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What price would you rather pay to move up in the draft

Created by: sensonfire
Team: 2021-22 Ottawa Senators
Initial Creation Date: May 13, 2022
Published: May 13, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
1. The one for 6th overall


2. The one for 5th overall


3. The one for 4th overall


4. The one for 3rd overall


5. The one for 2nd overall


6. The one for Shane Wright
Trades
1.
OTT
  1. 2022 1st round pick (MTL)
MTL
    7th overall + Jake Sanderson
    2.
    OTT
    1. 2022 1st round pick (NJD)
    NJD
      7th overall and New Jersey's choice of any one of our prospects except for Jake Sanderson.
      3.
      OTT
      1. 2022 1st round pick (ARI)
      ARI
        7th overall and Ottawa's choice of one of our former first round picks.
        4.
        OTT
        1. 2022 1st round pick (SEA)
        SEA
          7th overall + Both of our seconds
          5.
          OTT
          1. 2022 1st round pick (PHI)
          PHI
            7th overall + Ottawa's 2nd
            6.
            OTT
            1. 2022 1st round pick (CHI)
            CBJ
              7th overall + Tampa's 2nd
              Buyouts
              Retained Salary Transactions
              DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
              2022
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the MTL
              Logo of the NJD
              Logo of the ARI
              Logo of the SEA
              Logo of the PHI
              Logo of the CHI
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the TBL
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the BOS
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the BOS
              Logo of the WPG
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the NYI
              2023
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the NSH
              2024
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the TBL
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the OTT
              Logo of the OTT
              ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
              24$81,500,000$67,802,257$0$4,507,500$13,697,743
              Left WingCentreRight Wing
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $8,330,674$8,330,674
              LW
              UFA - 7
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
              C
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $4,975,000$4,975,000
              RW, LW
              UFA - 6
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $737,500$737,500
              LW, RW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
              C
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $3,600,000$3,600,000
              RW, LW
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $747,500$747,500 (Performance Bonus$107,500$108K)
              LW
              RFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$600,000$600K)
              C
              RFA - 2
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $4,750,000$4,750,000
              C, RW
              UFA - 4
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $1,500,000$1,500,000
              RW, LW
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $997,500$997,500
              C, RW
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $1,100,000$1,100,000
              C
              UFA - 1
              Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $8,000,000$8,000,000
              LD
              UFA - 7
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $4,500,000$4,500,000
              RD
              M-NTC
              UFA - 3
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $900,000$900,000
              G
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$450,000$450K)
              LD/RD, LW
              RFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $2,500,000$2,500,000
              RD
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $4,687,500$4,687,500
              G
              M-NTC
              UFA - 3
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $1,700,000$1,700,000
              LD
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $3,000,000$3,000,000
              RD
              M-NTC
              UFA - 2
              ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $3,500,000$3,500,000
              C
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $2,000,000$2,000,000
              LD
              UFA - 2
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $1,200,000$1,200,000
              LD/RD
              UFA - 1
              Logo of the Ottawa Senators
              $900,000$900,000
              LW, RW
              UFA - 1

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              What price would you rather pay to move up in the draft
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              May 13, 2022 at 7:30 p.m.
              #1
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              I would honestly do that deal as the Devils. Sanderson is a stud D. Someone good will still be there at the 7th spot and I already have a sure thing.
              HeadHighSauce and sensonfire liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 7:30 p.m.
              #2
              Dougie HIMilton
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              Quoting: NJDevils1317
              I would honestly do that deal as the Devils. Sanderson is a stud D. Someone good will still be there at the 7th spot and I already have a sure thing.


              I would as well, and I'm in love with Logan Cooley at this point.
              sensonfire and csick liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 7:37 p.m.
              #3
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              All of these prices are extremely high. I wouldn’t even want Cooley for Sanderson 1 for 1 let alone with Ottawa throwing 7th overall in… or even Greig?? Way too high on all of these.
              sensonfire, csick and Cowling liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 7:39 p.m.
              #4
              BigMeech
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              MTL decline
              May 13, 2022 at 7:42 p.m.
              #5
              Thread Starter
              sensonfire
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              Quoting: Canucks123
              MTL decline


              Good for them
              HeadHighSauce, Canucks123, csick and 2 others liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 7:43 p.m.
              #6
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              I mean I get it’s only moving back two spots…but Tyler Boucher? Meh
              Canucks123 liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 7:43 p.m.
              #7
              Thread Starter
              sensonfire
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              Quoting: TheBoyDuddus
              All of these prices are extremely high. I wouldn’t even want Cooley for Sanderson 1 for 1 let alone with Ottawa throwing 7th overall in… or even Greig?? Way too high on all of these.


              What is a Top 5 pick worth exactly in your opinion?
              May 13, 2022 at 7:44 p.m.
              #8
              Thread Starter
              sensonfire
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              Quoting: Clarky11
              I mean I get it’s only moving back two spots…but Tyler Boucher? Meh


              kk
              May 13, 2022 at 8:02 p.m.
              #9
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              If that’s the trade for 2OA I think Fitz needs to do it.
              sensonfire and csick liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 8:18 p.m.
              #10
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              Yes from Devils.
              sensonfire and csick liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 8:46 p.m.
              #11
              frosty cold
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              First of all I must say this makes for interestimg conversation.
              The only trade I would be somewhat interested in is number 2 assuming Slavkofsky is still on the board.
              BTW - I think you are greatly undervaluing Sanderson.
              csick and sensonfire liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 8:46 p.m.
              #12
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              These are all insane what are you talking about lmao?

              There's decades of data to suggest that trading up in the draft is a losing proposition to begin with, and you're talking about moving our best prospects and potential shot at a wildly better player in Connor Bedard. This is just horrific for Ottawa
              csick, athrin and Cowling liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 9:01 p.m.
              #13
              KFTW
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              I’d pay the Tampa 2nd to move up from 7 to 5 and take Jiricek
              sensonfire and athrin liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 9:02 p.m.
              #14
              KFTW
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              Quoting: Claesson4Norris
              These are all insane what are you talking about lmao?

              There's decades of data to suggest that trading up in the draft is a losing proposition to begin with, and you're talking about moving our best prospects and potential shot at a wildly better player in Connor Bedard. This is just horrific for Ottawa


              2 2nds to move up 1 spot Lmao, when the prospects are neck and neck.
              athrin liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 9:13 p.m.
              #15
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              Quoting: csick
              2 2nds to move up 1 spot Lmao, when the prospects are neck and neck.


              The Columbus deal is essentially just p*ssing two 2nds into the wind and it's still the best value proposition for Ottawa. 2nd overall being essentially Greig, Sanderson and say Lekkerimaki for a Slafkovsky which is just comical. I'm stunned that this is made by a Sens fan, and I'm pretty sure this isn't a troll post either lol.

              You offer 7th overall pick, Sanderson and an unprotected 1st next year you can get basically any forward in the league, barring a handful of true untouchables. Or you could have Shane Wright lmao.
              csick, wardbell92 and Cowling liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 9:17 p.m.
              #16
              KFTW
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              Quoting: Claesson4Norris
              The Columbus deal is essentially just p*ssing two 2nds into the wind and it's still the best value proposition for Ottawa. 2nd overall being essentially Greig, Sanderson and say Lekkerimaki for a Slafkovsky which is just comical. I'm stunned that this is made by a Sens fan, and I'm pretty sure this isn't a troll post either lol.

              You offer 7th overall pick, Sanderson and an unprotected 1st next year you can get basically any forward in the league, barring a handful of true untouchables. Or you could have Shane Wright lmao.


              Yeah i wouldn’t offer Jake for Shane cuz both are prospects and it doesn’t make sense to do a risky trade like that. It’s also not like there’s a clear star at 2nd overall. Cooley , Slaf could both go at 4 if someone likes Nemec more
              Cowling liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 9:31 p.m.
              #17
              Thread Starter
              sensonfire
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              Quoting: csick
              2 2nds to move up 1 spot Lmao, when the prospects are neck and neck.


              Quoting: Claesson4Norris
              The Columbus deal is essentially just p*ssing two 2nds into the wind and it's still the best value proposition for Ottawa. 2nd overall being essentially Greig, Sanderson and say Lekkerimaki for a Slafkovsky which is just comical. I'm stunned that this is made by a Sens fan, and I'm pretty sure this isn't a troll post either lol.

              You offer 7th overall pick, Sanderson and an unprotected 1st next year you can get basically any forward in the league, barring a handful of true untouchables. Or you could have Shane Wright lmao.


              I never really understood what the value of a Top 10 pick is.

              Let alone one in the Top 5.

              Especially since the value varies from one draft to the next.



              Maybe someone who would know more than me could explain in a way that is somewhat helpful.

              Like yourself.

              And I wouldn't make a post like this one or the last one ever again.



              What do you say?
              Claesson4Norris liked this.
              May 13, 2022 at 10:25 p.m.
              #18
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              Quoting: sensonfire
              I never really understood what the value of a Top 10 pick is.

              Let alone one in the Top 5.

              Especially since the value varies from one draft to the next.



              Maybe someone who would know more than me could explain in a way that is somewhat helpful.

              Like yourself.

              And I wouldn't make a post like this one or the last one ever again.



              What do you say?


              Trading up in the draft is just an inherently losing proposition. From a value perspective, it's basically always better to be the team moving back vs moving up because the real world cost is always more than the projected increase in pick value. There have been a lot of interesting articles written by sports blogs on the subject going back as far as like 2011. Think the Leafs nation blog have a couple.

              As far as the specific pieces in question, I think you're really undestimating the value of a Top drafted and semi developed prospect vs the mystery box. For example Jake Sanderson, who was arguably the best player not in the NHL this year is probably as valuable or more valuable than a 1st overall pick. He's a true top prospect who is about to jump into a significant role in the NHL next year. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

              To put it in terms of players, the gap between a Cooley and say Lekkerimaki is nowhere near the difference of having Greig and Sanderson.

              Also you should make whatever posts you want haha. I disagree with the values on these deals, but I wasn't intending to discourage you from posting or anything lol
              sensonfire liked this.
              May 14, 2022 at 5:01 a.m.
              #19
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              cbj accepts if both Jiricek and Nemec are gone at 6
              sensonfire liked this.
              May 14, 2022 at 12:57 p.m.
              #20
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              Quoting: sensonfire
              What is a Top 5 pick worth exactly in your opinion?


              You’re right that a top 5 pick is valuable, I just think you undervalued Ottawa’s pick a bit. Moving up 2 spots to 5th shouldn’t cost the farm in a draft class where there is no distinct drop off in the quality of prospects there. If you were looking to acquire a pick that high without giving something like 7th up then it’s extremely expensive, yes.

              Each class will have different groupings of players. Ottawa only paid a 3rd to move up from 12th to 11th in 2016. But in a year like 2021 where there was a distinct top 9, moving up from 10 to 9 would have been very expensive for Dorion. When you look at 2020, the top grouping ended at 10 so moving up from 10 to 9 that year wouldn’t have been nearly as costly. It’s all very fluid year to year.

              So keep in mind that this draft class isn’t the strongest, even someone like Greig (taken low in a strong 2020 class) who’s now two years down the road in development may end up being a better player than someone like Geekie who looks like a top 10 pick. He was ranked as the 18th best propect outside the NHL by Button recently. Does Geekie come close to that ranking? Unlikely. Does he come close to that ranking in his D+2 season? Maybe but we’d have to wait to find out and as of right now Greig is better and much closer to helping at the NHL level. I wouldn’t want to swap Greig for a Geekie 1 for 1. Sanderson was ranked as the best propect in the world outside of the NHL. I wouldn’t swap him 1 for 1 for any pick in this draft.

              Sorry for the long winded answer. TLDR Moving up from 7th is still very valuable in this draft and is much closer in value to 6th, 5th abd 4th than 4th is to 3rd, 2nd and 1st. Sanderson should be untouchable and trading Greig to move up would be counterproductive.
              sensonfire liked this.
               
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