Forums/Armchair-GM

My prediction on Guerins offseason

Created by: drmantalban
Initial Creation Date: May 14, 2022
Published: May 25, 2022
Team: 2022-23 Minnesota Wild
Team Explanation
Based on his most recent podcast appearance w/Russo, it sounded like he intends to keep Middleton and wants DLo back.

Fiala is gone - the package is just a proxy, but he’s outtie. I also think Kuli could be a cap casualty.

Finally, I fully expect a Dumba extension. Not sure exactly when that can be agreed upon, but my guess is Guerin already has it ready and waiting.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Dewar, Connor2$925,000
Middleton, Jacob2$2,000,000
Fiala, Kevin6$7,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Deslauriers, Nicolas2$1,200,000
Bjugstad, Nick1$925,000
Trades
1.
MIN
  1. 2022 5th round pick (NYI)
NYI
  1. Kulikov, Dmitry
Additional Details:
Anywhere
2.
MIN
  1. Gustavsson, Filip
  2. 2022 1st round pick (OTT)
OTT
  1. Fiala, Kevin
Buyouts
  • Ryan Suter: $6,371,794
  • Zach Parise: $6,371,794
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2022
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the MIN
2023
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
2024
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the MIN
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
24$82,500,000$80,311,921$0$1,532,500$2,188,079

Roster

Left WingCenterRight Wing
Logo of the MIN
Kaprizov, Kirill
$9,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the MIN
Hartman, Ryan
$1,700,000
C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the MIN
Zuccarello, Mats
$6,000,000
RW, LW
NMC NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the MIN
Foligno, Marcus
$3,100,000
LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the MIN
Eriksson Ek, Joel
$5,250,000
C
UFA - 7
Logo of the MIN
Greenway, Jordan
$3,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the MIN
Boldy, Matthew
$880,833
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the MIN
Gaudreau, Frédérick
$1,200,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the MIN
Jost, Tyson
$2,000,000
C, LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the MIN
Duhaime, Brandon
$750,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the MIN
Dewar, Connor
$925,000
LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the MIN
Deslauriers, Nicolas
$1,200,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 4
Logo of the MIN
Rossi, Marco
$863,333
C
RFA - 3
Logo of the MIN
Bjugstad, Nick
$925,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the MIN
Middleton, Jacob
$2,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the MIN
Spurgeon, Jared
$7,575,000
RD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the MIN
Talbot, Cam
$3,666,667
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the MIN
Brodin, Jonas
$6,000,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the MIN
Dumba, Matt
$6,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the OTT
Gustavsson, Filip
$787,500
G
RFA - 1
Logo of the MIN
Merrill, Jon
$1,200,000
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the MIN
Goligoski, Alex
$2,000,000
LD/RD
NMC
UFA - 2
Logo of the MIN
Addison, Calen
$795,000
RD
RFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the MIN
Shaw, Mason
$750,000
C
RFA - 1
Taxi Squad
Logo of the MIN
Cramarossa, Joseph
$750,000 ($0)
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the MIN
Mermis, Dakota
$750,000 ($0)
LD/RD
UFA - 1

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May 25 at 10:59 a.m.
#1
sensonfire
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I have a feeling you might be extremely disappointed about the actual return on Fiala.
May 25 at 11:03 a.m.
#2
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Pretty realistic. I think you're about $1M short on Middleton, but you have to cap here for that.

Part of me wonders if we should target a 1st next year instead. That draft class looks way deeper than this year and while a 7th overall pick is definitely nice, I think if you push the pick to next year you could probably get a better player than Gustavsson attached to the package (ideally Pinto, but I think we'd have to add to that) because a dollar today is worth more than tomorrow.
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May 25 at 11:08 a.m.
#3
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Quoting: sensonfire
I have a feeling you might be extremely disappointed about the actual return on Fiala.


Maybe, I’m not delusional. I’m well aware of all the comps, I understand the contract nuances, I get all of the downward pressures on his value. So I may be disappointed, but I wouldn’t necessarily be shocked.

But I also see a 25 year old guy who just threw up 85 points in a league that’s tending towards more offense.
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May 25 at 11:08 a.m.
#4
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I do like Fiala, but even at this price tag (I feel he gets more) I would say no,

Even at 7, the pick is real value to bring in a very quality player and Gus is at least going to be a great backup for the sens for years, if not potentially a 1B goalie.
May 25 at 11:11 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: TanSor
Pretty realistic. I think you're about $1M short on Middleton, but you have to cap here for that.

Part of me wonders if we should target a 1st next year instead. That draft class looks way deeper than this year and while a 7th overall pick is definitely nice, I think if you push the pick to next year you could probably get a better player than Gustavsson attached to the package (ideally Pinto, but I think we'd have to add to that) because a dollar today is worth more than tomorrow.


Id be open to punting the pick to 2023 in the right package. As you know, it obviously depends on the team and any pick conditions, but I def think that’s something worth exploring and could be a shrewd way to amp up the raw value a bit.
May 25 at 11:15 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: NDoody
I do like Fiala, but even at this price tag (I feel he gets more) I would say no,

Even at 7, the pick is real value to bring in a very quality player and Gus is at least going to be a great backup for the sens for years, if not potentially a 1B goalie.


Yeah makes sense. Hard to keep up these days - half the Sens fans I encounter say Gus is dispensable while the other half says he’s essential.
May 25 at 11:19 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: sensonfire
I have a feeling you might be extremely disappointed about the actual return on Fiala.


The bolded part sums up being a Wild fan in general. lol
May 25 at 11:21 a.m.
#8
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Quoting: drmantalban
Yeah makes sense. Hard to keep up these days - half the Sens fans I encounter say Gus is dispensable while the other half says he’s essential.


Yeah, it's hard sometimes to gauge prospects on other teams because some fans create ACGMs where they're tossing away prospects like candy (often because of draft position).
May 25 at 11:21 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: drmantalban
Yeah makes sense. Hard to keep up these days - half the Sens fans I encounter say Gus is dispensable while the other half says he’s essential.


He could be, I don't see him as a sure thing starter at the NHL level, but would be a great backup. The real Sens goalie prospect I would say is untouchable is Sogard.
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May 25 at 11:37 a.m.
#10
... We're a "Team"..
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Quoting: drmantalban
Yeah makes sense. Hard to keep up these days - half the Sens fans I encounter say Gus is dispensable while the other half says he’s essential.


7th overall and a "potential" starting goaltender for a legit top 6 player is a pretty decent deal, IMO. A future of Gus and Wallstedt ain't a bad one...

One of the only reasons to keep a goalie like Gus is that we are so uncertain about Murray's health. The emergence of Soogard makes it a little easier to swallow along with Levi Merillainen looking pretty good in the O.

My other concern is the 7th pick becoming one of Kemell, Slafkovsky or Jiricek... doubtful those players make it out of the top 5... but the players drop for one reason or another.
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May 25 at 1:31 p.m.
#11
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@drmantalban

I really could see a deal involving LA cause their prospect pool is so deep.

Like I could see potentially:
TO LA
Kevin Fiala
Dmitry Kulikov

TO MIN
2023 1st round pick (Top 5 or 10 protected but there will be some sort of protection on that pick cause that top of the draft looks quite good.)
Alexander Turcott
Helge Grans
Kasper Simontaival

I don't see it as Ottawa anymore cause I think that NJ or LA would offer something better and I feel that because of Ottawa's ownership uncertainty that they might not be able to pay for it and the healthy payraise that Fiala deserves. I think Ottawa might get Chabot and Tkachuk to convince a veteran like Burakovsky, Perron, or Giroux to come join the Sens for less. Then keep the pick and potentially add another top six forward like Kemell, Lekkerimaki, or Savoie.
May 25 at 1:57 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: JustanIdea
drmantalban

I really could see a deal involving LA cause their prospect pool is so deep.

Like I could see potentially:
TO LA
Kevin Fiala
Dmitry Kulikov

TO MIN
2023 1st round pick (Top 5 or 10 protected but there will be some sort of protection on that pick cause that top of the draft looks quite good.)
Alexander Turcott
Helge Grans
Kasper Simontaival

I don't see it as Ottawa anymore cause I think that NJ or LA would offer something better and I feel that because of Ottawa's ownership uncertainty that they might not be able to pay for it and the healthy payraise that Fiala deserves. I think Ottawa might get Chabot and Tkachuk to convince a veteran like Burakovsky, Perron, or Giroux to come join the Sens for less. Then keep the pick and potentially add another top six forward like Kemell, Lekkerimaki, or Savoie.


Yeah LA makes a ton of sense to me too. Wouldn’t at all be surprised if that’s where he ends up. The main reason I’m not sold on them as a front runner is because 1) I see them pursuing Chychrun, and 2) LA is actually a reasonable place for attracting free agents (compared to say OTT, WPG or BUF type places).

Which, IMO raises a counterpoint to your OTT argument. Giroux maybe, yes. But how likely is it really that Burakovsky or others choose OTT in FA. They’ll have a multitude of choices and OTT just hasn’t proven to be a first class destination.

Regarding NJ, I don’t see them as front runners at all. I can’t find the common ground in value. They won’t give up 2nd OA, Mercer or Holtz, but MN shouldn’t be accepting Zacha, Stillman, or mid round picks. Maaaaybe a 23 1st with conditions, but that’s a stretch for me.
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May 25 at 2:00 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: drmantalban
Yeah LA makes a ton of sense to me too. Wouldn’t at all be surprised if that’s where he ends up. The main reason I’m not sold on them as a front runner is because 1) I see them pursuing Chychrun, and 2) LA is actually a reasonable place for attracting free agents (compared to say OTT, WPG or BUF type places).

Which, IMO raises a counterpoint to your OTT argument. Giroux maybe, yes. But how likely is it really that Burakovsky or others choose OTT in FA. They’ll have a multitude of choices and OTT just hasn’t proven to be a first class destination.

Regarding NJ, I don’t see them as front runners at all. I can’t find the common ground in value. They won’t give up 2nd OA, Mercer or Holtz, but MN shouldn’t be accepting Zacha, Stillman, or mid round picks. Maaaaybe a 23 1st with conditions, but that’s a stretch for me.


2023 first is probably more valuable and I think that if LA really wanted to they could go out and get both without really letting their prospect pool run dry.
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May 25 at 2:06 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: JustanIdea
2023 first is probably more valuable and I think that if LA really wanted to they could go out and get both without really letting their prospect pool run dry.


I think they definitely could, but I’m not sure how realistic that is. These GMs operate with a certain level of self-preservation / job protection and big splashes like that can be risky.

Not saying it won’t happen, just some things that give me pause when it comes to LA. On the whole, I think they’re a good fit.
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May 25 at 2:18 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: drmantalban
I think they definitely could, but I’m not sure how realistic that is. These GMs operate with a certain level of self-preservation / job protection and big splashes like that can be risky.

Not saying it won’t happen, just some things that give me pause when it comes to LA. On the whole, I think they’re a good fit.


I think that if they loss out on Chychrun or he becomes unavailable then they will definetly go and get Kevin Fiala.
 
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