Trading for Keller isn’t realistic

Too many of you Sens fans are delusional on this website

You are so correct on this. I haven't read anything beyond that sentence yet, so I hope you aren't either, but I atleast agree with this first sentence, lol

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Thoughts on the team/trade bud?

how so? ARI is starting a massive rebuild. The 7th OA, 2nd rounder and 2 mid to high end prospects should do it

It’s already started. Keller is signed long term, in line to be next captain of the team, and you need good players to show the next draft picks coming in how to play. Keller, schmaltz, crouse, none of them are going anywhere. 7th OA you might get Kemell or savoie, who you hope turn into what Keller already is. Take your package and send it to Minnesota, fiala is actually available

So what’s involved if a team takes Matt Murray off your hands?

2-2.5 mill retention for a 7th or throw in a 2nd at full price

Literally nothing. Not saying this is either of you two but I’ve seen a scary amount of sens fans try and say players like Murray, zaitsev, white and del zotto have some sort of value. They literally have such little value that we would have to attach something like a 2nd rounder with them to get their contract off our hands. Maybe not DZ cuz only 1 year left and white may have the slightest bit of value but neither will fetch anything worthwhile. That’s why I bought white out and buried DZ in the minors. A team with a ton of cap space like ARI could/would take on Murray, but like I said we’d have to give them significant value for them to do so. Think of PHI and ARI last year, PHI sent a 2nd with Ghost simply to get rid of him. We would have to do the same and trades like that don’t usually work for the team in cap trouble. Think PHI with Ghost and TOR with Marleau a few years back.

I see where ur coming from but I think ur severely underestimating how long a legitimate rebuild takes. Ur not the NY rangers here… neither is Ottawa by any means but look at how long the rebuild has taken already? 5 years now without playoffs and next season is far from a guarantee that they’ll even be competitive. Do you really want a 29 year old Keller when ARI is finally ready to be competitive again? I think they’d be better off speeding up their rebuild by getting the 7th OA with some valuable assets but that’s just my opinion. Also, yes fiala is likely available, but why would MIN want a bunch of future assets when they’re currently a very competitive team, don’t think a deal works out with Ottawa with 7th OA as the main piece which is Ottawas biggest trade chip at the moment.

Just some random thoughts

I think the Norris contract is high, not that he isn't worth a lot, just that if it gets into that range, they go for a bridge deal instead

I think they can lowball Joseph and Formenton, and they each sign shorter deals. One season of okay production isn't enough to get that much of a raise, They'll want to see it for a larger sample size

I don't think White gets bought out. They can only buyout one player in each buyout period, and they want MDZ gone

The trade is too complex, value wise, so I'm not ofering an opinion on it

The UFA are fine, but I doubt they go after a defenceman unless it's a top3 D, the team has enough 4/5 D

They won't take White and a 3rd for Fiala, but what if we add Erik Brannstrom and Minnesota adds their 2023 first unprotected? That seems closer to me, if not a bit too much in Minnesota's favor. I was thinking the Senators throw in Connor Brown, but he would get at least two 1sts at the deadline, so we should keep him and flip him then,.

To comment on your actual proposals and not just make bad jokes.

-Sens will need to dump money somewhere if they give out those internal raises, and acquire Keller who makes 7.5 million dollars next season. Maybe Arizona takes Colin White, who would get top 6 minutes on their team. Zaitsev is another option.

-Value wise, the Keller trade looks close enough to what I'd expect. It's too many pieces, but it's not all that unrealistic. I also don't think there is any need for a conditional pick, Sens know what they are getting with Keller. 7th+2nd round pick or 2nd round tier prospect+Zaitsev makes sense to me. Arizona might actually value Zaitsev since he has shown he can eat up top minutes on a rebuilding team that gets hammered night in and night out, and they have to reach the floor anyways. Whether Zaitsev is bad at it is irrelevant for them. It might even be a plus.

-While I might not 100 percent agree on each exact extension number, we're talking about minimal differences that don't matter much. Like maybe I think you're a few 100k off on one player or another. The only one that stands out as unrealistic is the Jarnkrok signing. While he has been bad in Calgary, he has a long resume as a top 9 forward. He is getting 3-5 years at 3M+ from someone as a UFA. The Senators cannot realistically afford that kind of luxury on their third line, and if they could, they'd re-sign Brown. Jarnkrok is also unlikely to sign in Ottawa for anything short of an overpayment, not that he is a huge star, but the Senators are one of the least desirable destinations in the league.

-The White buyout would be the smart move, but I am skeptical about whether Dorion will do it. He has to answer to a new upper management group, and he has so many bad contracts on the books already. He can only say he screwed up so many times, and putting nearly a million on the books for six seasons might be a tough sell, even if it frees up a lot of money in the short term. If a buyout was an easy option, I don't think he would have been so deep in trade talks with Montreal at the deadline. I say that assuming Montreal was going to send the Senators back another long contract to offset White like Armia or Hoffman. We made a hockey trade because this guy totally wasn't a bad contract, just not a fit here, is a much easier sell than "So remember how I told you about those bad contracts to Murray, Zaitsev, and Del Zotto that we need to move, well don't leave yet....WE GOT ONE MORE TO DEAL WITH".

-The Norris contract is about what I'd expect if the Senators go long term. Somewhere around the 8x8 mark, or a slightly lower AAV on 6 or 7 years. With that said, I don't think the Senators go long term on Norris, because they don't have the flexibility to take that risk, and they think they are buying high on unsustainable goal scoring. I think they only go long term if Norris gives them a great deal. Given that Norris did not want to sign earlier this season, and wanted to risk playing out the season to maximize his value, he isn't giving the Senators a discount. Senators wont' go to 7.5-8.0 million, and Norris isn't giving them a discount. I'd expect either a 3 or a 5 year deal in the 6 million or less range. A 3 year deal will put Norris in a position to cash in because escrow will be paid back and the cap will go up again. While it will buy the Senators time to work around the sale of the team, and hopefully bring in owners who can spend to the cap to retain Norris on his third contract. I think they offer Stutzle the Jack Hughes contract this summer, because anybody with a working pair of eyes can see he is going to explode this season. I don't think they can make Stutzle and Norris both at 8 or so million work in the short term, which is why Norris will be bridged.

Yes, I do want 29 yo Keller. You need players at different stages of their careers and contract statuses to build an overall winner. They can trade Keller 3 years from now for the exact same package you’re offering here. Trading Keller is a terrible idea

Colin White may have the slightest bit of value but I doubt any team is serious enough to trade for him. I bought him out because it only costs 875k against the cap which is super cheap considering his current cap hit. We could dump Zaitsev somewhere but would have to add a decent pick with it. Murray will be off the books too in another 2 seasons so that frees up 6.25. I see what your saying with zaitsev in ARI but I still think including him means that OTT has to add another good draft pick. Now that you say it about Jarnkrok I have to agree, he'll get an overpaid UFA deal for the limited offence he brings. Was just trying to bring in a solid bottom 6 guy because I’m not completely sold on having both parker Kelly and mark kastelic in the lineup at the same time. I think they’ll buy out white, he has no spot in the lineup and his cap bud is ridiculous. They accomplished what was really important which was getting white to simply sign the contract as the time around when he signed was peak Ottawa dumpster fire time and he was the first of the young guys to be up for an extension. Him signing helped chabot and all the other lads stay when it came to their extension. I think they’ll go long term with norris because he’s a huge part of the young crew. 35 goals and Brady’s best buddy. A bridge deal would not be the worst thing though as it gives time to see if he’ll ever turn into a true #1C. Definitely sign stutzle long term this summer, he’s going to turn into an absolute star next season. I’m willing to bet he’ll score at a PPG pace.

I know the White buyout numbers very well, as I've posted on this numerous times now. White might get bought out, but if he is, the bloggers will roast Dorion with their 20/20 hindsight analysis. People keep calling it a no brainer without understanding both sides to the argument. I think it might be too complex for most people, so they just quote the 1/3 payout cost without realizing that the $10.5MM they save is pretty close to what it would cost to replace White, and that replacement player would be older with zero growth potential, and might not be a locker room glue guy like White. The team also loses an asset, 25 year old White, and would need to spend assets to replace White, or overpay in the UFA market. Anyone who say's the replacement is already in house probably doesn't understrand that Joseph would be that inhouse replacement. So the team loses Paul and White, and gets Joseph and a 4th, which presents a different issue, people using the White contract to say "good" to that swap, when the assets are already removed by the buyout, so it becomes a double buyout in their thought process without them even realizing it.

It's complex

With so many middle6 forwards, and pieces that can be moved into different spots, people focus on Pinto being White's replacement, when that has already occured, and White was being moved to the wing already, so it's a winger who replaces White. Now this goes against other points already made, which is both true and not true. It's fluid and complex. Not everything is black and white, but when you ask about White's buyout, it's a black and white response, it's a no brainer because it's at 1/3 cost.

I haven't even touched on White being Chabot's best friend, being born on the same day and being drafted together, both in the 1st round of 2015., and how well White is regarded by everyone. He helps keep the locker room loose.

They brought in Joseph to possibly ease the loss of White, but White's contract isn't as bad as some make it out to be, and buying out White is a locker room miss they don't need to make. It's better to trade White than to buy him out.


Formenton, 13 even strength goals in 79 games. He's a 3rd line winger who excels on the PK with 5 SHG. Yes he has potential, but he needs to show it more than once. He gets a raise, but not a huge raise. He'll be given a qualifying offer, and maybe sign a 1 year deal.

Norris is not Svechnikov or Tkachuk, he doesn't bring those intangables. I'd suggest Suzuki, but that contract is high. I think it's a bridge deal like what Elias Pettersson received, but lower. They're not sure what they have, so they may be cautious if they can't get a long term contract for a good dollar amount.