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2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN

May 14, 2022 at 10:30 p.m.
#351
What in tarnation
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Quoting: Canesfan21_
So Boston now has Bergeron possibly retiring, Marchand is 34, but their top pair is signed for 8 years (horrible trade) and they are paying a backup goalie 5 mill a year for the next 3 years. And they still have no depth scoring.


Struggle time awaits and I'm so happy about it
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May 14, 2022 at 10:31 p.m.
#352
Rutta 4ever
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Rough day for Canadian hockey facing the Lightning organization.

Syracuse Crunch forced a Game 5 (best-of-5 series) against the Laval Rocket in Laval this afternoon via 3-0 shutout.
And what we just saw what happened in Toronto.

Crazy enough a big injury to both Lightning org teams. Crunch lost their goaltender in the 1st and Lightning lost Point.
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May 14, 2022 at 10:31 p.m.
#353
What in tarnation
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
Don't worry, Montreal will scoop it up next year


Not with that roster.
May 14, 2022 at 10:33 p.m.
#354
More Finns More Wins
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
Don't worry, Buffalo will scoop it up next year


fixed it for you testing
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May 14, 2022 at 10:33 p.m.
#355
What in tarnation
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I'm just wondering - the Leafs have lost Game 7 now five times in a row.

Have they also lost Game 6 this many times consecutively as well?
May 14, 2022 at 10:34 p.m.
#356
WentWughes
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Quoting: justaBoss
Not with that roster.


Let's just see what Hughes does, If we can figure out our defense, we have a real shot. Lots of question marks that will be solved by the start of the season. Montreal will be #4 in the division next year behind Toronto, Tampa, and Florida.
May 14, 2022 at 10:34 p.m.
#357
Hakuna Matata
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Quoting: Db1899
EDM would have to add but if the leafs are trading Nylander (they shouldn't) then that's the type of forward they should go after.


I feel Nylander is either gonna end up in LA or Nashville

LA has been looking for someone like him and Nashville wants to make Forsberg happy and Nylander is a friend of his
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May 14, 2022 at 10:34 p.m.
#358
Speak of the Devil
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Quoting: Saskleaf
Can the entire leafs team and management please all be traded and fired. Thank you. Good bye.


Matthews to the Devils
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May 14, 2022 at 10:34 p.m.
#359
What in tarnation
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Quoting: Hurricanes_WPG
fixed it for you


I'd avoid predicting Buffalo anywhere near the top4 of the division until they actually make it. They're cursed.

I'm saying Ottawa takes the 4th place but it won't be enough because there'll be 5 teams making it in from Metropolitan.
May 14, 2022 at 10:35 p.m.
#360
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Quoting: justaBoss
Well I'm not known as a tall guy lol.


All about context. You're a giant of these forums :-P
May 14, 2022 at 10:36 p.m.
#361
What in tarnation
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
Let's just see what Hughes does, If we can figure out our defense, we have a real shot. Lots of question marks that will be solved by the start of the season. Montreal will be #4 in the division next year behind Toronto, Tampa, and Florida.


I seriously doubt that, but we will see.

Imo MTL is the biggest struggle of the division and it's not even that close. They're basically where OTT was in 2017, and trending downwards fast.
May 14, 2022 at 10:36 p.m.
#362
What in tarnation
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Quoting: Rangsey
All about context. You're a giant of these forums :-P


Yeah absolutely mega.
May 14, 2022 at 10:37 p.m.
#363
What in tarnation
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Kulak had a child last night?

Congrats to him.
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May 14, 2022 at 10:38 p.m.
#364
I make typos
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Quoting: Db1899
Nylander for Puljujarvi


no, can't afford that and if we trading JP we gotta trade him for a Dmen
May 14, 2022 at 10:40 p.m.
#365
WentWughes
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Quoting: justaBoss
I seriously doubt that, but we will see.

Imo MTL is the biggest struggle of the division and it's not even that close. They're basically where OTT was in 2017, and trending downwards fast.


I don't really agree with you. Our current core is;


Anderson - 28
Dvorak - 26
Suzuki - 22
Romanov - 22
Caufield - 21

Still very young and they will all likely take a growth next year. Add in Shane Wright + Whatever else we get. Like I said, I think it comes down to what happens to the defense. If Hughes does nothing, then we won't be close to the playoffs, but a few moves and we're right there.
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May 14, 2022 at 10:40 p.m.
#366
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Quoting: oilersguy
no, can't afford that and if we trading JP we gotta trade him for a Dmen


the oilers do not need to trade for a defenseman
May 14, 2022 at 10:42 p.m.
#367
mokumboi
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Quoting: justaBoss
I think it's pretty close. Getting to the game 7 five seasons (game 5 in the bubble) in a row is in itself almost impossible. Losing them all is even more impossible.


Sorry, I'm gonna need to see the math on that one.
May 14, 2022 at 10:42 p.m.
#368
Thread Starter
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: Db1899
the oilers do not need to trade for a defenseman


They could use a more stable RHD over Barrie but that's about it. Not the kind of player I'd eagerly flip JP for.
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May 14, 2022 at 10:43 p.m.
#369
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Quick is 4-0, 1.95GAA and .945 sv % in game 7's, absolutely clutch.
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May 14, 2022 at 10:44 p.m.
#370
Bo Horvat enjoyer
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Quoting: Db1899
Drink every time the broadcast talks about Josh Archibald throwing hits.


Thanks now I’m blacked out
May 14, 2022 at 10:45 p.m.
#371
Bo Horvat enjoyer
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Quoting: Devil




AndrewLadd

The Kings vs Oilers game hits different on mute

She’s so bad I wouldn’t be surprised if Ron Hextall had her on mute
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May 14, 2022 at 10:46 p.m.
#372
What in tarnation
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Quoting: KSIxSKULLS
I don't really agree with you. Our current core is;


Anderson - 28
Dvorak - 26
Suzuki - 22
Romanov - 22
Caufield - 21

Still very young and they will all likely take a growth next year. Add in Shane Wright + Whatever else we get. Like I said, I think it comes down to what happens to the defense. If Hughes does nothing, then we won't be close to the playoffs, but a few moves and we're right there.


To me it looks like an overpaid 30-40 point power forward, a glorified Alex Kerfoot with bigger contract they ended up overpaying for, a future 2nd pair D-man and two young future 1st line forwards in a weak team, 2nd line in better team.

I'd buy it if they had a solid prospect pool but they do not. Their most interesting prospects are Kaiden Guhle who they don't have room for due to below average LHD logjam and a random 5th round pick who started to bloom late.

Personally, I'm not convinced. But this debate belongs to the offseason thread.
May 14, 2022 at 10:47 p.m.
#373
EklundCelebriniSmith
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Quoting: Devil
FSw2zj6VIAIWSlG?format=jpg&name=medium

Jesse Pollock LOL


awesome lol
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May 14, 2022 at 10:49 p.m.
#374
I make typos
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Quoting: Db1899
the oilers do not need to trade for a defenseman


??? yes we do, our D is terrible
May 14, 2022 at 10:49 p.m.
#375
Thread Starter
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: mokumboi
Sorry, I'm gonna need to see the math on that one.


The approach I took was to take the base-two logarithm of 27,778: there are two outcomes of an NHL playoff game so if the two teams are evenly matched you could expect any game to be a 50-50. Thus (1/2)^x should equal that 1/27,778 figure of JFresh's, with x being the number of instances the Leafs have been in that situation for either team to clinch.

The result I got was around 14.76. I don't know the specifics of the Leafs' series but I know that x cannot be greater than 20 in this instance as there are only 4 possible games that can clinch a series (I believe the max for this number is actually 16 as I don't recall the Leafs or their opponents being up 3-0 in the series).

This leads me to suspect that JFresh is using odds from his model and that the distribution of who wins the game isn't 50-50.
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