Off-Season Blueprint

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Initial Creation Date: May 15, 2022

Published: May 15, 2022

Team: 2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs

Description

Another year, another 1st round exit unfortunately. However this team showed some fight and a different type of play style in the final 3 games that leads to some optimism for the future. I think there's a good possibility that one of the core 4 is moved (likely Nylander), but after seeing how dominant they can be in playoffs it might be the right thing to do and take the hard road and stick with them again. I don't believe Kyle Dubas, Sheldon Keefe, or Brendan Shanahan's job will be on the line - they built a top team and just happened to draw the back-to-back champs in the first round. That being said, I could see some changes like this being made this off-season so I'll try to break it down as best as I can (read trade descriptions for those details)

Step 1: Coaching staff generally stays the same. 4th best team in the regular season, top PP with a top 10 PK unit, and a hard fought 7 game series was pretty well coached. Steve Briere needs to be fired. He did nothing to help the goaltending when the team needed it for 2-3 months and after seeing Andersen decline in every season since he was in Toronto, it seems pretty clear that a new voice is needed. Hire Steve McKichan - he currently runs the FuturePro goalie school and is great at developing goalies. He was a former goalie coach of the Leafs when Belfour was around, but he works better with younger goalies. McKichan has trained Campbell before in his FuturePro school and I think would work well with the acquired Blackwood in this situation to regain his form.

Step 2: Clear cap space as needed. Mrazek and Holl will likely be dealt. I could see Kerfoot hanging around but in this situation more space was needed so he had to be moved. Unfortunately this team will always pay the "Toronto tax" and when it comes to moving guys out they likely get lower return - take the cap space and move on.

Step 3: Draft day - continue to aim for high end skill and look to move back where possible. Rutger McGoarty would be a great pick up in the first round, I believe Toronto will pick around #26 so he should be available. He has a high skill level, can make and finish plays, creates off the perimeter but can still score form the interior areas, and uses his size well around the net to create space. He's coming out of the USNTDP system and is heading off to college so he'll have time to develop and take over as the 2C when Tavares eventually shifts to the wing - would love this pick for Toronto.

Step 4: No big free agents - focus on the RFA's and UFA's from this team.
Mikheyev (Rocco Grimaldi comparison contract)
Sandin (Neal Pionk comparison contract)
Liljegren (Ethan Bear comparison contract)
Campbell (Mrazek comparison contract)

From there, bring in low risk/high reward guys and utilize the AHL team as they have been.

Step 5: Let the young kids play. Part of developing is letting young guys fight through struggles. I think all of Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, and Steeves should make the roster out of camp. Let them learn the league and earn their minutes.

The three team trade for Arizona/Los Angeles/Toronto I could see somewhat breaking down like this:

To Los Angeles:
D - Jakob Chychrun
F - Alex Kerfoot

To Toronto:
D - Matt Roy (30% retained by Arizona)

To Arizona:
Retain 30% of Matt Roy's contract
F - Gabriel Vilardi
D - Helge Grans
F - Lias Andersson
2023 Toronto 1st round pick (top 5 protected)
2023 LA 2nd round pick (becomes 1st if LA reaches the 2023 Western Conference Finals)

It’s a huge price to pay but it’s helped by Toronto’s 1st. There’s going to be almost every team in the league interested so a team is going to overpay to get him.

Tough to read Dubas’ thoughts until the year end press conference is done but I think this is a good direction for the team.

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Liljegren, Timothy	2	$2,150,000
Engvall, Pierre	2	$1,527,550
Rubins, Kristians	1	$787,500
Sandin, Rasmus	3	$2,686,500

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Campbell, Jack	3	$3,800,000
Mikheyev, Ilya	3	$2,400,000
Spezza, Jason	1	$750,000

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Myers, Philippe		1	$815,000

Trades

TOR

2024 6th round pick (CHI)

CHI

Miettinen, Veeti [Reserve List]
Mrázek, Petr
2023 4th round pick (TOR)

Additional Details:

Honestly don't expect much of a return for Mrazek, but don't expect it to cost a lot to move his salary either. Where people are going rant and complain here about "oh it costs more to dump Mrazek's $3.8m contract" - it actually shouldn't because if Toronto can't find a trade partner for him they can buy him out at a cap hit of just over $1m and that's the actual cap hit that they're paying to move.

Hawks are one of the teams that will need a goalie in the off-season and there was interest in him from them at the deadline.

TOR

2022 3rd round pick (WSH)
2022 6th round pick (WSH)

WSH

2022 3rd round pick (WPG)

Additional Details:

*Draft day trade*

Leafs trade pick #78 to Washington for picks #84 and #180

TOR

Blackwood, Mackenzie ($1,400,000 retained)

NJD

Villeneuve, William
Voit, Ty
2023 3rd round pick (TOR)

Additional Details:

I think a smart move for Dubas is to maintain the idea of a tandem goalie situation rather than riding one starter. To me it's pretty clear that Jack Campbell isn't consistent enough and too injury prone to be considered a bonafide starter - aside from the untimely goals he continues to give up. After moving on from Mrazek, a name that was circulated around at the deadline was Mackenzie Blackwood and I think a change of scenery would benefit him and the Devils. The price on him shouldn't be too high as he's been oft-injured frequently and doesn't have the best results over the past few seasons so I've based the price similar to the Vitek Vanecek trade to Washington and the Alex Nedeljkovic trade to Detroit (Vanecek returned a 2nd, Nedeljkovic returned a 3rd and rights to a UFA). I think in a better defensive system like Toronto that he could regain his form and provide them with a long term solution in net.

Voit may not be NHL yet, but he is the type of dynamic winger that New Jersey could use in their system. He had a great season with Sarnia and showed his ability to make his teammates around him better. Because of his value being at an all-time low I do see some retained salary as something that's plausible and I've compensated New Jersey with a pick and a high risk/high reward type of prospect in Villeneuve.

TOR

2023 3rd round pick (NSH)

NSH

Holl, Justin

Additional Details:

Simple cap freeing move type of deal here - Nashville could use a top 6 right hand shot on the back end and Toronto could use the cap space because Holl has been passed on the depth chart by younger guys that need the ice time for further development.

TOR

Chychrun, Jakob

ARI

2023 1st round pick (TOR)

Additional Details:

*Arizona retains 30% of Matt Roy's contract:
$945k cap hit for 2 seasons,
$975k, $1.26m in real cash for 2 season

Arizona also receives whatever agreed upon players/picks from LA as part of 3 team trade

TOR

Roy, Matt ($945,000 retained)

Additional Details:

*This is Arizona's salary retention, not LA's

LAK

Chychrun, Jakob
Kerfoot, Alexander

Additional Details:

The big splash of the season comes in the way of a 3 team trade that sends Matt Roy to Toronto, and Jakob Chychrun to LA. The Kings have been highly linked to Chychrun since his name became available in trade talks and they have some good young prospects and players to get a deal done. It also seems like they could use some offence up front after their playoff series, so they add Alex Kerfoot as well in the deal. Toronto adds a shutdown right handed shot defenceman to play alongside Morgan Rielly for the foreseeable future, and solidifies their entire top 6 defence core with this move.

DRAFT YEAR	ROUND 1	ROUND 2	ROUND 3	ROUND 4	ROUND 5	ROUND 6	ROUND 7
2022
2023
2024

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$82,500,000	$82,320,500	$212,500	$0	$179,500

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Bunting, Michael $950,000 LW UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $11,640,250 C UFA - 2	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000 RW UFA - 3
Mikheyev, Ilya $2,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Tavares, John $11,000,000 C NMC UFA - 3	Nylander, William $6,962,366 RW, LW UFA - 2
Robertson, Nicholas $796,667 LW RFA - 2	Kämpf, David $1,500,000 C UFA - 1	Engvall, Pierre $1,527,550 RW, LW UFA - 1
Clifford, Kyle $762,500 LW UFA - 2	Steeves, Alex $834,167 LW, RW RFA - 2	Spezza, Jason $750,000 C, RW UFA

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $7,500,000 LD NMC UFA - 8	Roy, Matt $2,205,000 RD UFA - 2	Campbell, Jack $3,800,000 G UFA - 5
Sandin, Rasmus $2,686,500 LD RFA - 2	Brodie, TJ $5,000,000 LD/RD NTC UFA - 2	Blackwood, Mackenzie $1,400,000 G RFA - 1
Muzzin, Jake $5,625,000 LD NTC UFA - 2	Liljegren, Timothy $2,150,000 RD RFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Simmonds, Wayne $900,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1
Myers, Philippe $815,000

May 15, 2022 at 2:44 p.m.

Leafsfan16

Joined: Jun. 2020

Posts: 1,082

Likes: 293

I like the Blackwood idea I think that is smart and Dubas should consider it. Also idk how Devils fans will feel about that.

TrueCanuck liked this.

May 15, 2022 at 2:44 p.m.

mokumboi

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 17,700

Likes: 7,129

Just FYI: nobody is paying a 3rd for Holl to be a 3RD, and certainly not a team that is into a bit of a rebuild.

May 15, 2022 at 2:45 p.m.

HappyKampfers

Joined: Feb. 2021

Posts: 1,413

Likes: 493

1st and kerfoot for Roy?

May 15, 2022 at 2:45 p.m.

Tbrew

Joined: Apr. 2022

Posts: 1,851

Likes: 757

The Devils have goaltending issues as it is. I’m not sure about trading their only NHL goaltender for a prospect and pick, plus retaining salary. Makes more sense to just keep Blackwood or find a better trade

rollie1967 liked this.

May 15, 2022 at 2:53 p.m.

TrueCanuck

Thread Starter

Roster Architect

Joined: Mar. 2021

Posts: 2,643

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Quoting: Leafsfan16

I like the Blackwood idea I think that is smart and Dubas should consider it. Also idk how Devils fans will feel about that.

Quoting: Tbrew

That one was tough to judge. But with the reported disagreements between Blackwood and the team (Blackwood hired a new agent apparently to help find a new start somewhere), I think he’s available. I’d think that New Jersey would find a goalie elsewhere anyways, but it seems like his time in New Jersey may be short

May 15, 2022 at 2:54 p.m.

rollie1967

Joined: May 2016

Posts: 501

Likes: 192

Blackwood is NJs starter....and you expect them to trade him for next to nothing...and retain salary? not even close.
Mikheyev will command more than that as a UFA, and even Campbell could get more.
Ideally the Leafs move one of their pricey forwards and spend a big chunk of it on a goalie- like Husso, but theyre going to have to pay someone to take on Mrzazeks deal- and they dont have that many prospects to do that.

May 15, 2022 at 2:55 p.m.

TrueCanuck

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Joined: Mar. 2021

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Likes: 908

Edited May 15, 2022 at 3:15 p.m.

Quoting: mokumboi

Just FYI: nobody is paying a 3rd for Holl to be a 3RD, and certainly not a team that is into a bit of a rebuild.

Travis Hamonic got moved for a 3rd round pick just at the deadline to a non contending team. Hamonic has a higher salary and is also a 3rd pairing right handed shooting defenceman, so I don’t think a 3rd for Holl is out of the question at all.

May 15, 2022 at 3:02 p.m.

TrueCanuck

Thread Starter

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Joined: Mar. 2021

Posts: 2,643

Likes: 908

Quoting: rollie1967

New Jersey and Blackwood have reportedly had disagreements and he was made available at the deadline so he’s certainly available at least - this doesn’t stop them from getting another guy too. They can make trades as well. With his injury history and poor play for the last 2 seasons it’s also not out of the question to have salary retained because of it - it’s only for 1 season so it’s not a long term committed retaining.

Mikheyev as I said was signed to a deal comparable to Rocco Grimaldi when he signed. Both were around the same amount of games played, points, and age - Grimaldi signed for $2m so what makes Mikheyev worth so much more? Because he’s a Leaf and people like to overrate him so Toronto can’t sign him? $2.4m is more than fair.

Campbell is a tandem goalie and tandem goalies don’t get paid $4m +.. look at what Mrazek got. Again Campbell was highly inconsistent and not that great in playoffs. He has a injury history and is over 30. Those types of goalies don’t command a lot on the open market. Husso was in the same type of area as Campbell and you think Campbell should get more despite being older? Doesn’t seem right.

Mrazek - as stated in the description - won’t take that much to move. If teams don’t want him, his cap hit on a buyout is just over $1m so it’s not a high cap hit to absorb. Look at what Toronto did to move Nick Ritchie, didn’t cost a lot and got a good return. Mrazek will be in a similar boat.

May 15, 2022 at 3:15 p.m.

Angusc

Joined: May 2022

Posts: 442

Likes: 162

The Leafs could try and get Anthony Stolarz from Anaheim. He did play well for them and he is cheaper. Or another option would be Jake Allen from the habs since he also works well in a tandem. Price would come back and Primeau will take over as backup anyway imo.

May 15, 2022 at 3:17 p.m.

#10

TrueCanuck

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Quoting: Angusc

Jake Allen could be a possibility, I think the fact that it’s a trade with a divisional rival would make the price far too high though. Stolarz doesn’t seem like an option to me. Personally I don’t see him as much and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s out of the league in 2 years and I watched him all throughout his junior career - I just don’t think he has the upside to be a future starter like Blackwood does

May 15, 2022 at 3:19 p.m.

#11

Tintin

dont Devil my graph

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 3,521

Likes: 2,964

Quoting: Leafsfan16

Also idk how Devils fans will feel about that.

Seriously hope Devils aren't trading Blackwood. I'm a big believer in him and back him to develop into a true NHL starter sooner rather than later.
I think his underwhelming results as of late are more due to too much responsibility being forced upon him (was supposed to share the net with Crawford last year and Bernier this year) as well as outright playing injured a lot of the time.

OP's tradeoffer doesn't do anything for the Devils anyway.
Two C level prospects and a mid rd pick doesn't fill any need for a team that already sits on one of the strongest and deepest prospect pools in the league.

rollie1967 and Archiv3 liked this.

May 15, 2022 at 3:22 p.m.

#12

mokumboi

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 17,700

Likes: 7,129

Quoting: TrueCanuck

True, but some might say Hamonic is simply better.

May 15, 2022 at 3:26 p.m.

#13

TrueCanuck

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Likes: 908

Quoting: SomethingLeafs

1st and kerfoot for Roy?

3 team trades don’t carry straight player values - they’re more complex than that. It’s a situation where you help another team get what they need so they help you. In this situation Toronto helps LA get Chychrun without giving up their own first but instead Toronto’s 1st. So in exchange it’s really Kerfoot for Roy (salary retained) which is a slight win for Toronto. But LA wins too because they get the defenceman they need. Arizona wins by getting the young prospects and picks

May 15, 2022 at 3:30 p.m.

#14

TrueCanuck

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Quoting: Tintin

Definitely wouldn’t call Voit a C level prospect, he’s more in the B- range, maybe a C+ at worst. But every report I’ve read and the people I’ve talked to say that New Jersey needs dynamic wingers. I don’t see them getting a top notch one for Blackwood because of his injury history and performance (give him excuses all you want but the bottom line is that his numbers aren’t good). So it’s a future guy that could be a 2nd line playmaker and get you 50-70 points a year. With Blackwood’s apparent disagreements with the team and agent switch, I don’t see New Jersey holding onto him past next season. So it might be smart to move him now before his value plummets more.

The best I could see Toronto doing is maybe moving Robertson for him, but that would have to be a guaranteed retention on Blackwood and a late round pick going to Toronto as well

May 15, 2022 at 3:34 p.m.

#15

TrueCanuck

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Quoting: mokumboi

True, but some might say Hamonic is simply better.

& whoever says that doesn’t know hockey.

Hamonic - https://mobile.twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1505626304019849218

Holl - https://mobile.twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1495960298687242242

May 15, 2022 at 3:38 p.m.

#16

mokumboi

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 17,700

Likes: 7,129

Quoting: TrueCanuck

& whoever says that doesn’t know hockey.

Hamonic - https://mobile.twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1505626304019849218

Holl - https://mobile.twitter.com/jfreshhockey/status/1495960298687242242

We are talking about a Sens organization that had Pierre Magoo in the office. I didn't say they were right, just that they might say he's better.

TrueCanuck liked this.

May 15, 2022 at 3:40 p.m.

#17

TrueCanuck

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Quoting: mokumboi

We are talking about a Sens organization that had Pierre Magoo in the office. I didn't say they were right, just that they might say he's better.

& I’m just proving that they’re wrong and if Hamonic returned a 3rd, why wouldn’t Holl? 😂

aadoyle liked this.

May 15, 2022 at 3:44 p.m.

#18

rollie1967

Joined: May 2016

Posts: 501

Likes: 192

If Mrazek was so easy to move- they wouldve done it this past season, he obviously was out of their plans for the playoffs- hell he was waived for nothing- and no one grabbed him.

Husso is 3 years younger than Campbell- and doesnt have his injury history, i would consider it an upgrade over Campbell, and if the Leafs thought Mrazek got 3.8 to be a tandem with Campbell as the starter...someone could very well offer Campbell the same or more to be their starter. Realistically the Leafs cant spend that on a back up. A tandem situation isnt a money saving proposition, and the Leafs have to cut corners where they can.
Grimaldi got a $2mil deal after scoring 10 goals with Nashville, then spent most of the year in the minors. Mikheyev got 21 goals in just over 50 games...theyre not even close to comparables.

May 15, 2022 at 3:47 p.m.

#19

aadoyle

Hakuna Matata

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 22,357

Likes: 16,820

Quoting: rollie1967

Husso to me is another Chris Dreidger, good in the reg season, average to below average for the playoffs. Other than game 1 he was not good as now hes the backup to Binnington once again who was terrible this season.

Campbell got hurt this year because he got run over lul. Greenway barreled into him and broke his rib resulting in the 2 months of bad play. But once he came back he rebounded nicely and put up a good fight against Tampa.

A healthy Campbell is good and I know his numbers were not fantastic but he battled hard this series heck shut out Tampa game 1. No goalie has done that to them

Mrazek was just plagued by injuries killing any momentum he had. And once he finally got settled he got hurt again. Like that Florida game was his best game and it sucks as if he didnt get hurt I would argue he might have started over Campbell.

May 15, 2022 at 3:53 p.m.

#20

aadoyle

Hakuna Matata

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Edited May 15, 2022 at 4:14 p.m.

I like the idea but I feel we could simplify things a bit

For starters I was thinking we should explore a Vanacek trade

Washington will probs want to bring in an experienced backup for Samsonov and so Vanacek is probs gone. Toronto could swing a deal for him and he could be the tandem with Campbell

Mrazek might be traded with some assets but I feel buyout is more realistic.

But as for the bottom 6 I dont know. I want more offense from them. Robertson could have a breakout year but I want to add a piece or two that can help provide some offense especially in the playoffs as while Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall was good defensively kind of were quiet offensively. I would say give Sandin and Engvall cheaper bridge deals (2 years as Brodie and Muzzin off the books by then) and use the extra space to bring in someone like Vatrano or Athinoseau

Or in other words

In:

Vanecek, Lazar, and one of Athinoseau or Vatrano

Out:

Kerfoot, Mrazek, Holl

As rn the team I have been working on is

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Robertson-Tavares-Nylander
Athanasiou-Kampf-Kase
Spezza -Lazar-Anderson

Campbell
Vanecek

Extras: Dahlstrom, Simmonds.

May 15, 2022 at 3:58 p.m.

#21

IconicHawk

ChicagoforBedard2023

Joined: May 2021

Posts: 6,139

Likes: 2,603

Mrazek is a negative asset

rollie1967 liked this.

May 15, 2022 at 4:33 p.m.

#22

mokumboi

Joined: Apr. 2019

Posts: 17,700

Likes: 7,129

Quoting: TrueCanuck

& I’m just proving that they’re wrong and if Hamonic returned a 3rd, why wouldn’t Holl? 😂

Because believe it or not, the market is not set by the worst trades you can think of. Obviously, I was in error using the word "nobody" in my original comment when the real point is that Nashville ain;t doin' that. They already have three young RDs they're developing and more on the way.

May 15, 2022 at 4:57 p.m.

#23

TrueCanuck

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Quoting: rollie1967

Toronto didn’t move Mrazek that easily because they had injury concerns and coupsnt directly lose him without someone coming back.

Also, go compare Grimaldi and Mikheyev at the same amount of games in their careers. Almost identical in points, it was actually somewhere in the 98% range of comparables so yes it close. Lol.

May 15, 2022 at 4:58 p.m.

#24

TrueCanuck

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Quoting: mokumboi

Young players need veterans to help them with ice time distribution. A 3rd round pick for an established NHLer is not a bad deal at all. You’re nitpicking.

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