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RFA dilemma

May 19, 2022 at 8:51 p.m.
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Are the lightning going to be able to keep all three of Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak beyond their current bridge deals? I'm not so sure

Sergachev and Cirelli both have QO's of 7.2M respectively, while Cernak has a 4.425M QO. The Lightning are already icing an undermanned lineup just to stay cap compliant as is, I don't see how they are able to afford to keep all three of those guys around while simultaneously allocating top dollars to the rest of their core players
May 19, 2022 at 9:39 p.m.
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I think (hope) they keep Cirelli and Cernak and trade Sergachev for a haul
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May 19, 2022 at 9:42 p.m.
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Quoting: imawesome
I think (hope) they keep Cirelli and Cernak and trade Sergachev for a haul


I think Sergachev is worth a 1st plus a mid-tier prospect, he's a 2nd pair defender on most a fringe playoff teams
May 20, 2022 at 6:45 p.m.
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Quoting: Knuckl3s
I think Sergachev is worth a 1st plus a mid-tier prospect, he's a 2nd pair defender on most a fringe playoff teams


Tampa quickly declines any offer like that. Serg and Cirelli have a QO of max 5.76, and Cernak at 3.54. Depending on how much needs to be allocated for Foote and Colton, maybe they consider trading Serg, but even so, it's for 1st+roster player they need+good prospect. A 1st+B prospect gets a team nowhere close, unless the pick is like top 5-7 or something. If Tampa was looking to move him, L.A. would give up a lot more than a mid 1st and meh prospect. Roy+Chromiak/****emo+1st or maybe their 2nd for Serg+3rd(if a 1st was coming, 4th if a 2nd). Something like that might get Brisebois interested, otherwise, pass. Many teams will be in on Serg if Tampa makes him available.
May 20, 2022 at 6:48 p.m.
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Quoting: JTBF81
Tampa quickly declines any offer like that. Serg and Cirelli have a QO of max 5.76, and Cernak at 3.54. Depending on how much needs to be allocated for Foote and Colton, maybe they consider trading Serg, but even so, it's for 1st+roster player they need+good prospect. A 1st+B prospect gets a team nowhere close, unless the pick is like top 5-7 or something. If Tampa was looking to move him, L.A. would give up a lot more than a mid 1st and meh prospect. Roy+Chromiak/****emo+1st or maybe their 2nd for Serg+3rd(if a 1st was coming, 4th if a 2nd). Something like that might get Brisebois interested, otherwise, pass. Many teams will be in on Serg if Tampa makes him available.


Yeah I guess, so long as he seems to be on the way to being a top-notch defenseman, I don't quite think he's there yet. Can't underestimate the market for Sergy that's for sure. That said, I thought the QO's for those three players were under the old rules rather than the new ones
May 20, 2022 at 6:52 p.m.
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Quoting: imawesome
I think (hope) they keep Cirelli and Cernak and trade Sergachev for a haul


I agree. I proposed Serg+3rd or 4th for Roy+Chromiak+1st, and had mostly favorable replies on different sites. If Tampa needed the RD this would be solid(assuming Rutta leaves), and Chromiak is looking like a top 6(at least middle 6 scoring winger). I could see replacing Chromiak with ****emo or someone else, or maybe Durzi instead of Roy if his contract was manageable, but something like that I could see for Serg. Detroit could be another option, if they were willing to give up 8oa+a close to ready prospect/young nhl player, but for sure Tampa would get many callers on him if JBB decides to take offers.
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May 20, 2022 at 6:55 p.m.
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Quoting: Knuckl3s
Yeah I guess, so long as he seems to be on the way to being a top-notch defenseman, I don't quite think he's there yet. Can't underestimate the market for Sergy that's for sure. That said, I thought the QO's for those three players were under the old rules rather than the new ones


Since their contracts were signed after a certain date, their QO's ate a max of 120% of their current aav. I'm sure Serg won't take that little, but that's the most Tampa has to qualify him at.
May 20, 2022 at 6:57 p.m.
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Quoting: Knuckl3s
Yeah I guess, so long as he seems to be on the way to being a top-notch defenseman, I don't quite think he's there yet. Can't underestimate the market for Sergy that's for sure. That said, I thought the QO's for those three players were under the old rules rather than the new ones


Here's what I found about that: For players who are on expiring contracts that were signed after July 10, 2020:The Qualifying Offer is limited to 120% of their previous contracts annual average (AAV)Reference: 2020 NHL CBA extension Memorandum of Understanding (
May 20, 2022 at 7:03 p.m.
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Quoting: JTBF81
Since their contracts were signed after a certain date, their QO's ate a max of 120% of their current aav. I'm sure Serg won't take that little, but that's the most Tampa has to qualify him at.


Quoting: JTBF81
Here's what I found about that: For players who are on expiring contracts that were signed after July 10, 2020:The Qualifying Offer is limited to 120% of their previous contracts annual average (AAV)Reference: 2020 NHL CBA extension Memorandum of Understanding (


Ah, I see
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May 23, 2022 at 12:07 p.m.
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Quoting: imawesome
I think (hope) they keep Cirelli and Cernak and trade Sergachev for a haul


I totally get why people want to trade Sergachev but I really would be surprised if they do. If you look at where he fits in on the team's timeline, the fact that he hasn't been traded yet I think tells you that the plan is to keep him long-term for when Hedman and McDonagh age out of being able to carry the top 2 pairs.

The limited role he has been playing for the past few years is something they very easily could have replaced with an affordable vet, So, if they didn't plan to keep him for the long-term, they would've traded him years ago and they would have gotten an even bigger haul by trading him with more years of cost control and before his development seemingly plateaued.

I know he can be frustrating and I am skeptical that he can step up to be a high-end top 4 d, but there's just no other difference makers on D in the pipeline. If you get rid of him, you're basically saying that our window to win ends when Hedman and McDonagh regress, and they will be 33 and 34 next summer. Keeping Sergachev helps give you some chance to extend the window through Point's prime.

I think they end up doing everything they can to keep 98 and 71 and then replace everyone else they cant keep.
May 23, 2022 at 9:13 p.m.
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Quoting: thejayman
I totally get why people want to trade Sergachev but I really would be surprised if they do. If you look at where he fits in on the team's timeline, the fact that he hasn't been traded yet I think tells you that the plan is to keep him long-term for when Hedman and McDonagh age out of being able to carry the top 2 pairs.

The limited role he has been playing for the past few years is something they very easily could have replaced with an affordable vet, So, if they didn't plan to keep him for the long-term, they would've traded him years ago and they would have gotten an even bigger haul by trading him with more years of cost control and before his development seemingly plateaued.

I know he can be frustrating and I am skeptical that he can step up to be a high-end top 4 d, but there's just no other difference makers on D in the pipeline. If you get rid of him, you're basically saying that our window to win ends when Hedman and McDonagh regress, and they will be 33 and 34 next summer. Keeping Sergachev helps give you some chance to extend the window through Point's prime.

I think they end up doing everything they can to keep 98 and 71 and then replace everyone else they cant keep.


Here is the thing though, you have to pay Sergachev premium dollars to keep him around long-term BEFORE Hedman and McDonagh's deals are up. Lightning may have no choice but to declare that the window ends when Hedman and McDonagh come off the books considering their cap situations. I too am a bit skeptical about Sergachev's ability to be a top-notch defenseman, but I think we'd all be very comfortable with him in an everyday 2nd pair role
May 24, 2022 at 9:53 a.m.
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Quoting: Knuckl3s
Here is the thing though, you have to pay Sergachev premium dollars to keep him around long-term BEFORE Hedman and McDonagh's deals are up. Lightning may have no choice but to declare that the window ends when Hedman and McDonagh come off the books considering their cap situations. I too am a bit skeptical about Sergachev's ability to be a top-notch defenseman, but I think we'd all be very comfortable with him in an everyday 2nd pair role


The ideal situation would be Sergachev taking the QO and "agreeing" to a big 8 year deal the next year when stamkos's current deal comes off. But even if he's not willing to do that, the numbers would work. Killorn coming off the books+cirelli sergachev and cernak's current deal frees up 17 million, which is likely more than would be necessary to keep 98 and 71 but not 81.
May 24, 2022 at 4:33 p.m.
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Quoting: thejayman
The ideal situation would be Sergachev taking the QO and "agreeing" to a big 8 year deal the next year when stamkos's current deal comes off. But even if he's not willing to do that, the numbers would work. Killorn coming off the books+cirelli sergachev and cernak's current deal frees up 17 million, which is likely more than would be necessary to keep 98 and 71 but not 81.


And then your best RD is Foote, who right now looks like, at best, he could be a bad 5th defenseman, more suited for 6th D-man minutes
May 24, 2022 at 10:09 p.m.
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Quoting: imawesome
And then your best RD is Foote, who right now looks like, at best, he could be a bad 5th defenseman, more suited for 6th D-man minutes


Yeah, unless at least one of Perbix/Thompson/Schmidt is able to be a consistent 2nd/3rd pairing RD in the next year or two, Cernak should be the last of the rfas to be moved. Disagree on Foote a bit though, he has seemed to take a step forward lately, and I think he can still be a solid 4/5 type in the future.
May 24, 2022 at 10:42 p.m.
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Quoting: JTBF81
Yeah, unless at least one of Perbix/Thompson/Schmidt is able to be a consistent 2nd/3rd pairing RD in the next year or two, Cernak should be the last of the rfas to be moved. Disagree on Foote a bit though, he has seemed to take a step forward lately, and I think he can still be a solid 4/5 type in the future.


He has taken a step forward lately, but unless he takes another step I don't see him getting into the top 4 anytime soon
May 24, 2022 at 10:44 p.m.
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Quoting: thejayman
The ideal situation would be Sergachev taking the QO and "agreeing" to a big 8 year deal the next year when stamkos's current deal comes off. But even if he's not willing to do that, the numbers would work. Killorn coming off the books+cirelli sergachev and cernak's current deal frees up 17 million, which is likely more than would be necessary to keep 98 and 71 but not 81.


Still don't think that's enough cap room to keep all three RFA's
May 24, 2022 at 10:59 p.m.
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Quoting: imawesome
He has taken a step forward lately, but unless he takes another step I don't see him getting into the top 4 anytime soon


He'll be top 4 next year most likely if they can't re-sign Rutta. Figure Bogo and Perbix will start as the 6/7 on the right side if Rutta walks, with Thompson the next call up from Syracuse.
May 24, 2022 at 11:00 p.m.
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Quoting: JTBF81
He'll be top 4 next year most likely if they can't re-sign Rutta. Figure Bogo and Perbix will start as the 6/7 on the right side if Rutta walks, with Thompson the next call up from Syracuse.


Cal Foote being able to play top 4 minutes as soon as next season if ever sounds like MAJOR wishful thinking to me
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May 24, 2022 at 11:06 p.m.
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Quoting: Knuckl3s
Still don't think that's enough cap room to keep all three RFA's


Killorn's 4.45+the 1 million cap increase will give Tampa between 4.5 and 5 million to go towards them. Foote and Colton(likely a little more since the replacements for at least one of PEB/Perry will be a Syracuse player and save another ~200k). Cirelli should be between 5.5 and 6. Cernak around 4-4.5, Foote gets a small bump and Colton up to around 2.5-3 maybe. They would of have enough to give Serg around 5.75-6 tops in thks scenario if they worked the deals right, maybe 6 25ish. Honestly I wouldn't go any higher on Serg than around 6 anyway, so if his camp is demanding Hedman money or close, that's when JBB moves him for 2 or 3 high quality assets and uses the savings to add as needed.
May 24, 2022 at 11:10 p.m.
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Quoting: Knuckl3s
Cal Foote being able to play top 4 minutes as soon as next season if ever sounds like MAJOR wishful thinking to me


Why? He's been very solid in the playoffs so far(one of the biggest surprises to be sure), and he's definitely shown improvement. Ideally they re-sign Rutta and he stays 3rd pairing(or if they move Serg then maybe they get a better top 4 RD in the deal and find a solid and cheaper 3LD or get a prospect in the trade), but he has 4/5 upside moving forward.
May 24, 2022 at 11:17 p.m.
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Quoting: JTBF81
Why? He's been very solid in the playoffs so far(one of the biggest surprises to be sure), and he's definitely shown improvement. Ideally they re-sign Rutta and he stays 3rd pairing(or if they move Serg then maybe they get a better top 4 RD in the deal and find a solid and cheaper 3LD or get a prospect in the trade), but he has 4/5 upside moving forward.


Meh, he's looked just okay to me, upside is still just upside, doesn't mean I can't be pessimistic about him reaching that ceiling you propose
May 24, 2022 at 11:20 p.m.
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Quoting: JTBF81
Killorn's 4.45+the 1 million cap increase will give Tampa between 4.5 and 5 million to go towards them. Foote and Colton(likely a little more since the replacements for at least one of PEB/Perry will be a Syracuse player and save another ~200k). Cirelli should be between 5.5 and 6. Cernak around 4-4.5, Foote gets a small bump and Colton up to around 2.5-3 maybe. They would of have enough to give Serg around 5.75-6 tops in thks scenario if they worked the deals right, maybe 6 25ish. Honestly I wouldn't go any higher on Serg than around 6 anyway, so if his camp is demanding Hedman money or close, that's when JBB moves him for 2 or 3 high quality assets and uses the savings to add as needed.


I highly doubt it all ends up playing out that smoothly. Someone currently on their roster is going to have to be sacrificed for cap reasons next off-season, I'm already taking that to the bank
May 25, 2022 at 12:08 a.m.
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Quoting: Knuckl3s
I highly doubt it all ends up playing out that smoothly. Someone currently on their roster is going to have to be sacrificed for cap reasons next off-season, I'm already taking that to the bank


Not unless that's what JBB wants. He already knows Palat and Killorn will be gone, or he may already have a plan to try and re-sign Palat and trade Serg. The math pretty much works, and so Tampa could take an approach for the next 3 or so years where they have to rely on a couple younger forwards in the bottom 6(or find a couple more vets willing to take close to league min) to help with the loss of Killorn and Palat, or they move Serg for assets that can provide a good top 4 for a couple years or a younger LD prospect that is about ready in addition to a great F prospect and a pick to keep things rolling. JBB has always been very good at the numbers management, so no doubt he and his staff already have some plans set for the next few years. He often has signed extensions the year before the contract ends, so this Summer could be telling as to the direction they will take.
May 25, 2022 at 12:50 a.m.
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Quoting: JTBF81
Not unless that's what JBB wants. He already knows Palat and Killorn will be gone, or he may already have a plan to try and re-sign Palat and trade Serg. The math pretty much works, and so Tampa could take an approach for the next 3 or so years where they have to rely on a couple younger forwards in the bottom 6(or find a couple more vets willing to take close to league min) to help with the loss of Killorn and Palat, or they move Serg for assets that can provide a good top 4 for a couple years or a younger LD prospect that is about ready in addition to a great F prospect and a pick to keep things rolling. JBB has always been very good at the numbers management, so no doubt he and his staff already have some plans set for the next few years. He often has signed extensions the year before the contract ends, so this Summer could be telling as to the direction they will take.


I guess, still a tight rope to walk tho
May 25, 2022 at 1:30 a.m.
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Quoting: Knuckl3s
I guess, still a tight rope to walk tho


For sure, Tampa will have to continue to be very meticulous with cap management for the next couple of years until Stammer comes off(but hopefully stays on a new deal that works for both sides) and some actual cap increases occur. Hopefully, even when Tampa loses two of Palat/Killorn/Serg, the other moves JBB will make will keep the team very competitive for quite a few years to come.
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