Thread Starter
Joined: Aug. 2020
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I did some math so no one else has to.
Looking back at the last three seasons worth of data, and taking each players goals per 82 games played rates, assuming everyone on this roster plays 82 games at their average for the last three years, this team can be expected to score 252 goals next season. That would have been good enough for 16th in the league this year. Assuming the GAA doesn't change much (because we haven't improved the defense or goaltending at all) our projected goal differential is close to 0.
Obviously there's a lot of room for error with this model, because guys like Boldy should improve (though without Fiala, how much he actually does is a valid question). For the sake of simplicity, I assume injuries and regression from the top two lines will cancel out any potential improvements on these numbers from guys like Boldy, Gaudreau, Jost, Dewar.
Teams that had a roughly even goal differential this season were Los Angeles, Winnipeg, New York Islanders, Dallas. Two of them made the post-season as wild card teams, two of them missed the playoffs.