below his career average would have had 8 more goals this past season. He is one of the only forwards with speed on the team and a big part of why Nelson scored so many goals this year is because Beau can get in quick on a forecheck and get the puck. He is not a PP specialist by any means, he only had 11 PP points to Brown's 9 last year.

White is unneeded just as Bailey is. Why would the Isles add a forward with more term who scores less when they need to move Bailey and his full contract out for cap space to re-sign Dobson and acquire a 2 LD.

Bad proposal for the Isles.


I think that Brown & Beau are very close in value, just think that if Lou was going to move Beau this summer, it would be with Beau having a lower value coming off an unlucky season. I don't think that Lou makes a trade for the sake of making a trade, but Beau & Bailey are arguably the forwards that are easiest to move if they want to (no NTCs and shorter term than the other big money forwards.) I feel like Brown would thrive in Trotz's system as well, but that's pure speculation on my part.

White's contract sucks because he can't stay healthy. Bailey's contract is hard to move because he's 32. One of those two things can change for the better in the future, and I think it might be worth the gamble that White can stay on the ice to bring his contract's value back out of the cap dump territory it's currently in.
May 6 at 4:07 p.m.
#6
KFTW
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Quoting: Warrior24
Isles say no and your reasoning is incorrect in the write up.

Beau at worst is equivalent to Brown, and I would argue a better player who if his shot % was not 6 points below his career average would have had 8 more goals this past season. He is one of the only forwards with speed on the team and a big part of why Nelson scored so many goals this year is because Beau can get in quick on a forecheck and get the puck. He is not a PP specialist by any means, he only had 11 PP points to Brown's 9 last year.

White is unneeded just as Bailey is. Why would the Isles add a forward with more term who scores less when they need to move Bailey and his full contract out for cap space to re-sign Dobson and acquire a 2 LD.

Bad proposal for the Isles.


I do agree Beau is the best player in this deal but not by much. White’s buyout is only 800k, not sure what Bailey is but if it’s higher than that, then this swap makes a lot of sense lol
May 6 at 4:18 p.m.
#7
sensonfire
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
Never underestimate just how badly Islanders fans want Josh Bailey gone, lol.

I think Brown would fit well on the Islanders but him being a pending UFA complicates it - although he wouldn't be the first guy to have been traded to the Lamoriello Islanders who stuck around after their contract expired. I think if you could get him at no more than $5M it'd be a great add to the team.

White could be a bounce-back guy if he stays healthy - but yeah, you never know with a guy who keeps getting hurt. I haven't followed as much, is he one of those "keeps injuring the same thing over and over and you're worried" kinda guys, or the "wow this guy is just super unlucky and keeps getting freak injuries" kinda player?


I'd say both.

If you want someone to place on LTIR for most of next year, he's your man.
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May 6 at 4:42 p.m.
#8
Islanders Fan
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Isles should decline
May 6 at 5:33 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: csick
Very interesting proposal. I really wanna say yes tho.


I am kinda torn on this one. While you get younger with swapping Beau for Brown, but he isn't a top 6 player that can play with Stuztle, so the roster spots are coming thin if Sens keep Formenton and Joseph and want to bring up prospects. Also, his numbers are likely not as great as Browns and Brown has leadership qualities that he brings to the table.

Swapping White and Bailey basically again just trades one problem for another, but the deal is one year less.

Really if your the Sens your not really upgrading to fil your needs here and you remove two guys that are leaders and loved in the room, So I would say no.
May 6 at 5:54 p.m.
#10
Shesterkin for Hart
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I'd rather have Beau over any of these players.
May 6 at 6:10 p.m.
#11
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I wouldnt touch this if I was Ottawa.

Brown for Beau is interesting but only because Brown is a rental at this point. Trading from a place of relative weakness (RW) to add to a strength (LW) doesnt make a ton of sense. In a vacuum I'd much rather have Brown. Also not interested at all in Bailey, 33 at the start of next season with two years left at 5m. Could very well see Formenton and/or Joseph passing him and as we already know, 5m sitting in your bottom 6 isnt ideal. White's buyout is ridiculously cheap, would much rather see them take advantage of that and use the money elsewhere.
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May 6 at 11:41 p.m.
#12
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I don’t hate it for Ottawa but I feel they would be better off just buying out white and spending his 5m elsewhere.
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May 7 at 3:43 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: Warrior24
Isles say no and your reasoning is incorrect in the write up.

Beau at worst is equivalent to Brown, and I would argue a better player who if his shot % was not 6 points below his career average would have had 8 more goals this past season. He is one of the only forwards with speed on the team and a big part of why Nelson scored so many goals this year is because Beau can get in quick on a forecheck and get the puck. He is not a PP specialist by any means, he only had 11 PP points to Brown's 9 last year.

White is unneeded just as Bailey is. Why would the Isles add a forward with more term who scores less when they need to move Bailey and his full contract out for cap space to re-sign Dobson and acquire a 2 LD.

Bad proposal for the Isles.


Tbf tho whites buyout is only like 500k a season. That said i still wouldnt do this deal
May 7 at 8:56 a.m.
#14
OTTAWA Sean
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Can't see either team wanting to make this trade.
 
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