I can’t see Philly doing this. But I’d be down to move up from 7 to 5

TK value is probably a first, Lodin, Brannstrom (seems to be what most have agreed on)

And I wouldn’t be upset going from 5 to 7 with a 2nd plus, only if the Flyers really want Kemell

So this kinda works out in the value swap imo… I don’t hate it…

That said, MJ looked really good as a Sen and if I’m Ottawa I’m trying to keep him and add another good prospect in, but I know Philly wants to compete even though they shouldn’t so this might be a fair trade off

I'd rather stay at 5th overall than 7th and just buyout JVR instead of paying to dump him.


Travis Konecny
James vanRiemsdyk
5th overall


Roby Jarventie
Mathieu Joseph
Viktor Lodin
7th overall
39th overall
2023 3rd round pick (OTT)

Assuming the 39th overall pick makes up the difference between 5th and 7th overall, it's TK + JVR for Jarvenite + Joseph + Lodin + 3rd.

You linked my page where I had TK for Greig + 39th + 2023 2nd. I'd do that trade, but I wouldn't sell low on TK in a package with JVR.

https://theathletic.com/1798463/2020/06/12/by-the-numbers-revisiting-the-true-value-of-a-draft-pick/

So 39OA is an overpay to move from 7 to 5. It could be done with the TBL 2nd.

The difference between the TBL 2nd and the OTT 2nd, is... a TBL 2nd.

---------------------------

Broken down as 3 trades:

7OA + 63OA v 5OA

Branny + 39OA + 2023 3rd + Lodin v Konecny

Jarventie + Joseph v JVR

-----------------

Even if you think youre losing the Konecny one, I expect what youre making up in JVR makes up for it no?

If you kept them as 3 trades, dependent on eachother, how would you tweak them?

I probably wouldn’t take this with the TBL deal in place, but 39 overall I do.

I want to be able to trade that up a bit and land Jagger Frikus and a 39 plus a prospect could get me him lol

I really don't know

1) With that trade, Ottawa wants to move from the 7th OA pick to the 5th OA pick...

Van Riemsdyk is a 1 year cap dump, Ottawa isn't sending a cap dump.

Konecny for Joseph and Järventie and 3rd

Lodin and that early 2nd to move up 2 spots

I think I'd rather explore a different avenue, unless one of Nemec/Slafkovsky would still be available at 5th?

2) Getting a late first for Brown at 50% retention would just prove massive incompetence by Dorion (again). Look at the prices guys like Lehkonen and Hagel returned at the deadline. What was the point to trade Brown at the draft and not at the past deadline? Just another one to the pile of 99 reasons to fire Dorion



Not trading Greig unless maybe in a package for an impact player

Youve gotta convince other people of CBrowns value. I didnt want to argue about it because it wasnt the point, so I chose a safe value.

IMHO he is worth a 1st, with retention, 1st+

I dont see Hagel as comparable at all as he is 1/2 as expensive and has more than 2x the term. Lehkonen got what, Baron and a late 2nd?

Your trade breakdowns are off. Less pick value to bump to 5, Higher value on Konecny

As far as why not trade Brown at the deadline:

1. Dorion likes to do that, look at Karlsson

2. He wants to "try" and compete a bit this season

Brown *should* be traded this offseason or deadline.

Yeah but if you have DECIDED to trade Connor, you do it when he is at his PEAK value... which would be last deadline. If you're not doing that, you're just a BAD GM. But Dorion doesn't need any more presentations.

- Last deadline, Hagel had 2.33 seasons left, Brown had 1 less year (1.33) but a much longer track record... and if you retain (like you did here), then the difference is very small (1.8 vs 1.5). At the deadline, a 300K$ difference is nothing as it is pro-rated. Based on the deal that happened, Brown would have had crazy value this past deadline. If Dorion MISSED THAT BOAT to trade him now, he is not only bad, he is just stupid too. GMs absolutely need to be aware of market value fluctuations and do some astute asset management. But can't blame him, he's not a manager

- Lehkonen returned Barron and a 2nd yes, but Barron was a 1st round pick in 2020. Lehkonen is an excellent player, really similar to Brown but Connor actually produces more every season. Only difference is Lehkonen is RFA at the end of this season which kinda offsets the last point.




Sorry, what is off?

Yeah Dorion is a bad GM.

Also, Sunk Cost falacy though eh. The fact that we missed peak value doesnt mean it still isnt the right thing to trade him now

As for what is off, I have outlined what the pick values are that are required to move up and why they are those picks

Also, youre undervaluing Konecy. Compare what you presented vs What I have outlined above