Forums/Armchair-GM

One Big Trade

Created by: fangm
Initial Creation Date: May 24, 2022
Published: May 25, 2022
Team: 2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Sandin, Rasmus2$2,000,000
Liljegren, Timothy2$2,000,000
Kase, Ondrej2$2,000,000
Engvall, Pierre2$2,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Spezza, Jason1$800,000
Blackwell, Colin1$800,000
Comrie, Eric3$2,000,000
Rooney, Kevin2$800,000
Cogliano, Andrew1$800,000
Smith, Brendan1$800,000
Trades
1.
TOR
  1. Varlamov, Semyon
  2. Beauvillier, Anthony
  3. Pánik, Richard
Additional Details:
Islanders get a platoon goalie to work with Sorokin, a LD which they desperately need. A defensive forward who had 51 points last year and can move up and down the lineup.
NYI
  1. Mrázek, Petr
  2. Muzzin, Jake
  3. Kerfoot, Alexander
  4. 2023 3rd round pick (TOR)
Additional Details:
Leafs take a cap dump in Panik who is current buried in the minors then get a more offensive forward for the top 6 and a starting goalie.
Buried
  • Richard Pánik: $250,000 ($1,375,000)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2022
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the TOR
2023
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2024
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$82,500,000$81,868,116$212,500$0$631,884
Left WingCenterRight Wing
Logo of the TOR
Bunting, Michael
$950,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the TOR
Matthews, Auston
$11,640,250
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the TOR
Marner, Mitchell
$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the NYI
Beauvillier, Anthony
$4,150,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the TOR
Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 3
Logo of the TOR
Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the TOR
Engvall, Pierre
$2,000,000
LW, C
RFA
Logo of the TOR
Kämpf, David
$1,500,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the TOR
Kase, Ondrej
$2,000,000
RW
RFA
Cogliano, Andrew
$800,000
LW
UFA
Logo of the TOR
Spezza, Jason
$800,000
C, RW
UFA
Logo of the TOR
Blackwell, Colin
$800,000
C, RW
UFA
Rooney, Kevin
$800,000
LW, C, RW
UFA
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the TOR
Rielly, Morgan
$7,500,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 8
Logo of the TOR
Brodie, TJ
$5,000,000
LD/RD
NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the NYI
Varlamov, Semyon
$5,000,000
G
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the TOR
Giordano, Mark
$800,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the TOR
Liljegren, Timothy
$2,000,000
RD
RFA - 2
Comrie, Eric
$2,000,000
G
UFA
Logo of the TOR
Sandin, Rasmus
$2,000,000
LD/RD
RFA
Logo of the TOR
Holl, Justin
$2,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 1
Smith, Brendan
$800,000
LD/RD, LW
UFA

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May 25 at 12:08 a.m.
#1
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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Gee, who is" Islanders get a platoon goalie to work with Sorokin,"? You can't mean the always injured Mrzarek? Gee, if Panik is a 250,000 cap dump, what are Mrzarek and Muzzin?
GenXHockey liked this.
May 25 at 12:14 a.m.
#2
Lets go Avalance
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That’s not enough for Beauviller alone.
May 25 at 12:22 a.m.
#3
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Edited May 25 at 12:38 a.m.
How is Beauvillier a more offensive forward? Kerfoot has outscored his top mark for points in a season multiple times and did it without the heavy PP time Beau got.

Even if we expand it out across the past 3 seasons Kerfoot has been a far more offensive forward than Beau. Remove the PP time and it gets even more ridiculous. Kerfoot is sitting at 2.09 points/60 while Beau is at 1.69. That's close to a 25% difference between the 2 players points wise across the past 3 seasons for the guy you are calling a less offensive option.

To put it all into perspective. Not only is Kerfoot the more offensive forward, hes the more defensive one as well who kills penalties and can flex to center up and down the lineup.
May 25 at 12:24 a.m.
#4
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i just don't see the value here for NYI, panik's 250k for one year comes nowhere close to wiping out mrazek
May 25 at 12:28 a.m.
#5
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Doesn’t make sense for Islanders taking on a horrendous contract in Mrazek and I’ve seen capfriendly deals trying to ship out Muzzin for a 3rd since he’s overpaid by a somewhere around a million adding Kerfoot and a third doesn’t make up for that whatsoever not to mention I think Beauviller puts up easily 50+ points on a stacked team with a way better offensive system
May 25 at 1:31 a.m.
#6
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Funny no mention of the 2 cap dumps coming from the Leaf side.
May 25 at 1:54 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: Byrr
How is Beauvillier a more offensive forward? Kerfoot has outscored his top mark for points in a season multiple times and did it without the heavy PP time Beau got.

Even if we expand it out across the past 3 seasons Kerfoot has been a far more offensive forward than Beau. Remove the PP time and it gets even more ridiculous. Kerfoot is sitting at 2.09 points/60 while Beau is at 1.69. That's close to a 25% difference between the 2 players points wise across the past 3 seasons for the guy you are calling a less offensive option.

To put it all into perspective. Not only is Kerfoot the more offensive forward, hes the more defensive one as well who kills penalties and can flex to center up and down the lineup.


Total points are not a good way to measure offensive ability when one player passengers their way to 40/50 points on one of the highest scoring teams in the league, while the other plays on one of the most defensively based teams in the league.

Base if off their Corsi For per 60 (offensive scoring chances generated per 60). This is their numbers over the last 3 seasons at EV and it is clear Beau is definitely better offensive player:fq6lVAJ.png
May 25 at 2:04 a.m.
#8
BigMeech
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leafs arent capable of taking on a cap dump
May 25 at 2:08 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Total points are not a good way to measure offensive ability when one player passengers their way to 40/50 points on one of the highest scoring teams in the league, while the other plays on one of the most defensively based teams in the league.

Base if off their Corsi For per 60 (offensive scoring chances generated per 60). This is their numbers over the last 3 seasons at EV and it is clear Beau is definitely better offensive player:fq6lVAJ.png


Corsi For isn't some kind of magic stat. Points scored actually predict future success better than Corsi does. Even looking towards modelers for the actual advanced stats, rather than Corsi, they favor Kerfoot offensively.
May 25 at 2:12 a.m.
#10
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Quoting: Byrr
Corsi For isn't some kind of magic stat. Points scored actually predict future success better than Corsi does. Even looking towards modelers for the actual advanced stats, rather than Corsi, they favor Kerfoot offensively.


No not really, because just looking at actual points doesn't factor in situations at all. Does "points scored" predict that Kerfoot will put up 40-50 points playing in Toronto's system? Yeah probably, does it predict how many points Beauvillier would put up in Toronto's system? No not at all
May 25 at 2:14 a.m.
#11
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Edited May 25 at 2:24 a.m.
Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
No not really, because just looking at actual points doesn't factor in situations at all. Does "points scored" predict that Kerfoot will put up 40-50 points playing in Toronto's system? Yeah probably, does it predict how many points Beauvillier would put up in Toronto's system? No not at all


No not really? Yes....yes really. Its proven fact. Corsi doesn't predict the future very well and does so worse than points scored. Corsi is basically just +/- with a bigger sample size. It's not even scoring chances for like you suggested, its just shots.
May 25 at 2:19 a.m.
#12
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
No not really, because just looking at actual points doesn't factor in situations at all. Does "points scored" predict that Kerfoot will put up 40-50 points playing in Toronto's system? Yeah probably, does it predict how many points Beauvillier would put up in Toronto's system? No not at all


Screen-Shot-2022-04-19-at-12.33.33-PM.png
Screen-Shot-2022-04-19-at-1.21.05-PM.png

You'll notice one had a much bigger offensive impact.
May 25 at 2:24 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: Byrr
No not really? Yes....yes really. Its proven fact. Corsi doesn't predict the future very well and does so worse than points scored. Corsi is basically just +/- with a bigger sample size.


I am not talking about Corsi percent. I am purely talking about Corsi for. Which only looks at offensive chances generated, which is exactly what you are attempting to argue against. And the stats point to Beauvillier being the player that generates more offense per 60 at EV

If you genuinely think that points scored predicts the future than why did Elias Lindholm go from a 45 point player to a 78 point player in 1 year when he went from a rebuilding team to a playoff team. Why did Dougie Hamilton go from a 0.8ppg player to a 0.5 ppg player when he went from a contender to rebuilding team. Why would Beauvillier's production not drastically increase from playing on a significantly more offense based team?
May 25 at 2:27 a.m.
#14
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
I am not talking about Corsi percent. I am purely talking about Corsi for. Which only looks at offensive chances generated, which is exactly what you are attempting to argue against. And the stats point to Beauvillier being the player that generates more offense per 60 at EV

If you genuinely think that points scored predicts the future than why did Elias Lindholm go from a 45 point player to a 78 point player in 1 year when he went from a rebuilding team to a playoff team. Why did Dougie Hamilton go from a 0.8ppg player to a 0.5 ppg player when he went from a contender to rebuilding team. Why would Beauvillier's production not drastically increase from playing on a significantly more offense based team?


The same reason guys like Dvorak stayed at the same rate going from non-playoff team to non-playoff team. Specific examples aren't going to mean anything when you are talking about a wide sample size, see players across all modern day NHL seasons. You actually have no idea what you are talking about here and have shown it. Corsi isn't even scoring chances like you've been repeatedly saying, its just shot attempts.
May 25 at 2:27 a.m.
#15
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Quoting: Byrr
Screen-Shot-2022-04-19-at-12.33.33-PM.png
Screen-Shot-2022-04-19-at-1.21.05-PM.png

You'll notice one had a much bigger offensive impact.


What I notice is your ability to regurgitate the exact same information over and over
May 25 at 2:29 a.m.
#16
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
What I notice is your ability to regurgitate the exact same information over and over


What I notice is the guys who understand and use the advanced stats agreeing with that information. Don't worry, we shouldn't listen to the experts like them ... we should listen to you who doesn't even know what Corsi is.
May 25 at 2:33 a.m.
#17
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Quoting: Byrr
The same reason guys like Dvorak stayed at the same rate going from non-playoff team to non-playoff team. Specific examples aren't going to mean anything when you are talking about a wide sample size, see players across all modern day NHL seasons. You actually have no idea what you are talking about here and have shown it. Corsi isn't even scoring chances like you've been repeatedly saying, its just shots.


LMAO how do you both prove my point and think you are disproving it at the exact same time? Dvorak is a great example of my point. He would probably have around 50 points too if he and Kerfoot swapped places.

You don't know what Corsi is, it is goals, shots on goal, missed shots, blocked shots. AKA scoring chances. If it was just "shots" like you claim then it would not include misses and blocked shots
May 25 at 2:35 a.m.
#18
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
LMAO how do you both prove my point and think you are disproving it at the exact same time? Dvorak is a great example of my point. He would probably have around 50 points too if he and Kerfoot swapped places.

You don't know what Corsi is, it is goals, shots on goal, missed shots, blocked shots. AKA scoring chances. If it was just "shots" like you claim then it would not include misses and blocked shots


A shot attempt is not a scoring chance. Those are not the same thing. Again, lets just pay attention to the experts with these stats shall we? They obviously know better than you and they agree with me when it comes to Kerfoot vs Beauvilliers offensive input when it comes to advanced stats.
May 25 at 2:36 a.m.
#19
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Quoting: Byrr
What I notice is the guys who understand and use the advanced stats agreeing with that information. Don't worry, we shouldn't listen to the experts like them ... we should listen to you who doesn't even know what Corsi is.


You don't get it. This conversation is about what Beauvillier would hypothetically do in Toronto, not what he will do next year in New York (like your graphs show).
May 25 at 2:38 a.m.
#20
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
You don't get it. This conversation is about what Beauvillier would hypothetically do in Toronto, not what he will do next year in New York (like your graphs show).


That's the conversation you are having. The conversation the OP was having and I was replying to was that Beauvillier is the more offensive forward and the stats, both basic like points and advanced like in the models, don't agree.
May 25 at 2:43 a.m.
#21
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Quoting: Byrr
That's the conversation you are having. The conversation the OP was having and I was replying to was that Beauvillier is the more offensive forward and the stats, both basic like points and advanced like in the models, don't agree.


But they don't if anything they show Kerfoot had an outlier season
May 25 at 2:45 a.m.
#22
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
But they don't if anything they show Kerfoot had an outlier season


Which is why I used the past 3 seasons as a baseline. Try to keep up.
May 25 at 2:51 a.m.
#23
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Quoting: Byrr
Which is why I used the past 3 seasons as a baseline. Try to keep up.


I am, and that is why I used the past 3 as well. Beauviller was also better than Kerfoot in GAR and WAR the in all but this season. He also had a strictly better GF/60 and xGF/60 last year, in 19/20 they were roughly the same.

The above images you posted only take into consideration results from this season
May 25 at 2:56 a.m.
#24
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Edited May 25 at 3:02 a.m.
Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
I am, and that is why I used the past 3 as well. Beauviller was also better than Kerfoot in GAR and WAR the in all but this season. He also had a strictly better GF/60 and xGF/60 last year, in 19/20 they were roughly the same.

The above images you posted only take into consideration results from this season


Not how Dom does his cards. The actual results show this season, the projected results use the past 3. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about here and are just running around in circles. I've shown that even the experts expect higher offensive output from Kerfoot than Beau. There's no arguing against it.

The bottom line is that Beau would need to more than double his points this season(even strength, he won't get the same PP time on the Leafs) on a team that only scored around 25% more. Its an unreasonable expectation even just looking at the basic numbers. There's nothing to argue here when the experts disagree with you and even the basic numbers show your expectations are unreasonable. I'm done here
May 25 at 3:02 a.m.
#25
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Quoting: Byrr
Not how Dom does his cards. The actual results show this season, the projected results use the past 3. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about here and are just running around in circles. I've shown that even the experts expect higher offensive output from Kerfoot than Beau. There's no arguing against it.

The bottom line is that Beau would need to more than double his points this season(even strength, he won't get the same PP time on the Leafs) on a team that only scored around 33% more. Its an unreasonable expectation even just looking at the basic numbers. There's nothing to argue here when the experts disagree with you and even the basic numbers show your expectations are unreasonable. I'm done here


Youve shown 1 set of images. I can just as easily counter with JFresh's cards which clearly favoured Beauvillier last year.
E2Lq8MzXMAcb4qM?format=jpg&name=900x900
E61JVCFWQAMFZ3u?format=jpg&name=900x900

Look at the gap in EV offense. It's not even close.
 
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