I've seen a ton of VAN AGMs with Miller to Washington, and McMichael, Iorio, a first, plus more going back to Vancouver, what would be a massive overpay for the caps. This is what in my view a fair deal for Miller if 1. he extends and 2. backstrom retires this summer.
For comps i am looking at trades for pacioretty, stone, and jones, all star players who had one or less years left on their deals, made it clear they were not re-signing (the only reason imo vancouver would trade miller), and immediately signed big money extensions.
pacioretty got a middle six cap dump (Tatar), a top prospect (suzuki), and the 50th overall pick
stone got a bottom six cap dump (lindberg), a top prospect (branstrom), and the 61st pick
jones got a top prospect (boqvist), a trade up from 32 to 12, the 44th pick, and a future first
The stone and pacioretty trades were considered steals for vegas, and the jones trade a steal for columbus, so i tried to split the difference.
This gives a top prospect (lapierre), a first (around 18 overall i think) and a second (around 45). Maybe the caps add another late round pick, or a b/c tier prospect like Bear Hughes or Brett Leason, but I would not add much more
Vancouver would pull the trigger on a Miller trade if he asks too much money, not that if he told them he’s not re-signing, Rutherford said this himself on local radio.
That being said, your offer isn’t enough. A mid to low 1st and 2nd in a weak draft won’t cut it with a B level prospect
I appreciate the breakdown for your thought process. It has been reported that Miller would be open to re-signing in Vancouver, but management may simply make a hockey decision to move him. It's not same situation as Jones, Stone or Pacioretty. I think its reasonable to assume that any Miller deal would include an extension.
What that said, Canucks could retain 50% as well. Even without that, I think we can ask for McMichael over Lapierre, or maybe make the 2022 2nd a 2023 1st.
I appreciate the breakdown for your thought process. It has been reported that Miller would be open to re-signing in Vancouver, but management may simply make a hockey decision to move him. It's not same situation as Jones, Stone or Pacioretty. I think its reasonable to assume that any Miller deal would include an extension.
What that said, Canucks could retain 50% as well. Even without that, I think we can ask for McMichael over Lapierre, or maybe make the 2022 2nd a 2023 1st.
I think only way this makes sense for the caps is if backstrom retires, making retention not necessary. I do agree that Lapierre is a worse prospect than Suzuki, Branstrom, Boqvist were when they were traded, so adding a little more makes sense, but my guess is that mcmichael is almost completely off limits in DC (I know every fan says that about their team's best prospect, but caps really need guys who are on ELCs and have proven they can be top contributors). My broader point is that looking back on other big trades for stars in their late 20s needing extensions is that the returns are generally not as good as one might think.
I think only way this makes sense for the caps is if backstrom retires, making retention not necessary. I do agree that Lapierre is a worse prospect than Suzuki, Branstrom, Boqvist were when they were traded, so adding a little more makes sense, but my guess is that mcmichael is almost completely off limits in DC (I know every fan says that about their team's best prospect, but caps really need guys who are on ELCs and have proven they can be top contributors). My broader point is that looking back on other big trades for stars in their late 20s needing extensions is that the returns are generally not as good as one might think.
Pacioretty and Stone were both really good players when they were traded, but neither were close to being 100 point players, which Miller is now. They are also both wingers, while Miller is a center that can also play wing.
I think the biggest thing that hurts the Canucks here is Scheifele likely being available as well. Teams can pay up for him instead.
qc14 liked this.
Reply
CapFriendly
CapFriendly