Gee, who is" Islanders get a platoon goalie to work with Sorokin,"? You can't mean the always injured Mrzarek? Gee, if Panik is a 250,000 cap dump, what are Mrzarek and Muzzin?

That’s not enough for Beauviller alone.

How is Beauvillier a more offensive forward? Kerfoot has outscored his top mark for points in a season multiple times and did it without the heavy PP time Beau got.

Even if we expand it out across the past 3 seasons Kerfoot has been a far more offensive forward than Beau. Remove the PP time and it gets even more ridiculous. Kerfoot is sitting at 2.09 points/60 while Beau is at 1.69. That's close to a 25% difference between the 2 players points wise across the past 3 seasons for the guy you are calling a less offensive option.

To put it all into perspective. Not only is Kerfoot the more offensive forward, hes the more defensive one as well who kills penalties and can flex to center up and down the lineup.

i just don't see the value here for NYI, panik's 250k for one year comes nowhere close to wiping out mrazek

Doesn’t make sense for Islanders taking on a horrendous contract in Mrazek and I’ve seen capfriendly deals trying to ship out Muzzin for a 3rd since he’s overpaid by a somewhere around a million adding Kerfoot and a third doesn’t make up for that whatsoever not to mention I think Beauviller puts up easily 50+ points on a stacked team with a way better offensive system

Funny no mention of the 2 cap dumps coming from the Leaf side.

Total points are not a good way to measure offensive ability when one player passengers their way to 40/50 points on one of the highest scoring teams in the league, while the other plays on one of the most defensively based teams in the league.

Base if off their Corsi For per 60 (offensive scoring chances generated per 60). This is their numbers over the last 3 seasons at EV and it is clear Beau is definitely better offensive player:

leafs arent capable of taking on a cap dump

Corsi For isn't some kind of magic stat. Points scored actually predict future success better than Corsi does. Even looking towards modelers for the actual advanced stats, rather than Corsi, they favor Kerfoot offensively.

No not really, because just looking at actual points doesn't factor in situations at all. Does "points scored" predict that Kerfoot will put up 40-50 points playing in Toronto's system? Yeah probably, does it predict how many points Beauvillier would put up in Toronto's system? No not at all

No not really? Yes....yes really. Its proven fact. Corsi doesn't predict the future very well and does so worse than points scored. Corsi is basically just +/- with a bigger sample size. It's not even scoring chances for like you suggested, its just shots.

You'll notice one had a much bigger offensive impact.

I am not talking about Corsi percent. I am purely talking about Corsi for. Which only looks at offensive chances generated, which is exactly what you are attempting to argue against. And the stats point to Beauvillier being the player that generates more offense per 60 at EV

If you genuinely think that points scored predicts the future than why did Elias Lindholm go from a 45 point player to a 78 point player in 1 year when he went from a rebuilding team to a playoff team. Why did Dougie Hamilton go from a 0.8ppg player to a 0.5 ppg player when he went from a contender to rebuilding team. Why would Beauvillier's production not drastically increase from playing on a significantly more offense based team?

The same reason guys like Dvorak stayed at the same rate going from non-playoff team to non-playoff team. Specific examples aren't going to mean anything when you are talking about a wide sample size, see players across all modern day NHL seasons. You actually have no idea what you are talking about here and have shown it. Corsi isn't even scoring chances like you've been repeatedly saying, its just shot attempts.

What I notice is your ability to regurgitate the exact same information over and over

What I notice is the guys who understand and use the advanced stats agreeing with that information. Don't worry, we shouldn't listen to the experts like them ... we should listen to you who doesn't even know what Corsi is.

LMAO how do you both prove my point and think you are disproving it at the exact same time? Dvorak is a great example of my point. He would probably have around 50 points too if he and Kerfoot swapped places.

You don't know what Corsi is, it is goals, shots on goal, missed shots, blocked shots. AKA scoring chances. If it was just "shots" like you claim then it would not include misses and blocked shots

A shot attempt is not a scoring chance. Those are not the same thing. Again, lets just pay attention to the experts with these stats shall we? They obviously know better than you and they agree with me when it comes to Kerfoot vs Beauvilliers offensive input when it comes to advanced stats.

You don't get it. This conversation is about what Beauvillier would hypothetically do in Toronto, not what he will do next year in New York (like your graphs show).

That's the conversation you are having. The conversation the OP was having and I was replying to was that Beauvillier is the more offensive forward and the stats, both basic like points and advanced like in the models, don't agree.

But they don't if anything they show Kerfoot had an outlier season

Which is why I used the past 3 seasons as a baseline. Try to keep up.

I am, and that is why I used the past 3 as well. Beauviller was also better than Kerfoot in GAR and WAR the in all but this season. He also had a strictly better GF/60 and xGF/60 last year, in 19/20 they were roughly the same.

The above images you posted only take into consideration results from this season

Not how Dom does his cards. The actual results show this season, the projected results use the past 3. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about here and are just running around in circles. I've shown that even the experts expect higher offensive output from Kerfoot than Beau. There's no arguing against it.

The bottom line is that Beau would need to more than double his points this season(even strength, he won't get the same PP time on the Leafs) on a team that only scored around 25% more. Its an unreasonable expectation even just looking at the basic numbers. There's nothing to argue here when the experts disagree with you and even the basic numbers show your expectations are unreasonable. I'm done here

Youve shown 1 set of images. I can just as easily counter with JFresh's cards which clearly favoured Beauvillier last year.



Look at the gap in EV offense. It's not even close.