Forums/Armchair-GM

Asset evaluation for potential Fiala trade

Created by: sh51_aa
Initial Creation Date: May 9, 2022
Published: May 9, 2022
Team: 2022-23 New Jersey Devils
Team Explanation
First and foremost, if GMTF is going to aquire Fiala it won't be without an agreement on a longterm extension. Furthermore, I also don't see GMTF overpaying a huge amount because Fiala is one year away from reaching UFA status.

As to the assets in the "Assets that may be included under certain circumstances)" - here is my opinion:

Sharangovich: Don't see GMTF trading him but if MIN really likes him and it doesn't cost any other premium asset (like any of the untradeables or an unconditioned 2023 1st) next to him he's clearly available. At the end of the day Fiala is still the better player between the two.

Severson: GMFT always stressing how hard it is to find RHD, so I don't think he's part of the picture here. As long as he's not signed to a (reasonable) extension I don't see MIN wanting him either.

Smith, Blackwood: Both have the raw tool to be part of the solution here. Furthermore, both had really bad seasons and their trade value is down to a point where I don't think GMTF will just throw either of them away. Especially Blackwood as long as there isn't a clear replacement in the organisation.

2022 1st: Don't see GMTF trading a premium asset that could be part of the longterm future unless it's at the draft and nobody is available that he really likes.

2023 1st: Apparently a strong draft. Yet, with the right condition (top 5-10 protection) I can certainly see GMTF trading the pick.
Trades
1.
NJD
  1. Fiala, Kevin [RFA Rights]
MIN
    2.
    NJD
      Untradeables
      MIN
      1. Hischier, Nico
      2. Hughes, Jack
      3. Holtz, Alexander
      4. Hamilton, Dougie
      5. Siegenthaler, Jonas
      6. Mercer, Dawson
      7. Bratt, Jesper [RFA Rights]
      8. Hughes, Luke [Reserve List]
      3.
      NJD
        Assets that may be included under certain circumstances (see description)
        MIN
        1. Sharangovich, Yegor
        2. Severson, Damon
        3. Smith, Ty
        4. Blackwood, Mackenzie
        5. 2022 1st round pick (NJD)
        6. 2023 1st round pick (NJD)
        4.
        NJD
          Everything else
          MIN
            Assets to facilitate trade
            5.
            NJD
            1. Talbot, Cam
            Additional Details:
            Rights to Fleury
            MIN
              Assets from the Wild that the Devils could be interested in and that could be part of a potential trade.
              Buyouts
              • Cory Schneider: $2,000,000
              Recapture Fees
              • Ilya Kovalchuk: $250,000
              DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
              2022
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the EDM
              Logo of the NYI
              Logo of the CBJ
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              2023
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              2024
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the NJD
              ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
              9$82,500,000$26,439,167$0$82,500$56,060,833
              Left WingCenterRight Wing
              Logo of the NJD
              Tatar, Tomas
              $4,500,000
              LW, RW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the NJD
              Mcleod, Michael
              $975,000
              C
              RFA - 1
              Logo of the NJD
              Bastian, Nathan
              $825,000
              RW, C
              RFA - 1
              Logo of the NJD
              Johnsson, Andreas
              $3,400,000
              LW, RW
              NTC
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the NJD
              Talvitie, Aarne
              $842,500
              C
              RFA - 1
              Logo of the NJD
              Kuokkanen, Janne
              $1,825,000
              LW, C
              UFA - 1
              Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
              Logo of the NJD
              Graves, Ryan
              $3,166,667
              LD
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the NJD
              Foote, Nolan
              $863,333
              LW
              RFA - 2
              Logo of the MIN
              Talbot, Cam
              $3,666,667
              G
              UFA - 1
              ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
              Logo of the NJD
              Bernier, Jonathan
              $4,125,000
              G
              UFA - 1

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              May 9 at 11:45 a.m.
              #1
              KFTW
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              So in conclusion, Sharangovich and a top 10 protected 2023 1st. Which is a deal I’ve previously suggested for Fiala
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              May 9 at 12:00 p.m.
              #2
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              Quoting: csick
              So in conclusion, Sharangovich and a top 10 protected 2023 1st. Which is a deal I’ve previously suggested for Fiala


              I'm not giving up Sharangovich and a 1st. Maybe Zacha and a 1st
              May 9 at 12:06 p.m.
              #3
              KFTW
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              Quoting: Devsfan25
              I'm not giving up Sharangovich and a 1st. Maybe Zacha and a 1st


              You have to give to get. You can’t have that many untouchables
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              May 9 at 12:11 p.m.
              #4
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              Give 'em Zacha and two 2nd round picks.
              If they say no, just wait until price drops, or shop elsewhere.

              Minnesota will have to get done before or at draft.
              Deadline for extending qualifying offers is 3 days after draft.
              And if he signs that, he would officially become a UFA at end of 2022-23 (and his trade value plummets).
              May 9 at 12:12 p.m.
              #5
              Hockey Fan13
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              Sens are pretty hot after Fiala as well, also rumored to be willing to part with their first. So I'm guessing a package would look like 2022 1st plus a prospect i wonder if Zetterlund would be a guy to look at?
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              May 9 at 12:14 p.m.
              #6
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              Quoting: Devsfan25
              I'm not giving up Sharangovich and a 1st. Maybe Zacha and a 1st


              I wouldn't give up either Sharangovich or 1st.
              I like Fiala...and he has had great chemistry with Nico.
              But can't do it without knowing contract info.
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              May 9 at 12:17 p.m.
              #7
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              Quoting: csick
              You have to give to get. You can’t have that many untouchables


              Sharangoivich + 1st is a price to steep to pay for a player that icould be a UFA in just a year. Agree with your statement, but don't see GMTF offering that package at this point.
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              May 9 at 12:18 p.m.
              #8
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              If Mercer isn’t on that “untouchables” list, he’s the guy the package is built around.
              May 9 at 12:22 p.m.
              #9
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              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              I wouldn't give up either Sharangovich or 1st.
              I like Fiala...and he has had great chemistry with Nico.
              But can't do it without knowing contract info.


              Let's put it this way. GM's don't make the trade without first being certain they can sign the player long-term or at all. If they're not, they don't ever expend the assets it would take in the first place.

              So if the trade happens, it'll happen because Fitz ( or any GM) is confident and already knows that he can resign Fiala.
              FentonsSoilders liked this.
              May 9 at 12:28 p.m.
              #10
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              Quoting: csick
              You have to give to get. You can’t have that many untouchables


              Agreed you have to give to get and quite frankly NJD are going to be in cap hell 4-5 years down the road once all these high draft picks are done with their ELC which will be only compounded if they trade for Fiala his next contract is going to 8 mil plus at 5-7 years which I agree NJD doesn't trade for him without an extension no team would trade for him without an extension done. I am not entirely sure the Wild trade Fiala if they can dump a couple of players they might be able to make it work to keep him. But if he is moved its probably going to be for a 1st rounder and depending on high the pick is will determine the next piece. Probably a prospect (higher draft pick = B level prospect lower draft pick = A level prospect) I would also bet there will be another prospect or 2nd/3rd rounder in there as well. This is based off of other trades like the Zucker trade a few years ago and more recently the Toffoli trade.

              The Wild are pretty deep at defense so trading for a dman prospect probably wont happen so Smith and Serverson are out, Sharangovich maybe but doubt it as he will need to be extended as in a years time. The Wild need guys on ELC.
              May 9 at 12:32 p.m.
              #11
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              Quoting: csick
              You have to give to get. You can’t have that many untouchables


              Sharangovich might not be far off the player that Fiala is in 2 years, he has that kind of upside. Devils aren't giving a big piece of their forward group to get this done. It will be for futures.

              Our first this year + Mukhamadullin. Something along those lines.
              May 9 at 12:39 p.m.
              #12
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              Quoting: zyyyp
              Sharangovich might not be far off the player that Fiala is in 2 years, he has that kind of upside. Devils aren't giving a big piece of their forward group to get this done. It will be for futures.

              Our first this year + Mukhamadullin. Something along those lines.


              We definitely take that. I'd prefer a forward prospect back in a Fiala trade, personally. But that gets it done, likely beats out the competition too.
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              May 9 at 12:41 p.m.
              #13
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              Quoting: FentonsSoilders
              Agreed you have to give to get and quite frankly NJD are going to be in cap hell 4-5 years down the road once all these high draft picks are done with their ELC which will be only compounded if they trade for Fiala his next contract is going to 8 mil plus at 5-7 years which I agree NJD doesn't trade for him without an extension no team would trade for him without an extension done. I am not entirely sure the Wild trade Fiala if they can dump a couple of players they might be able to make it work to keep him. But if he is moved its probably going to be for a 1st rounder and depending on high the pick is will determine the next piece. Probably a prospect (higher draft pick = B level prospect lower draft pick = A level prospect) I would also bet there will be another prospect or 2nd/3rd rounder in there as well. This is based off of other trades like the Zucker trade a few years ago and more recently the Toffoli trade.

              The Wild are pretty deep at defense so trading for a dman prospect probably wont happen so Smith and Serverson are out, Sharangovich maybe but doubt it as he will need to be extended as in a years time. The Wild need guys on ELC.


              You take the defensive prospect if they're a RHD. But only if they're that.
              May 9 at 2:34 p.m.
              #14
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              Quoting: RazWild
              Let's put it this way. GM's don't make the trade without first being certain they can sign the player long-term or at all. If they're not, they don't ever expend the assets it would take in the first place.

              So if the trade happens, it'll happen because Fitz ( or any GM) is confident and already knows that he can resign Fiala.


              Well then, if that is true....and he is only traded to a team that signs him to an extension, that limits the market to just only those teams that can extend him (and where he is willing to extend).

              Kind of kills the "bidding war"
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              May 9 at 2:39 p.m.
              #15
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              Quoting: FentonsSoilders
              Agreed you have to give to get and quite frankly NJD are going to be in cap hell 4-5 years down the road once all these high draft picks are done with their ELC which will be only compounded if they trade for Fiala his next contract is going to 8 mil plus at 5-7 years which I agree NJD doesn't trade for him without an extension no team would trade for him without an extension done. I am not entirely sure the Wild trade Fiala if they can dump a couple of players they might be able to make it work to keep him. But if he is moved its probably going to be for a 1st rounder and depending on high the pick is will determine the next piece. Probably a prospect (higher draft pick = B level prospect lower draft pick = A level prospect) I would also bet there will be another prospect or 2nd/3rd rounder in there as well. This is based off of other trades like the Zucker trade a few years ago and more recently the Toffoli trade.

              The Wild are pretty deep at defense so trading for a dman prospect probably wont happen so Smith and Serverson are out, Sharangovich maybe but doubt it as he will need to be extended as in a years time. The Wild need guys on ELC.


              Zucker trade was for late 1st and it included a cap dump...and he had 3.5 years on contract ....and was deadline deal.
              Toffoli trade was for late 1st and he had 2.5 years on deal and was a deadline deal.

              Not the best fits.

              Reinhart and Buchnevich are your comps.
              May 9 at 2:44 p.m.
              #16
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              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              Zucker trade was for late 1st and it included a cap dump...and he had 3.5 years on contract ....and was deadline deal.
              Toffoli trade was for late 1st and he had 2.5 years on deal and was a deadline deal.

              Not the best fits.

              Reinhart and Buchnevich are your comps.


              Pens 1st was expected to be a mid-round 1st at worst. More than likely a lottery pick. No one expected the Pens to defy expectations. Hell, it was even pushed back a year and turned into a unprotected 1st in its 2nd year.
              May 9 at 2:55 p.m.
              #17
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              Quoting: RazWild
              Pens 1st was expected to be a mid-round 1st at worst. More than likely a lottery pick. No one expected the Pens to defy expectations. Hell, it was even pushed back a year and turned into a unprotected 1st in its 2nd year.


              OK, MIN offer Fiala for Tatar, Bahl, and NJD's choice of 2023 or 2024 1st round pick?
              May 9 at 3:20 p.m.
              #18
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              Edited May 9 at 3:26 p.m.
              Quoting: NHLfan10506
              Zucker trade was for late 1st and it included a cap dump...and he had 3.5 years on contract ....and was deadline deal.
              Toffoli trade was for late 1st and he had 2.5 years on deal and was a deadline deal.

              Not the best fits.

              Reinhart and Buchnevich are your comps.


              Ok if Reinhart and Buchnevich are the comps hypothetically what would their trade value be this year if this year was there trade year? All three seem to have break out years this year scoring 30 goals and 80+ points (Buchnevich 76 but close enough). Would their trade value be higher or lower or the same then what they got when they were traded at 40 and 48 point seasons?

              Edit:

              Not to mention both of the Buch and Rein trades everyone on this site thinks that both Rangers and Sabres got fleeced..
              RazWild liked this.
              May 9 at 3:23 p.m.
              #19
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              Quoting: FentonsSoilders
              Ok if Reinhart and Buchnevich are the comps hypothetically what would their trade value be this year if this year was there trade year? All three seem to have break out years this year scoring 30 goals and 80+ points (Buchnevich 76 but close enough). Would their trade value be higher or lower or the same then what they got when they were traded at 40 and 48 point seasons?


              Exactly, the trade packages they got last year are NOT the trade packages they'd of gotten this year.
               
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