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2021-2022 NHL Playoffs Discussion Thread #3 - SE7EN

May 14, 2022 at 10:50 p.m.
#376
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Imma log off for a while while I collect myself. I had legit hope. I’ll give postseason notes when I’m recovered
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May 14, 2022 at 10:50 p.m.
#377
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Quoting: mokumboi
Sorry, I'm gonna need to see the math on that one.


Not gonna do the whole thing (don't even fully know how honestly), but even just as a simplified version, if you assume that in each of the game 7's the Leafs had a 50% chance of winning, that's a 0.03125% chance of losing all 5 consecutively (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5). Then you consider all the other factors and the chances become even more slim.
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May 14, 2022 at 10:51 p.m.
#378
What in tarnation
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
The approach I took was to take the base-two logarithm of 27,778: there are two outcomes of an NHL playoff game so if the two teams are evenly matched you could expect any game to be a 50-50. Thus (1/2)^x should equal that 1/27,778 figure of JFresh's, with x being the number of instances the Leafs have been in that situation for either team to clinch.

The result I got was around 14.76. I don't know the specifics of the Leafs' series but I know that x cannot be greater than 20 in this instance as there are only 4 possible games that can clinch a series (I believe the max for this number is actually 16 as I don't recall the Leafs or their opponents being up 3-0 in the series).

This leads me to suspect that JFresh is using odds from his model and that the distribution of who wins the game isn't 50-50.


He explained where this is based on in that tweet.



May 14, 2022 at 10:53 p.m.
#379
Farewell
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I love, absolutely love, the handshake tradition.

May 14, 2022 at 10:55 p.m.
#380
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Quoting: PointStamkosVasilevskiy219188
I love, absolutely love, the handshake tradition.



I think I might come to like it if the Leafs could be on the winning end of one.
May 14, 2022 at 10:58 p.m.
#381
What in tarnation
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Quoting: PointStamkosVasilevskiy219188
I love, absolutely love, the handshake tradition.



Whatever happens tomorrow I want someone to take a jab at Zadorov during the handshakes.
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May 14, 2022 at 10:59 p.m.
#382
Thread Starter
Ban Price trades
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Quoting: justaBoss
He explained where this is based on in that tweet.





So then the math would be:

A^z × B^y × C^x × D^w × E^v = 1/27,778, where:

A is the odds from the series in year 1
B is the odds from the series in year 2
C is the odds from the series in year 3
D is the odds from the series in year 4
E is the odds from the series in year 5
z is the number of games that could clinch in year 1
y is the number of games that could clinch in year 2
x is the number of games that could clinch in year 3
w is the number of games that could clinch in year 4
v is the number of games that could clinch in year 5
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May 14, 2022 at 11:01 p.m.
#383
What in tarnation
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
So then the math would be:

A^z × B^y × C^x × D^w × E^v = 1/27,778, where:

A is the odds from the series in year 1
B is the odds from the series in year 2
C is the odds from the series in year 3
D is the odds from the series in year 4
E is the odds from the series in year 5
z is the number of games that could clinch in year 1
y is the number of games that could clinch in year 2
x is the number of games that could clinch in year 3
w is the number of games that could clinch in year 4
v is the number of games that could clinch in year 5


I hate maths.
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May 14, 2022 at 11:03 p.m.
#384
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Quoting: oilersguy
??? yes we do, our D is terrible


Removing Keith and Barrie is addition by subtraction, re-sign Kulak. Broberg should make the team.

Nurse-Bouchard
Kulak- ?
Broberg- Ceci
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May 14, 2022 at 11:03 p.m.
#385
Farewell
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Quoting: LeafsFanForSomeReason
I think I might come to like it if the Leafs could be on the winning end of one.


Seriously though, everybody's going to talk about how the Leafs choked "again". This 21-22 Leafs team did not choke like the Leafs teams of the past decade. They gave everything they had, played well, got terrific production out of their stars, had solid secondary scoring, and the like. The Lightning were just better. They're the two-time defending Stanley Cup champs for a reason. But even though another year yielded the same result, this Leafs team should not look at themselves like the Leafs teams of prior years. They were much, much better. They play like this in future playoffs, it's going to yield fruit.
May 14, 2022 at 11:03 p.m.
#386
Rutta 4ever
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I wonder how many teams were in on Paul at the deadline. Talk of moving him went quiet before we ultimately sent a 4th and Joseph. Dude is built for playoff hockey.
May 14, 2022 at 11:04 p.m.
#387
Farewell
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Quoting: CoopsTroops
I wonder how many teams were in on Paul at the deadline. Talk of moving him went quiet before we ultimately sent a 4th and Joseph. Dude is built for playoff hockey.


I doubt I'm the only one who thought Hagel was the (much) bigger deadline acquisition. But boy, I'm happy to be proven wrong. Paul has just been so clutch.
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May 14, 2022 at 11:05 p.m.
#388
What in tarnation
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Quoting: PointStamkosVasilevskiy219188
Seriously though, everybody's going to talk about how the Leafs choked "again". This 21-22 Leafs team did not choke like the Leafs teams of the past decade. They gave everything they had, played well, got terrific production out of their stars, had solid secondary scoring, and the like. The Lightning were just better. They're the two-time defending Stanley Cup champs for a reason. But even though another year yielded the same result, this Leafs team should not look at themselves like the Leafs teams of prior years. They were much, much better. They play like this in future playoffs, it's going to yield fruit.


Agreed. They play like this against a team like WSH, they'd destroy them in 4 games worse than what Avs did to Preds
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May 14, 2022 at 11:05 p.m.
#389
Go leafs go
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Quoting: Devil
Matthews to the Devils


What’s the full offer?
May 14, 2022 at 11:06 p.m.
#390
Speak of the Devil
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Quoting: Saskleaf
What’s the full offer?


Mason Geertsen
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May 14, 2022 at 11:08 p.m.
#391
I make typos
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Quoting: Db1899
Removing Keith and Barrie is addition by subtraction, re-sign Kulak. Broberg should make the team.

Nurse-Bouchard
Kulak- ?
Broberg- Ceci


yeah we trade JP for ?
May 14, 2022 at 11:08 p.m.
#392
Ex Nucks fan
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Friendly reminder that Jim Benning has more playoff series victories than Kyle Dubas
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May 14, 2022 at 11:09 p.m.
#393
Go leafs go
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Quoting: Devil
Mason Geertsen


Sold!
May 14, 2022 at 11:09 p.m.
#394
EklundCelebriniSmith
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Quoting: Juiceman
Friendly reminder that Jim Benning has more playoff series victories than Kyle Dubas


thats a low blow
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May 14, 2022 at 11:10 p.m.
#395
EklundCelebriniSmith
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May 14, 2022 at 11:10 p.m.
#396
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Quoting: PointStamkosVasilevskiy219188
Seriously though, everybody's going to talk about how the Leafs choked "again". This 21-22 Leafs team did not choke like the Leafs teams of the past decade. They gave everything they had, played well, got terrific production out of their stars, had solid secondary scoring, and the like. The Lightning were just better. They're the two-time defending Stanley Cup champs for a reason. But even though another year yielded the same result, this Leafs team should not look at themselves like the Leafs teams of prior years. They were much, much better. They play like this in future playoffs, it's going to yield fruit.


And that's why I'm so disappointed, but more-so nervous. To me, you can't look at the fact that they didn't get the result they wanted this time around and make major organization changing decisions based off of it. You can't compound this loss with the others - they were a different team; a better team. And they have been getting progressively better since Dubas and Keefe have taken the reins, core intact. I'm legitimately afraid that the powers that be won't see it that way and the team will be worse off because of it.
May 14, 2022 at 11:12 p.m.
#397
What in tarnation
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I still think TOR needs a leading D-man.

Morgan Rielly reminds me too much of prime John Klingberg. A great offensive D-man but he simply shouldn't be your No.1 guy. They need a Heiskanen. A D able to do it all.

Problem is that those are very limited. And given the fact Leafs is still spending almost $34 million on three forwards, it makes adding one more difficult. Even if those three do perform really well.

Guess the big question is do they need them all? And which one they'd remove. Tavares is unmovable. Marner is movable but won't return a top10 D-man.

Matthews will return one, but is it worth it? Probably not.
May 14, 2022 at 11:12 p.m.
#398
GM CRIME DAWG
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Tick-Tock-Tick-Tock-Tick-Tock...
2 YRS 2 AM @ UFA

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!
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May 14, 2022 at 11:13 p.m.
#399
What in tarnation
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Quoting: Juiceman
Friendly reminder that Jim Benning has more playoff series victories than Kyle Dubas


Friendly reminder that Jim Benning is the only GM who traded a top10 pick for Ekman-Larsson.
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May 14, 2022 at 11:14 p.m.
#400
Go leafs go
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Quoting: PointStamkosVasilevskiy219188
Seriously though, everybody's going to talk about how the Leafs choked "again". This 21-22 Leafs team did not choke like the Leafs teams of the past decade. They gave everything they had, played well, got terrific production out of their stars, had solid secondary scoring, and the like. The Lightning were just better. They're the two-time defending Stanley Cup champs for a reason. But even though another year yielded the same result, this Leafs team should not look at themselves like the Leafs teams of prior years. They were much, much better. They play like this in future playoffs, it's going to yield fruit.


You should know by now not to be logical with leafs fans after a playoff loss. Just let us call for their heads for a few more days. Then we can talk.
 
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