There have been some interesting ACGM scenarios moving Alex DeBrincat to New Jersey. But the prices being suggested and getting a little far-fetched. A number of reasons why:
First…. DeBrincat is not the type of winger NJD needs or is looking to add this off-season. Our priorities for the position are adding (a) a net-front player; (b) a puck retriever that can battle in the corners; (c) a little more shot-blocking from wing; (d) a little more physicality. DeBrincat is an excellent player, but is much more of a want than a need for us.
Second… top-5 picks do not get moved often. In fact, in the cap era, a top-5 pick has never been moved for a player. You would have to go back to the 2001 trade between Senators and Islanders when Yashin was sent to NYI to find anything that resembles the prices being suggested today.
Third…Wingers grow on trees. Sorry, but they do. There are always plenty available and teams should never overpay for them. Just this off-season, Devils have been linked to Gaudreau, Boeser, Forsberg, Fiala, Tkachuk, Garland, Pastrnak, DeBrincat and more (mostly speculation at this point). If there will be a bidding war, it will be over the #2 pick (after all, there is only one of those).
Fourth…the Blackhawks got a great return from Tampa Bay in the Hagel deal. But salary cap had a lot to do with that price as Hagel had 3 years x $1.5 million. DeBrincat makes $6.4 million this year and will likely get $2-3m raise next summer. Additionally, two late 1st round picks is no where near the value of a 2nd overall selection (look up any draft pick trade value chart).
Fifth…listen to comps. History can be a guide to the future, so use previous trade returns to build something this year. It doesn’t matter so much to me which comp you use. None will be perfect. But all of them together will help predict what the market could pay for a player (Patrik Laine, Dany Heatley, Rick Nash, Tyler Seguin, Marian Gaborik, Phil Kessel, James Neal, Scott Hartnell, Artemi Panarin, Mark Stone, Ryan Kesler, Jeff Skinner, Ilya Kovalchuk, etc….there are many to chose from).
Here are few examples of Cat-to-NJD trades from other users on ACGM:
I’ve been the one posting most of the Cat proposals. I think you make some valid points. I think u guys get more than just 2OA for sure. An interesting one u proposed is Holtz and 2023 1st. 2023 is a stronger draft which may cause the Hawks to prefer that pick. I think I’d do Holtz + 2023 first. At that point, we can take Cat from u and then take Slafkovsky
I’m thinking rather simple: Debrincat for 2nd overall. I do agree his play style not a great fit. But his timeline is a good fit, better than any other big name out there. I think that’s where the rumours are coming from.
Just using my perspective on what a Fiala deal would look like (at least one of 23 1st, Holtz, or Mercer and another piece), I think Cat should get at least 2 of those pieces and another piece. It’s the other piece in all of those deals that I’m not confident in. So I think your range is close but it’s still very wide.
The one piece I wonder about Cat is his QO. I think he absolutely worth it on a long term deal but how many teams can fit that? I know NJD can, but not sure if they want to.
Just using my perspective on what a Fiala deal would look like (at least one of 23 1st, Holtz, or Mercer and another piece), I think Cat should get at least 2 of those pieces and another piece. It’s the other piece in all of those deals that I’m not confident in. So I think your range is close but it’s still very wide.
The one piece I wonder about Cat is his QO. I think he absolutely worth it on a long term deal but how many teams can fit that? I know NJD can, but not sure if they want to.
I think that’s a great base for him. As a Wild fan, I maintain he’s a more proven talent than Fiala and that package is my dream. I think another decent piece goes back.
Again, I wonder what the market looks like for him given that QO.
Excellent analysis. I can see why NJ would be hesitant. From the Hawks perspective, a lot of those proposed trades made sense. Want to get a Hagel-type haul back. Will be interesting to see where Debrincat ends up.
I’ve been the one posting most of the Cat proposals. I think you make some valid points. I think u guys get more than just 2OA for sure. An interesting one u proposed is Holtz and 2023 1st. 2023 is a stronger draft which may cause the Hawks to prefer that pick. I think I’d do Holtz + 2023 first. At that point, we can take Cat from u and then take Slafkovsky
Blackhawks opted for 2023/2024 picks in Tampa trade, which could suggest they want more, later.
But I don’t think Devils would need to add anything to 2nd overall.
I’m thinking rather simple: Debrincat for 2nd overall. I do agree his play style not a great fit. But his timeline is a good fit, better than any other big name out there. I think that’s where the rumours are coming from.
Debrincat is an /elite/ goalscorer in this league.
The Devils should choose the cost certainty and team control of Holtz + Slaf/Cooley despite the uncertainty and risk in the outcome. They should upgrade their team in other ways.
I think that’s a great base for him. As a Wild fan, I maintain he’s a more proven talent than Fiala and that package is my dream. I think another decent piece goes back.
Again, I wonder what the market looks like for him given that QO.
The biggest difference between Fiala and DeBrincat scenarios is obviously salary cap as Devils can’t send much $ to MIN. Gritsyuk and a future conditional 1st should be more discussed.
I'd add a #6 and it's not intended to be mean, but more realistic...NJD are a bad team. Worse than the Hawks! So it's not like they're contending next year or likely even the year after. NJD needs to take their time and just be happy with what they have.
The Hurricanes are the team that should trade for the cat. They need a goal scorer, They're trying to win now, and have a really deep farm system too.
The biggest difference between Fiala and DeBrincat scenarios is obviously salary cap as Devils can’t send much $ to MIN. Gritsyuk and a future conditional 1st should be more discussed.
Oh, I think it will be and in a vacuum probably gets it done. I just think the market is gonna be large for him, which changes the prospect.
FWIW, I don’t see the upside most people are selling on Gritsyuk. I get he had a decent season at Avangard but it wasn’t one that makes me think he’s got top 6 upside. I also follow the NHLe scene and I get the models rate him highly but the track record for small scoring wings from Russia isn’t as great as I’d like it to be.
I'd add a #6 and it's not intended to be mean, but more realistic...NJD are a bad team. Worse than the Hawks! So it's not like they're contending next year or likely even the year after. NJD needs to take their time and just be happy with what they have.
The Hurricanes are the team that should trade for the cat. They're trying to win now and have a really deep farm system too.
This is patently not true. The hawks are quite bad and getting worse. Devils are going the other way.
I'd add a #6 and it's not intended to be mean, but more realistic...NJD are a bad team. Worse than the Hawks! So it's not like they're contending next year or likely even the year after. NJD needs to take their time and just be happy with what they have.
The Hurricanes are the team that should trade for the cat. They're trying to win now and have a really deep farm system too.
TBH, it’s the devils chance to jump the line. Prospects are great but they are variable. Cat is a proven goal scorer. Yes you will have to sign him for $9m after his deal is up. That’s what premier goal scorers make. But he is predictable at this point, he is going to throw up 30+, a prospect? You guys have some pieces that would complement his game.
This is patently not true. The hawks are quite bad and getting worse. Devils are going the other way.
Well you're wrong and right. The Devils are getting better and the Hawks are getting worse. No doubt. Where you're wrong is their record this year was worse....so they were a worse team this year. It's just a fact.
Well you're wrong and right. The Devils are getting better and the Hawks are getting worse. No doubt. Where you're wrong is their record last year was worse....so they were a worse team last year.
I have a hunch that if you swapped NJD to the central and CHI to the metro, NJD is fighting for a playoff spot and CHI ends up last in that division.
The western conference is not as strong as you may believe. I don’t really buy the parity argument because the central got 5 teams by default due to the pacific being awful, where as TB was a wild card in the East. Very different environments.
The western conference is not as strong as you may believe. I don’t really buy the parity argument because the central got 5 teams by default due to the pacific being awful, where as TB was a wild card in the East. Very different environments.
The western conference is not as strong as you may believe. I don’t really buy the parity argument because the central got 5 teams by default due to the pacific being awful, where as TB was a wild card in the East. Very different environments.
My issue is you think a team with literally a worse record is going to join the central...a better division...and somehow a worse team will fight for a playoff spot? It would only take them SEVENTEEN more wins to enter into a tied break with NSH.
justaBoss liked this.
Holtz,
Reply
CapFriendly
CapFriendly