Trading a top-5 pick

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: NHLfan10506

Team: 2022-23 New Jersey Devils

Initial Creation Date: May 6, 2022

Published: May 6, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Devils GM said they were open to trading back in 2022 draft. Their pick is currently 5th best for next week's lottery. Here are their odds of each spot:

1st overall: 8.5%
2nd overall: 8.8%
5th overall: 24.5%
6th overall: 44.2%
7th overall: 13.9%

Weighted average value = 5.11

----------

In the 16 years of the Salary-Cap era, no one has ever traded a known top-5 pick for a player.

A few #6 to #10 picks have been dealt for players

2017 (#7 in Stepan, Raanta deal)
2011 (#8 in Jeff Carter trade)
2012 (#8 in Jordan Staal trade)
2013 (#9 in Schneider deal)
2021 (#9 in OEL, Garland deal)

To find a top-5 pick in this scenario, you got to go back to years before Salary Cap began:

2003 (#1 when Florida traded #1 for Samuelsson and #3)
2002 (#4 when Philly sent Fedotenko to TB for #4)
2001 (#2 when Ottawa traded Yashin for #2 overall)
2000 (#4 when Islanders send Weekes to TB for #4)
1999 (#4 when Lightning traded #4 for Cloutier, Sundstrom, #8)
1993 (#2 when San Jose traded #2 for Markov and #6)
1988 (#5 when NYR sent the pick for a coach)
1984 (#3 when LAK traded #3 for Janecyk and #6)

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In other words, top-5 picks aren't traded straight-up for players. And they especially rare to be dealt along with other prospects for players.

These are the types of deals NJD should consider moving the pick:
1. A young, clear #1 goalie
2. An impact winger who fits “heavier skill”
3. A trade-down

That’s it

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Bratt, Jesper	7	$6,500,000
Wood, Miles	2	$3,000,000
Boqvist, Jesper	2	$900,000
Zetterlund, Fabian	2	$800,000
Thompson, Tyce	2	$800,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Burakovsky, André		5	$5,500,000

Trades

NJD

Gibson, John

ANA

Good young goalie under control for a few years (Gibson was first that came to mind, but surely there are others that fit here too)

NJD

Tkachuk, Matthew [RFA Rights]

CGY

A young impact winger who also fits our GM’s call for “heavier skilled game” (Tkachuk was first that came to mind…I am sure there other Tkachuks out there).

NJD

OTT

Trade-down

NJD

DET

Trade-down

NJD

BUF

Trade down

Buyouts

Cory Schneider: $2,000,000

Recapture Fees

Ilya Kovalchuk: $250,000

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2022
2023
2024

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$82,500,000	$72,275,000	$0	$1,865,000	$10,225,000

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Sharangovich, Yegor $2,000,000$2,000,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 1	Hughes, Jack $8,000,000$8,000,000 C UFA - 8	Bratt, Jesper $6,500,000$6,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Burakovsky, André $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 5	Hischier, Nico $7,250,000$7,250,000 C UFA - 5	Zetterlund, Fabian $800,000$800,000 RW RFA - 1
Holtz, Alexander $894,167$894,167 ($850,000$850K) RW, LW RFA - 3	Mercer, Dawson $894,167$894,167 ($400,000$400K) RW, C RFA - 2	Johnsson, Andreas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 1
Wood, Miles $3,000,000$3,000,000 LW UFA - 1	McLeod, Michael $975,000$975,000 C RFA - 1	Bastian, Nathan $825,000$825,000 RW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Siegenthaler, Jonas $1,125,000$1,125,000 LD UFA - 1	Severson, Damon $4,166,666$4,166,666 RD UFA - 1
Graves, Ryan $3,166,667$3,166,667 LD UFA - 1	Hamilton, Dougie $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD NMC UFA - 6	Daws, Nico $850,833$850,833 ($82,500$82K) G RFA - 2
Okhotiuk, Nikita $789,167$789,167 ($132,500$132K) LD RFA - 2	Smith, Ty $863,333$863,333 ($400,000$400K) LD/RD RFA - 1	Blackwood, Mackenzie $2,800,000$2,800,000 G UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Kuokkanen, Janne $1,825,000$1,825,000 LW, C UFA - 1		Gibson, John $6,400,000$6,400,000 G M-NTC UFA - 5
Tatar, Tomas $4,500,000$4,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 1		Bernier, Jonathan $4,125,000$4,125,000 G UFA - 1
Boqvist, Jesper $900,000$900,000 C, LW RFA - 1

Taxi Squad
Walsh, Reilly $925,000$925,000 ($0$0$0$0) RD RFA - 1
Mukhamadullin, Shakir $894,167$894,167 ($0$0$0$0) ($400,000$400K) LD RFA - 3
Foote, Nolan $863,333$863,333 ($0$0$0$0) LW RFA - 2
Thompson, Tyce $800,000$800,000 ($0$0$0$0) RW RFA - 2
Bahl, Kevin $795,000$795,000 ($0$0$0$0) ($82,500$82K) LD RFA - 1

May 6, 2022 at 10:43 p.m.

Ledge_And_Dairy

Joined: Jun. 2019

Posts: 38,240

Likes: 19,508

5th OA doesnt land you Tkachuk

BigShoots liked this.

May 6, 2022 at 10:44 p.m.

Lambchopz

Lambchopz17

Joined: Dec. 2020

Posts: 1,406

Likes: 479

I wouldn’t trade a top 5 pick for Gibson, would much much rather keep the pick or use it for something else and instead target Kuemper in FA.
Calgary is very unlikely to move Tkachuk, and if they do it will need a lot more on top of 5th OA

May 6, 2022 at 10:49 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 39,973

Likes: 18,305

Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy

5th OA doesnt land you Tkachuk

Well, according to ACGM the 5th overall pick doesn’t really land anyone.

But I was just using Gibson, Tkachuk as examples here. We need a clear #1 goalie. We could use a young power forward.

May 6, 2022 at 10:50 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 39,973

Likes: 18,305

Quoting: Lambchopz

Quoting: Intro

These are the types of deals NJD should consider moving the pick:
1. A young, clear #1 goalie
2. An impact winger who fits “heavier skill”
3. A trade-down

That’s it

Lambchopz liked this.

May 6, 2022 at 11:17 p.m.

BigShoots

Big Shoots

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 3,570

Likes: 1,087

Quoting: NHLfan10506

Well, according to ACGM the 5th overall pick doesn’t really land anyone.

But I was just using Gibson, Tkachuk as examples here. We need a clear #1 goalie. We could use a young power forward.

I don't think first overall gets you Tkachuk in this yrs draft. Miller is prob more in the 5th overall wheelhouse.

May 6, 2022 at 11:23 p.m.

DeadWingsv2

PlusMinus is stupid

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 7,319

Likes: 7,154

I really don't see the Wings trading up for what it would cost to get there

aedoran liked this.

May 7, 2022 at 12:08 a.m.

LIRIK

Joined: Mar. 2022

Posts: 2,669

Likes: 1,027

If NJ were to make a move on a young goalie, it should be Knight. He's probably not available, but for the 5th overall, Florida might consider.

May 7, 2022 at 1:18 a.m.

Kyle_Davidson

Kyle from Chicago

Joined: Feb. 2018

Posts: 9,831

Likes: 5,799

Since it’s seen as a top heavy draft I don’t think the number 5 pick is going to land you a superstar buy itself. If I were the devils I would trade up for Nemec/ or hope you win him in the 2nd lottery.

May 7, 2022 at 3:03 a.m.

Bannedforlife

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 577

Likes: 133

Nedeljkovic

May 7, 2022 at 3:35 a.m.

#10

aedoran

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 21,633

Likes: 11,992

You do realize all your example trades were made pre salary cap.

May 7, 2022 at 7:42 a.m.

#11

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 39,973

Likes: 18,305

Quoting: BigShoots

I don't think first overall gets you Tkachuk in this yrs draft. Miller is prob more in the 5th overall wheelhouse.

I don't think it would get Tkachuk either. I was using him as an example of the type of player we would like to add. We have a lot of young, speedy skilled forwards.

Miller wouldn't fit NJD's timeline.

May 7, 2022 at 7:44 a.m.

#12

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 39,973

Likes: 18,305

Quoting: aedoran

You do realize all your example trades were made pre salary cap.

Yes. First group of examples were from cap-era.

Second group was intended to be before cap era. I will edit so its more clear in Intro.

aedoran liked this.

May 7, 2022 at 7:48 a.m.

#13

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 39,973

Likes: 18,305

Quoting: DeadWingsv2

I really don't see the Wings trading up for what it would cost to get there

Would be a player (or swap of players) whose value is equivalent of 2nd round pick.
I don't have a name in mind. So just spitballing here....
Rasmussen? Lindstrom? Zadina swapped with one of our forwards. Maybe Pius.

May 7, 2022 at 7:51 a.m.

#14

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 39,973

Likes: 18,305

Quoting: LIRIK

If NJ were to make a move on a young goalie, it should be Knight. He's probably not available, but for the 5th overall, Florida might consider.

I agree.
I have offered both Dawson Mercer + Daws for Knight....and 5th overall for Knight.
In short, the timing doesn't fit. We'd be a year early.
They need Knight one more year and will be more likely to trade him in 2023 when he is RFA and they have Weegar and Huberdeau to re-sign.

May 7, 2022 at 7:54 a.m.

#15

NHLfan10506

Thread Starter

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 39,973

Likes: 18,305

Quoting: Kyle_Davidson

Yes. Back of napkin probabilities with our pick

85% we keep it and take best player available
10% we trade down a couple of spots (and pick up smaller pieces)
4% we trade down further in 1st round (and pick up medium pieces)
1% we trade it outright for a player

May 7, 2022 at 9:57 a.m.

#16

DeadWingsv2

PlusMinus is stupid

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 7,319

Likes: 7,154

Quoting: NHLfan10506

So, the Wings 1st and Suter to move into the top 5? If that's the case, it's at least worth a conversation...

May 7, 2022 at 12:04 p.m.

#17

Redstinger

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 1,809

Likes: 553

It's going to take allot more than that to get Tkchuck

May 8, 2022 at 8:16 a.m.

#18

Lenny54

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 1,224

Likes: 656

Quoting: NHLfan10506

I don't know if they trade Knight...what good is Bob if he continues to struggle come the playoffs. If Fla bows out to Wash after the season they just had they may be better off trading Bob and holding 50% if that is even possible.

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