we miss leo k
Joined: Feb. 2018
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Just to give some context: you're offering Oesterle, #48, #52, & #112 for #13. Dom @ the Athletic has a draft value chart based on your expected GSVA for each pick - basically looks at the the first 7 years of each pick from 2000-2019 and calculates how valuable that player was to his team during his first 7 years (the years a team would have control over them.)
#13 is valued at 5.3 GSVA. #48 & 52 are, predictably, similar in value - 1.7 & 1.5 GSVA respectively. #112 is worth 0.4. So in picks alone, Detroit is offering 3.6 GSVA worth of value for a pick valued at 5.3 - so they're 1.7 GSVA short, and that's before you factor in the idea that the team moving up should overpay - I only think it's fair to do so though. Give a team a reason to give up the better asset and all.
Jordan Oesterle is not enough to make up that gap - he was worth -1.3 GSVA this season and the three seasons before was never worth more than 0.0 - the replacement player's replacement player. I'd argue that the Red Wings would have to offer something close to the value of an early 2nd-round pick to even get near fair value on this (FWIW, the players on the Red Wings this season that fit that value would've been Robby Fabbri, but I could also understand that it's unlikely Detroit would be trading guys like that just to move up in the draft - just bringing him to give an idea of the value.)