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Operation Dorion Drop How to win playoffs and capture hearts

Created by: budgeteam
Team: 2022-23 Ottawa Senators
Initial Creation Date: May 11, 2022
Published: May 11, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Pierre Dorion tries to navigate life as the GM of a budget team. He now has to answer to a nameless board of directors, who will scrutinize his every move. He has vanquished his foe, the wrong Pierre, McGuire - But can the right Pierre, Dorion, get the Senators back to the Stanley Cup playoffs? Or will he miss the playoffs again, and doom himself to a fait worse than death, becoming a hockey analyst on a French language AM radio station.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$5,000,000
3$2,250,000
4$8,000,000
2$3,000,000
1$1,200,000
1$1,200,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$6,000,000
Trades
1.
OTT
  1. Fiala, Kevin [RFA Rights]
Additional Details:
Fiala signs a 3-4 year deal @ 8M per season. Back loaded with the lowest possible salary in year 1. Sens want to push the budget, and Fiala wants to save on escrow, which will have a higher cap in 2023 at 10 percent than in 2024 at 6 percent. His agent Craig Oster advises him to sign a similarly structured contract to Sam Reinhart, that will see Fiala become a UFA before he hits 30 but after the escrow is made whole to the owners by the players. That way, when Fiala hits free agency, he will benefit from a rising salary cap.
MIN
  1. Brown, Connor
  2. 2022 1st round pick (OTT)
  3. 2022 2nd round pick (TBL)
Additional Details:
Sorry DJ Smith.
2.
OTT
  1. Karlsson, Erik
  2. Labanc, Kevin
Additional Details:
-The trade happens after San Jose pays Erik Karlsson's 10M signing bonus.
-No retention. This is patterned after the Phaneuf to OTT trade from a few years ago. Senators save 10M+ in real money in year 1 of the trade, a few million in year 2, but take on immense risk in years 3, 4, and 5.
-Senators are in "win now" or at least "make the playoffs now" mode, so they need to dump salary badly. This trade is just as much about dumping salary as it is about adding Erik Karlsson. Erik Karlsson contributing at all would be a cherry in top.
-San Jose also might send the Senators 2-3 AHL contracts to even out the amount of contracts (/50) being taken.
SJS
  1. Brännström, Erik [RFA Rights]
  2. Del Zotto, Michael
  3. Murray, Matt
  4. White, Colin
  5. Zaitsev, Nikita
  6. 2023 1st round pick (OTT)
  7. 2024 3rd round pick (OTT)
Additional Details:
-The 2023 draft pick is conditional. If the Senators miss the playoffs, it becomes a 2023 2nd round pick.
-Brannstrom doesn't have much trade value, maybe a 3rd round pick. But he was a big named prospect as of 1-2 years ago, so his inclusion allows San Jose to save face and spin things like they got a decent prospect back. Because EA Sports doesn't update their prospect potentials very often, it takes most hockey fans YEARS before they realize a prospect who was taken in the first round is no longer valuable.
-San Jose doesn't want any of Zaitsev/Del Zotto/Murray. They can be buried, or play in the NHL, it doesn't matter. They are cap dumps with shorter term than Karlsson. The entire point of this trade is to get San Jose out of the Karlsson contract 3 years earlier than they otherwise would.
-Labanc for White is a change of scenery move for both sides. It helps a small amount to offset Karlsson's money and term after Zaitsev and Murray expire.
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the BOS
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the BOS
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the NYI
2023
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the NSH
2024
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$82,500,000$80,981,547$0$4,450,000$1,518,453
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$8,205,714$8,205,714
LW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$4,975,000$4,975,000
RW, LW
UFA - 5
$8,000,000$8,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 7
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$5,000,000$5,000,000
C
UFA - 8
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, C
UFA - 3
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$3,000,000$3,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$600,000$600K)
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$4,725,000$4,725,000
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$2,250,000$2,250,000
LW
RFA
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$1,200,000$1,200,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$1,200,000$1,200,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$762,500$762,500
LW
RFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$8,000,000$8,000,000
LD
UFA - 6
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$2,500,000$2,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$2,750,000$2,750,000
G
UFA - 3
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$925,000$925K)
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$787,500$787,500
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$1,300,000$1,300,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the San Jose Sharks
$10,000,000$10,000,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$425,000$425K)
RD
RFA - 2

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May 11, 2022 at 2:12 p.m.
#1
KFTW
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Trading 7th overall for 3 years of Fiala is so dumb. Also throwing in Connor Brown who’s worth similar to Copp also dumb
May 11, 2022 at 2:12 p.m.
#2
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couldnt afford 2nd t
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Edited May 11, 2022 at 7:33 p.m.. Reason: Typo, wrote UFA instead of RFA re: Joseph & Formenton

Despite the cap hit of nearly 82.5 million, the real money salary of this roster would be well below 70 million because of a combination of San Jose paying Karlsson's signing bonus, and nearly every nearly signed contract being back loaded. Most players want back loaded deals right now, since escrow is higher in 2023 than later seasons. Depending on performance bonuses, this roster will likely cost around 70 million dollars.

Pierre Dorion has one job, get the Senators back to the playoffs. If he doesn't do that, he might have NO JOB. He will have a difficult time adding to the team due to the Senators internal budget, combined with bad contracts that he has given out to players like Matt Murray.

The Erik Karlsson trade isn't about adding Karlsson. It is about shedding significant short term money. That money enables the Senators to add both Giroux and Fiala to the roster while maintaining their budget team status. Anything Karlsson does to help the team on the ice or at the box office is a bonus.

The only player of significance that the Senators lose in this roster would be Connor Brown. While Murray, White, and Zaitsev are all NHL players, none of them contributed very much last season due to injuries or inconsistent play. This armchair GM keeps the real money budget under 70 million while adding Fiala, and Giroux to the main roster. Karlsson and Labanc are also added, but it is fair to be skeptical about how much either might contribute because of injuries (Karlsson) or stinking at hockey (Lebanc).

The lines displayed aren't the actual concrete lines or final opening day roster when it comes to which prospects on 2 way deals will or won't crack the roster.



______________

JOSH NORRIS EXTENSION
Josh Norris signs a backloaded 3 year bridge deal at 5 million dollars per season. It would take 8 years at 8 million to get Norris signed long term. The Senators are not sold on Norris as a 40-50 goal scorer. They also think that when push comes to shove, Norris will want to stay with the Senators as a UFA due to his closeness to Brady Tkachuk. Tkachuk will still have 3 years left on his contract when the bridge deal that Norris signs is over.

______________

2022 7th Overall Pick, 2022 2nd Round Pick (TBL), and Connor Brown for Kevin Fiala
Player/pick/prospect for Kevin Fiala. The Wild are dealing from a position of weakness because of Fiala's arbitration and RFA status (offer sheet risks). They don't have the cap space to hold on to Fiala and wait out a better return. The New Jersey Devils were rumored to be interested, but are now likely out due to their pick upgrading to 2nd overall.

They get a top 10 prospect at 7th overall, and another B or C prospect with the Tampa pick. Moving Connor Brown gives the Wild some depth at a cap hit (3.6M) that is cheap relative to what Brown brings in the top 6 or top 9 (20 minutes TOI, 53 percent D-zone starts, 50 point pace). Moving Brown also moves out 4 million in real money salary for Ottawa, which will help offset year 1 of Fiala's extension. Ottawa is also unlikely to sign Brown to an extension, since he will ask for 5+ million over multiple years. If the Wild are not in the playoffs at the trade deadline, Brown will be in demand as a rental, which will allow them to get a few more picks or prospects out of the Kevin Fiala trade.

KEVIN FIALA CONTRACT EXTENSION
Kevin Fiala signs a 3 or 4 year 8 million dollar contract extension. That will make him a UFA at 29 years old on July 1st 2026. Fiala is represented by Craig Oster. Who also represents Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk. Oster is a very aggressive agent. The NHL salary cap is expected to go way up after the escrow from the COVID-19 pandemic seasons is made whole by the players to the agents. Oster represents Sam Reinhart, who at a similar age to Fiala opted for a shorter term contract instead of a big long term deal.

______________

TIM STUTZLE EXTENSION
Tim Stutzle is on the final year of his 3 year ELC. He is eligible to sign a new contract starting on July 1st. He is offered the same contract as Jack Hughes. 8 years with an 8 million dollar AAV, with a 10 team no trade clause, and no signing bonuses. Does he accept that?

______________

Erik Karlsson, Kevin Labanc, and 1-2 AHL contracts (if needed) for Matt Murray, Nikita Zaitsev, Michael Del Zotto, Colin White, Erik Brannstrom, 2024 Senators 3rd Round Pick, and a conditional 2023 2nd Round Draft Pick (The pick becomes a 2023 1st round pick if the Ottawa Senators make the 2023 playoffs, and Erik Karlsson plays in 41 or more regular season games)
-Dorion re-aquires Erik Karlsson, not because he thinks Erik Karlsson can come back and be a top pairing defender, but because it clears up over 10 million dollars in salary space for the upcoming season, and is cap neutral the season after that. If Karlsson contributes on the ice at all, it is the cherry on top for the trade. The Senators give up the asset here, because that's a pattern with Dorion. Erik Karlsson's contract only becomes an issue 3 years from now when Murray and Zaitsev would be off the books. Dorion doesn't care about that, because he will be fired by then if he doesn't find a way to clear salary to make the playoffs. Not to mention, bringing back Karlsson might make him a folk hero in the Ottawa-Gatineau region.

-While San Jose has had a change in management, they still need to get assets back to save face. The only real valuable piece in the trade from the Senators is the 2023 2nd Round Pick that upgrades to a 1st only if the Senators make the playoffs with Erik Karlsson plays 41 or more regular season games. If the Senators miss the playoffs (even if Karlsson plays 41 or more games) it remains a 2nd round pick. Brannstorm has very little value around the league, but was a big name prospect a year or two ago, so he helps San Jose save face. Colin White and Kevin Lebanc both stink. They both have a few years left at big money. Swapping the two is a change of scenery move for both sides that gets the Senators the benefit of getting out of White's contract 1 year earlier without buying him out.

-In terms of the big contracts being swapped, while Murray, Zaitsev, and Del Zotto could possibly play for San Jose in the NHL, they all could also be buried in the AHL. This is similar to the Phaneuf trade Ottawa and Toronto made a few years back. San Jose doesn't want those three players, they want out of the Erik Karlsson contract without retaining. Trading for those three cap hits gets them out of the Erik Karlsson contract 3 years earlier.

-San Jose pays Erik Karlsson's bonus. This trade takes place in July to account for that.

______________

GIROUX COMES HOME
Giroux is rumored to want to play in Ottawa. He signs a similar contract to the one Pavelski signed a few years ago. Pavelski was at a similar age and point in his career to Giroux. He signed a 3 year 7 million dollar contract. Let's say Giroux goes a bit easy on Ottawa, since he clearly wants to play in his home town. He signs for 6 million per.

______________

FORMENTON & JOSEPH
Both sign shorter term deals to buy up more of their RFA years. This is how the Senators usually handle these types of players, they rarely go long term. Like all the deals signed in this armchair GM, both deals are backloaded.
May 11, 2022 at 2:16 p.m.
#3
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couldnt afford 2nd t
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Edited May 11, 2022 at 2:23 p.m.
Quoting: csick
Trading 7th overall for 3 years of Fiala is so dumb. Also throwing in Connor Brown who’s worth similar to Copp also dumb


Brown is not worth what Copp was worth.

Copp had a career year, and is worth more because of his size and style being rare and coveted by playoff teams. Even with that said, Copp brought back two 2nd round picks, one with very unlikely conditions that would turn it into a 1st. It is pretty unlikely that Brown as he is playing now returns two 2nds at the deadline because he will see a reduced role on a deeper team. Maybe he returns a 2nd and a smaller piece.

As far as Fiala for a 7th goes, while I wouldn't call the above Armchair GM realistic, I'm going off of what is rumored. The Senators need to move out salary if they acquire Fiala, and Brown makes sense as a piece that would appeal to the Wild as his cap hit is decent and they aren't rebuilding. He would be a solid 1 year rental for them to offset the loss of depth in their lineup that will come this summer.

Additionally, I wouldn't call Brown a "throw in". He is additional value that is logical to send to the Wild. I don't think the 7th overall gets it done, unless the market is really soft. 7th overall is valuable as an asset, but it isn't like it's this can't miss pick. This won't be like the 2020 draft where the third tier of prospects stretches all the way past 10.
May 11, 2022 at 2:24 p.m.
#4
KFTW
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Quoting: budgeteam
Brown is not worth what Copp was worth.

Copp had a career year, and is worth more because of his size and style being rare and coveted by playoff teams. Even with that said, Copp brought back two 2nd round picks, one with very unlikely conditions that would turn it into a 1st. It is pretty unlikely that Brown as he is playing now returns two 2nds at the deadline because he will see a reduced role on a deeper team. Maybe he returns a 2nd and a smaller piece.

As far as Fiala for a 7th goes, while I wouldn't call the above Armchair GM realistic, I'm going off of what is rumored. The Senators need to move out salary if they acquire Fiala, and Brown makes sense as a piece that would appeal to the Wild as his cap hit is decent and they aren't rebuilding. He would be a solid 1 year rental for them to offset the loss of depth in their lineup that will come this summer.

Additionally, I wouldn't call Brown a "throw in". He is additional value that is logical to send to the Wild. I don't think the 7th overall gets it done, unless the market is really soft. 7th overall is valuable as an asset, but it isn't like it's this can't miss pick. This won't be like the 2020 draft where the third tier of prospects stretches all the way past 10.


I’d rather keep the pick and overpay for Perron or Giroux or Palat. We don’t need to give up top assets for Fiala. Not worth it. Brown has averaged over 50pts last 3 years so he’s worth more than ppl think
May 11, 2022 at 2:25 p.m.
#5
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Take Murray out and yes. We already have a massive surplus of goaltenders and do not want the most overpaid goalie in the league coming in.
May 11, 2022 at 2:42 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: csick
I’d rather keep the pick and overpay for Perron or Giroux or Palat. We don’t need to give up top assets for Fiala. Not worth it. Brown has averaged over 50pts last 3 years so he’s worth more than ppl think


While I probably agree with you about the Fiala trade, it is rumoured to be the play the Senators are rumored to make. Which is why I included it.

I still disagree about Brown. I think you are overvaluing what he would go for as a rental. Look at what most forwards went for this deadline. Giroux was the only one to attract a 1st without conditions. If Brown goes to Minnesota, he will see a lesser role than in Ottawa. His minutes likely drop down to 17-18 minutes. He is already seeing a diminished role in Ottawa compared to his peak usage as they improve their lineup. Teams know he has been used in a greater role in Ottawa than he will play on their own team. The moment he leaves Ottawa, he'll be a 10-20 goal 30-40 point forward who plays 16-17 minutes a night. He is an excellent matchup winger, so he brings more value than his points, but that kind of player doesn't get a 1st at the deadline unless they are a huge physical presence, which he isn't.

He is a valuable player, but he isn't a 1st round at the deadline type player.
May 11, 2022 at 2:50 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: crankshaft
Take Murray out and yes. We already have a massive surplus of goaltenders and do not want the most overpaid goalie in the league coming in.


As the proposal says, Murray isn't in there because San Jose needs a goalie. They can assign him to the AHL and let him sit on the bench. Murray, Zaitsev, and Del Zotto are in there because their salary offsets Karlsson's salary. It's a fairly unique situation that lets San Jose get out of the Karlsson contract without retaining. It is eerie how similar the situation is to the Phaneuf trade. The Senators had a bunch of bad contracts that were preventing them from improving their roster. The Leafs wanted to move on from an overpaid former top pairing defender, but nobody would take him without retention. The Senators dealt the Leafs a bundle of really bad short term contracts, which let the Leafs get out of their longer term obligation.

With this trade, San Jose is out of the Karlsson debacle in 2 years instead of 5. Karlsson's cap hit roughly = Murray, Zaitsev, and Del Zotto, especially if 2-3 are buried. Additionally, San Jose walks away with Erik Brannstrom and a few draft picks. Given the context of Karlsson's injuries, ridiculous contract, and NMC, that is a huge victory for San Jose.

There would be zero chance the Senators do it without Murray in the deal. Murray makes 15 million over the next two seasons, most likely to play very little. Dumping that 15 million is the biggest part of making the trade work, along with San Jose paying Karlsson's signing bonus.
May 11, 2022 at 2:59 p.m.
#8
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That Karlsson trade is ambitious. I miss EK65 but I’d rather have 2years of Zaitzev at 4.5 than 5years of Karlsson at 11.5.
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May 11, 2022 at 3:04 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: budgeteam
As the proposal says, Murray isn't in there because San Jose needs a goalie. They can assign him to the AHL and let him sit on the bench. Murray, Zaitsev, and Del Zotto are in there because their salary offsets Karlsson's salary. It's a fairly unique situation that lets San Jose get out of the Karlsson contract without retaining. It is eerie how similar the situation is to the Phaneuf trade. The Senators had a bunch of bad contracts that were preventing them from improving their roster. The Leafs wanted to move on from an overpaid former top pairing defender, but nobody would take him without retention. The Senators dealt the Leafs a bundle of really bad short term contracts, which let the Leafs get out of their longer term obligation.

With this trade, San Jose is out of the Karlsson debacle in 2 years instead of 5. Karlsson's cap hit roughly = Murray, Zaitsev, and Del Zotto, especially if 2-3 are buried. Additionally, San Jose walks away with Erik Brannstrom and a few draft picks. Given the context of Karlsson's injuries, ridiculous contract, and NMC, that is a huge victory for San Jose.

There would be zero chance the Senators do it without Murray in the deal. Murray makes 15 million over the next two seasons, most likely to play very little. Dumping that 15 million is the biggest part of making the trade work, along with San Jose paying Karlsson's signing bonus.


With Murray it simply doesn't work for SJ cap wise.. We need to sign Meier next year and this deal makes that near impossible. Rather keep Karly and move Burns which will be easier.
May 11, 2022 at 3:12 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: OwnGoal
That Karlsson trade is ambitious. I miss EK65 but I’d rather have 2years of Zaitzev at 4.5 than 5years of Karlsson at 11.5.


I would not want to see Ottawa make that Karlsson trade, but there is a difference between what I'd like to see as a patient fan, and what a GM who is being pressured into building a playoff team under a budget will do.

For a GM who needs to make the playoffs, it is the definition of a win/win trade. Dorion clears 10 plus million in salary this season to go as all in as the Senators can go to making the playoffs. San Jose gets out of nearly 35 million dollars of Karlsson's cap while also recovering some of the assets they gave up for Karlsson in terms of draft picks (although, nowhere close to what those assets like Norris and the 1st turned into).
May 11, 2022 at 3:55 p.m.
#11
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Take out the conditions on the 1st becoming a 2nd and sharks might consider. I’d imagine they don’t want a 4th goalie either.
May 11, 2022 at 4:08 p.m.
#12
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Edited May 11, 2022 at 4:15 p.m.
Quoting: budgeteam

Despite the cap hit of nearly 82.5 million, the real money salary of this roster would be well below 70 million because of a combination of San Jose paying Karlsson's signing bonus, and nearly every nearly signed contract being back loaded. Most players want back loaded deals right now, since escrow is higher in 2023 than later seasons. Depending on performance bonuses, this roster will likely cost around 70 million dollars.

Pierre Dorion has one job, get the Senators back to the playoffs. If he doesn't do that, he might have NO JOB. He will have a difficult time adding to the team due to the Senators internal budget, combined with bad contracts that he has given out to players like Matt Murray.

The Erik Karlsson trade isn't about adding Karlsson. It is about shedding significant short term money. That money enables the Senators to add both Giroux and Fiala to the roster while maintaining their budget team status. Anything Karlsson does to help the team on the ice or at the box office is a bonus.

The only player of significance that the Senators lose in this roster would be Connor Brown. While Murray, White, and Zaitsev are all NHL players, none of them contributed very much last season due to injuries or inconsistent play. This armchair GM keeps the real money budget under 70 million while adding Fiala, and Giroux to the main roster. Karlsson and Labanc are also added, but it is fair to be skeptical about how much either might contribute because of injuries (Karlsson) or stinking at hockey (Lebanc).

The lines displayed aren't the actual concrete lines or final opening day roster when it comes to which prospects on 2 way deals will or won't crack the roster.



______________

JOSH NORRIS EXTENSION
Josh Norris signs a backloaded 3 year bridge deal at 5 million dollars per season. It would take 8 years at 8 million to get Norris signed long term. The Senators are not sold on Norris as a 40-50 goal scorer. They also think that when push comes to shove, Norris will want to stay with the Senators as a UFA due to his closeness to Brady Tkachuk. Tkachuk will still have 3 years left on his contract when the bridge deal that Norris signs is over.

______________

2022 7th Overall Pick, 2022 2nd Round Pick (TBL), and Connor Brown for Kevin Fiala
Player/pick/prospect for Kevin Fiala. The Wild are dealing from a position of weakness because of Fiala's arbitration and RFA status (offer sheet risks). They don't have the cap space to hold on to Fiala and wait out a better return. The New Jersey Devils were rumored to be interested, but are now likely out due to their pick upgrading to 2nd overall.

They get a top 10 prospect at 7th overall, and another B or C prospect with the Tampa pick. Moving Connor Brown gives the Wild some depth at a cap hit (3.6M) that is cheap relative to what Brown brings in the top 6 or top 9 (20 minutes TOI, 53 percent D-zone starts, 50 point pace). Moving Brown also moves out 4 million in real money salary for Ottawa, which will help offset year 1 of Fiala's extension. Ottawa is also unlikely to sign Brown to an extension, since he will ask for 5+ million over multiple years. If the Wild are not in the playoffs at the trade deadline, Brown will be in demand as a rental, which will allow them to get a few more picks or prospects out of the Kevin Fiala trade.

KEVIN FIALA CONTRACT EXTENSION
Kevin Fiala signs a 3 or 4 year 8 million dollar contract extension. That will make him a UFA at 29 years old on July 1st 2026. Fiala is represented by Craig Oster. Who also represents Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk. Oster is a very aggressive agent. The NHL salary cap is expected to go way up after the escrow from the COVID-19 pandemic seasons is made whole by the players to the agents. Oster represents Sam Reinhart, who at a similar age to Fiala opted for a shorter term contract instead of a big long term deal.

______________

TIM STUTZLE EXTENSION
Tim Stutzle is on the final year of his 3 year ELC. He is eligible to sign a new contract starting on July 1st. He is offered the same contract as Jack Hughes. 8 years with an 8 million dollar AAV, with a 10 team no trade clause, and no signing bonuses. Does he accept that?

______________

Erik Karlsson, Kevin Labanc, and 1-2 AHL contracts (if needed) for Matt Murray, Nikita Zaitsev, Michael Del Zotto, Colin White, Erik Brannstrom, 2024 Senators 3rd Round Pick, and a conditional 2023 2nd Round Draft Pick (The pick becomes a 2023 1st round pick if the Ottawa Senators make the 2023 playoffs, and Erik Karlsson plays in 41 or more regular season games)
-Dorion re-aquires Erik Karlsson, not because he thinks Erik Karlsson can come back and be a top pairing defender, but because it clears up over 10 million dollars in salary space for the upcoming season, and is cap neutral the season after that. If Karlsson contributes on the ice at all, it is the cherry on top for the trade. The Senators give up the asset here, because that's a pattern with Dorion. Erik Karlsson's contract only becomes an issue 3 years from now when Murray and Zaitsev would be off the books. Dorion doesn't care about that, because he will be fired by then if he doesn't find a way to clear salary to make the playoffs. Not to mention, bringing back Karlsson might make him a folk hero in the Ottawa-Gatineau region.

-While San Jose has had a change in management, they still need to get assets back to save face. The only real valuable piece in the trade from the Senators is the 2023 2nd Round Pick that upgrades to a 1st only if the Senators make the playoffs with Erik Karlsson plays 41 or more regular season games. If the Senators miss the playoffs (even if Karlsson plays 41 or more games) it remains a 2nd round pick. Brannstorm has very little value around the league, but was a big name prospect a year or two ago, so he helps San Jose save face. Colin White and Kevin Lebanc both stink. They both have a few years left at big money. Swapping the two is a change of scenery move for both sides that gets the Senators the benefit of getting out of White's contract 1 year earlier without buying him out.

-In terms of the big contracts being swapped, while Murray, Zaitsev, and Del Zotto could possibly play for San Jose in the NHL, they all could also be buried in the AHL. This is similar to the Phaneuf trade Ottawa and Toronto made a few years back. San Jose doesn't want those three players, they want out of the Erik Karlsson contract without retaining. Trading for those three cap hits gets them out of the Erik Karlsson contract 3 years earlier.

-San Jose pays Erik Karlsson's bonus. This trade takes place in July to account for that.

______________

GIROUX COMES HOME
Giroux is rumored to want to play in Ottawa. He signs a similar contract to the one Pavelski signed a few years ago. Pavelski was at a similar age and point in his career to Giroux. He signed a 3 year 7 million dollar contract. Let's say Giroux goes a bit easy on Ottawa, since he clearly wants to play in his home town. He signs for 6 million per.

______________

FORMENTON & JOSEPH
Both sign shorter term deals to buy up more of their UFA years. This is how the Senators usually handle these types of players, they rarely go long term. Like all the deals signed in this armchair GM, both deals are backloaded.


I mean this is a wonderful indepth analysis of everyone involved. But it's still off.

Namely that Fiala has been asking after a long-term contract for the last four years. I don't see why that would suddenly change. And Fiala currently is represented by Newport Sports Management Inc.

https://www.thehockeyagency.com/players-detail/115
May 11, 2022 at 4:32 p.m.
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Quoting: RazWild
I mean this is a wonderful indepth analysis of everyone involved. But it's still off.

Namely that Fiala has been asking after a long-term contract for the last four years. I don't see why that would suddenly change. And Fiala currently is represented by Newport Sports Management Inc.

https://www.thehockeyagency.com/players-detail/115


His agent is Craig Oster. Oster is part of Newport.

A 4 year deal now is not much different than if he signed 5-6 years last year when he was looking for something long term.

A 4 year deal brings him to UFA status at 29. That way, he can cash in on another big 7-8 year contract, and maximize his career earnings. The salary cap is expected to start rising substantially starting in 2 or so years when escrow is paid back to the owners.

A 6+ year deal now means he hits free agency between 32-34, which will be less ideal timing wise.

Sam Reinhart signed a similar contract in terms of structure.
May 11, 2022 at 4:43 p.m.
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Quoting: glarson17
Take out the conditions on the 1st becoming a 2nd and sharks might consider. I’d imagine they don’t want a 4th goalie either.


As mentioned before, Murray is a paper transaction.

They won't have the leverage to get a 1st because Karlsson's contract is the worst in the league and there will be no destinations. A 2nd+3rd+Brannstrom is an incredible return given the context. Karlsson has failed to stay healthy or adapt in role to his declining ability. I've always held out hope he would return to form, but if the have layoff he had from playing because of the pandemic did not result in him healing up ala Selanne during the lockout, it's unlikely to happen. He will go on streaks where be is amazing, but overall he is nearly 60M of a cap related headache. San Jose gets out of 60+ percent of that within two years WHILE receiving assets....all predicated on Ottawa being a budget team, which could change any minute with new ownership and then the deal would be off the table. That's an amazing deal for San Jose unless you think there would be an actual market for Karlsson (which there won't be).

What does Karlsson get if he is a UFA this summer? Would he even get half of the 57.5 million on his current deal? I don't think so. Too much concern over injuries. He is already a year passed the deadline for will he or won't be bounce back.
May 11, 2022 at 5:03 p.m.
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Quoting: budgeteam
As mentioned before, Murray is a paper transaction.

They won't have the leverage to get a 1st because Karlsson's contract is the worst in the league and there will be no destinations. A 2nd+3rd+Brannstrom is an incredible return given the context. Karlsson has failed to stay healthy or adapt in role to his declining ability. I've always held out hope he would return to form, but if the have layoff he had from playing because of the pandemic did not result in him healing up ala Selanne during the lockout, it's unlikely to happen. He will go on streaks where be is amazing, but overall he is nearly 60M of a cap related headache. San Jose gets out of 60+ percent of that within two years WHILE receiving assets....all predicated on Ottawa being a budget team, which could change any minute with new ownership and then the deal would be off the table. That's an amazing deal for San Jose unless you think there would be an actual market for Karlsson (which there won't be).

What does Karlsson get if he is a UFA this summer? Would he even get half of the 57.5 million on his current deal? I don't think so. Too much concern over injuries. He is already a year passed the deadline for will he or won't be bounce back.


To be frank, his ability isn’t declining. He has had injury problems that have hindered his production. He was playing his best hockey as a shark this season until he got hurt. There’s obviously interest around the league if hockey insiders are reporting on it.
May 12, 2022 at 1:43 p.m.
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An additional note is that it is also possible to remove the Labanc/White swap from the Karlsson trade. The Senators could buyout White for 875k. This would free up about 3 million in both cap space and real dollars after replacing the roster spot with a player on a 1M or less type contract.

With that said, I don't think the Senators first choice would be to put 875k on the books for 6 years, even if it does free up significant money right now. But if you're looking at some of these contract predictions and thinking one or two might be more expensive than predicted, buying out White would be the Senators point of flexibility.

Another note about Colin White, Montreal was apparently interested in him at the deadline. So there would be a possibility for San Jose to flip him to Montreal (wow, sounds familiar). I assume Montreal wanted money retained, or wanted to swap White for one of their own players with term (Hoffman, Armia, etc). San Jose could also straight up buyout White, which would be a much better buyout than Labanc. White's buyout will cost 3.75M spread over 6 years while Labanc's buyout will cost 5.5M spread over 4 years. So not only is the buyout about 2 million cheaper in overall cap, but it also is spread over a longer period so the cap hit is lower on average.
May 13, 2022 at 3:24 p.m.
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I would not do any of this

Remove Brown and price would be more fair for Fiala

Karlsson and Labanc are owed a LOT of money

Giving up their 2023 1st round pick and Brannstrom for 2 cap dumps is not great

Buy out Colin White, Murray might just end up on LTIR and bury Zaitsev in the AHL instead.
May 14, 2022 at 10:55 a.m.
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Quoting: Xspyrit
I would not do any of this

Remove Brown and price would be more fair for Fiala

Karlsson and Labanc are owed a LOT of money

Giving up their 2023 1st round pick and Brannstrom for 2 cap dumps is not great

Buy out Colin White, Murray might just end up on LTIR and bury Zaitsev in the AHL instead.


-The Senators are a budget team next year, and there is pressure to make the playoffs and show their upper management/ownership and core of star players (Tkachuk, Chabot, etc) that they can take a step forward.

-The premise of the trade is free up money now to fill key roles on the roster, pay for it later in 24-25. The Sens are in win now mode. Think the Phaneuf trade a few years ago.

-You have to take the human element into account. The trade proposal isn't "Let's do the smartest most patient moves", it is Dorion needs to win now to save his job and please his stakeholders (ownership, Tkachuk, Chabot, etc). Let's find a way to add to the team while respecting a budget despite the bad contracts that have piled up. That's what the trade is.

-If Murray goes on LTIR, and is insured 80 percent, trading him becomes moot. This trade assumes that isn't guaranteed to happen. If he is on LTIRetirement and is insured, Arizona would likely take him for a 2nd round pick as they have done with other insured LTIR/low salary contracts. That would be the path of least resistance. The Karlsson trade assumes insured LTIRetirement won't happen.

-The Colin White component is there assuming Dorion doesn't get the go ahead to buy White out. As stated in the post obvious, the trade can still happen without the White/Labanc swap. Labanc's contract is 1 year shorter than White's contract, which helps offset some of the longer term Karlsson money.

-Burying Zaitsev does nothing as a solution, since the Senators still have to pay him.

-You are misunderstanding the trade, the Senators aren't trading for cap dumps. They give up Brannstrom (who at best might be worth a 3rd round pick), and highly protected draft picks in order to free up over 10 million dollars this upcoming season. That is the entire premise of the trade. San Jose does it, because it gets them out of the Karlsson money 3 years earlier, Dorion does it because it frees up money to improve their roster now. They aren't trading for Karlsson, they are trading for salary reduction that they can use on Giroux/Fiala/internal raises. If Karlsson contributes, that is the cherry on top.

-Sam Reinhart got Levi (one of the top NHL prospects, despite being a 7th round pick) and a 1st round pick. If you just go by public lists, some credible people like Craig Button rank Levi as a top 30 or so prospect in the league. Buffalo also may have a higher than normal evaluation on him. I think it is fair to say Sam Reinhart got the equivalent of a mid first and a late first. 7th+late 2nd+Brown is worth more than that, but not by that much. Brown as an asset is hugely overrated by Senators fans around here. Some people seem to suggest he will get a 1st round pick at the deadline, when Giroux was the only forward rental to get one (without conditions) at the most recent deadline. That is how out of line some evaluations of Brown's value are. Brown is worth a mid/late 2nd and a small plus at the deadline (B or C prospect, MAYBE a 3rd). The Senators are unlikely to pay him big money through his 30s to stay. The Wild also may require a short term player going the other way to help offset some of the depth they are losing this off season.
 
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