SalarySwishSalarySwish
Forums/NHL

2021-22 NHL Off-season Discussion Thread - #3

Jun. 20, 2022 at 3:50 p.m.
#376
I make typos
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2020
Posts: 5,324
Likes: 4,991
Quoting: justaBoss
Lmao that 2008-2012 period was a dark time for Oilers.


yes, yes it was
Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:07 p.m.
#377
Avatar of the user
Joined: Aug. 2020
Posts: 9,527
Likes: 8,968
Quoting: csick
Wonder if they could swing Matt Murray (50% retained) and Connor Brown for Kassian + B- prospect and 2022 1st. Would be a fair trade imo. Assuming Keith and Smith retire

I’d rather just do C. Brown for a 1st straight up. Although I think we can get a better 1st than 29oa tbh (I’m thinking Washington at 20 or Pittsburgh at 21 maybe). If we trade C. Brown I’d like it to be with a target in mind (like Chesley or Miroshnichenko). And I want no part of Kassian, he’s worse than Watson at the same role (plus retaining half on Murray means the cap hit is higher, and I would literally rather have Murray in the AHL than Kassian on the roster blocking a roster spot).
csick liked this.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:09 p.m.
#378
KFTW
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 42,157
Likes: 23,514
Quoting: Alfie11
I’d rather just do C. Brown for a 1st straight up. Although I think we can get a better 1st than 29oa tbh (I’m thinking Washington at 20 or Pittsburgh at 21 maybe). If we trade C. Brown I’d like it to be with a target in mind (like Chesley or Miroshnichenko). And I want no part of Kassian, he’s worse than Watson at the same role (plus retaining half on Murray means the cap hit is higher, and I would literally rather have Murray in the AHL than Kassian on the roster blocking a roster spot).


Yeah I’d love a pick around 20 to get Chesley, Miro, McGroarty , Howard, Bichsel , Ohgren or Ostlund
Alfie11 liked this.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:12 p.m.
#379
KFTW
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 42,157
Likes: 23,514
Anyone got any insights on Kasper? Seems like there’s rumours Gauthier and Kasper are going above Kemell and Savoie .
Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:13 p.m.
#380
me wan da poonani
Avatar of the user
Joined: Sep. 2020
Posts: 4,857
Likes: 4,243
Quoting: oilersguy
I don't understand all the hype for Kuzmeko, lets wait and see what he can do in the NHL first before you start calling him a 50 point winger like I have seen people say about him. for every Panarin or Zub there is like 20 Gusev's or Shipachyov's


Gusev actually had one really decent season.
Very surprised with the way he just fell off for that 2nd year.
oilersguy and Devil liked this.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:24 p.m.
#381
Speak of the Devil
Avatar of the user
Joined: Nov. 2017
Posts: 23,925
Likes: 26,426
Quoting: Tintin
Gusev actually had one really decent season.
Very surprised with the way he just fell off for that 2nd year.


Gusev just stopped trying defensively and was all around lazy.
Great KHL player but doesn't have the two-way game needed for a successful NHL player
Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:25 p.m.
#382
KFTW
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 42,157
Likes: 23,514
Montreal could probably get good returns for Petry and Anderson if they retained 3 mill and 2 mill respectively . At those salaries , tough to take those 2 players longterm .
Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:26 p.m.
#383
v5 CBJ GM
Avatar of the user
Joined: Feb. 2019
Posts: 15,844
Likes: 8,548
Quoting: csick
Montreal could probably get good returns for Petry and Anderson if they retained 3 mill and 2 mill respectively . At those salaries , tough to take those 2 players longterm .


3.25 for petry isnt bad, 3.5 for anderson same thing
however problem with retaining for that long is its 5M in dead cap for three years, then petry comes off the books
csick liked this.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:30 p.m.
#384
I make typos
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2020
Posts: 5,324
Likes: 4,991
Quoting: Alfie11
I’d rather just do C. Brown for a 1st straight up. Although I think we can get a better 1st than 29oa tbh (I’m thinking Washington at 20 or Pittsburgh at 21 maybe). If we trade C. Brown I’d like it to be with a target in mind (like Chesley or Miroshnichenko). And I want no part of Kassian, he’s worse than Watson at the same role (plus retaining half on Murray means the cap hit is higher, and I would literally rather have Murray in the AHL than Kassian on the roster blocking a roster spot).


Goalie roster spots are A LOT more valuable the more forwards ones
Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:31 p.m.
#385
What in tarnation
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2017
Posts: 32,708
Likes: 31,448
Quoting: Alfie11
I’d rather just do C. Brown for a 1st straight up. Although I think we can get a better 1st than 29oa tbh (I’m thinking Washington at 20 or Pittsburgh at 21 maybe). If we trade C. Brown I’d like it to be with a target in mind (like Chesley or Miroshnichenko). And I want no part of Kassian, he’s worse than Watson at the same role (plus retaining half on Murray means the cap hit is higher, and I would literally rather have Murray in the AHL than Kassian on the roster blocking a roster spot).


After a 10 goal year and him being a rental I don't see anyone spending a first for Brown. Maybe a 2nd if there's retention in place.

He pretty much goes under the same niche as Kerfoot now, and neither of them is worth a 1st round pick.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:34 p.m.
#386
KFTW
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 42,157
Likes: 23,514
Quoting: Zuki9797
3.25 for petry isnt bad, 3.5 for anderson same thing
however problem with retaining for that long is its 5M in dead cap for three years, then petry comes off the books

Quoting: Zuki9797
3.25 for petry isnt bad, 3.5 for anderson same thing
however problem with retaining for that long is its 5M in dead cap for three years, then petry comes off the books


I don’t think doing anything but tanking next few years is a good idea. So try to build a good team within 2-3 years while the horrible contracts run out and other guys are gone and figure out who u wanna keep. Hoffman, Drouin, Armia, Byron , etc should not come back. Price retires too that’s a lot of money
Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:42 p.m.
#387
Avatar of the user
Joined: Aug. 2021
Posts: 14,999
Likes: 12,084
Everywhere Trotz has coached he has had a huge influence on the roster. Poille used to draft and sign guys in free agency that were “Trotz guys” , on the isles be was allowed to choose which one of Leddy/Toews he’d rather have on the team.


Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:46 p.m.
#388
Thread Starter
Ban Price trades
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2017
Posts: 6,474
Likes: 6,450
Quoting: Alfie11
I’d rather just do C. Brown for a 1st straight up. Although I think we can get a better 1st than 29oa tbh (I’m thinking Washington at 20 or Pittsburgh at 21 maybe). If we trade C. Brown I’d like it to be with a target in mind (like Chesley or Miroshnichenko). And I want no part of Kassian, he’s worse than Watson at the same role (plus retaining half on Murray means the cap hit is higher, and I would literally rather have Murray in the AHL than Kassian on the roster blocking a roster spot).


I have very little input regarding your choice of draft pick but I wouldn't expect any team to be thrilled about taking on the combination of Brown and Murray at varying retentions without some sort of salary cap going the other way. There isn't enough mobility in the cap over the next 3 seasons to suggest that teams won't do their damnedest to make cap-equivalent moves.
csick liked this.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:51 p.m.
#389
Avatar of the user
Joined: Aug. 2020
Posts: 9,527
Likes: 8,968
Quoting: justaBoss
After a 10 goal year and him being a rental I don't see anyone spending a first for Brown. Maybe a 2nd if there's retention in place.

He pretty much goes under the same niche as Kerfoot now, and neither of them is worth a 1st round pick.

I don’t think that’s really a knock on Brown tbh, he still put up the same level of offensive production, he just shifted from shooter to playmaker this year because of linemates (last year he was most commonly with Tierney, whose shot is pathetic, so he had to do all the shooting and was scoring at a 30 goal pace, this year he was with Stutzle, and there was also the break out of guys like Norris/Formenton as goal scorers, so he didn’t need to be the triggerman). He can still put up 20 goals if he needs to, and will find a way to get to 50 points (with PP2 time) regardless. He’s also a top PKer, as well as tops in forward ice time for the Sens (over 20 mins a night) because he plays all situations, generally taking all the hardest matchups (him+Tierney last year, him+Paul this year generally were relied on as the shutdown duo up front). I think he’s a decent step up from Kerfoot at a similar role (Brown plays more PK time and is trusted with more total time against tougher competition [Kerfoot was 8th among Leafs forwards in ATOI, nearly 5 mins less per game than Brown], similar offensive production but Brown has the better shot). Half-retained he should be able to get a 1st, an excellent 3rd line shutdown guy who regularly scores 20 goals who can comfortably fill in a top 6 role in case of injuries for 1.8mil is pretty valuable (see: Coleman).
Jun. 20, 2022 at 4:58 p.m.
#390
What in tarnation
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2017
Posts: 32,708
Likes: 31,448
Quoting: Alfie11
I don’t think that’s really a knock on Brown tbh, he still put up the same level of offensive production, he just shifted from shooter to playmaker this year because of linemates (last year he was most commonly with Tierney, whose shot is pathetic, so he had to do all the shooting and was scoring at a 30 goal pace, this year he was with Stutzle, and there was also the break out of guys like Norris/Formenton as goal scorers, so he didn’t need to be the triggerman). He can still put up 20 goals if he needs to, and will find a way to get to 50 points (with PP2 time) regardless. He’s also a top PKer, as well as tops in forward ice time for the Sens (over 20 mins a night) because he plays all situations, generally taking all the hardest matchups (him+Tierney last year, him+Paul this year generally were relied on as the shutdown duo up front). I think he’s a decent step up from Kerfoot at a similar role (Brown plays more PK time and is trusted with more total time against tougher competition [Kerfoot was 8th among Leafs forwards in ATOI, nearly 5 mins less per game than Brown], similar offensive production but Brown has the better shot). Half-retained he should be able to get a 1st, an excellent 3rd line shutdown guy who regularly scores 20 goals who can comfortably fill in a top 6 role in case of injuries for 1.8mil is pretty valuable (see: Coleman).


Coleman's value came from the fact he had two years of term.

Kerfoot is that low on ATOI because Leafs is so top heavy team. Brown is one of Ottawa's top assets, but same can't be said about Kerfoot and Toronto. Both players would end up playing in depth roles in actual contenders.

I can see Brown half retained getting a similar to deal to what for instance Copp got (maybe little less than that given Copp can play C), but a straight first...nah. There's too many iffy explanations there, I don't see a GM being like yeah he's worth a ton he just got hindered by the fact that he had to play with f*cking Tierney. If anything that should be on OTT coaching staff, which is not exactly great in my opinion.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 5:04 p.m.
#391
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2020
Posts: 12,657
Likes: 17,293
Quoting: csick
Montreal could probably get good returns for Petry and Anderson if they retained 3 mill and 2 mill respectively . At those salaries , tough to take those 2 players longterm .


We can definitely get a good Anderson/Petry return without retaining, would they be worth it probably no, but if we move Petry/Anderson, it’s for good value, no point in moving them otherwise
Jun. 20, 2022 at 5:05 p.m.
#392
Avatar of the user
Joined: Aug. 2020
Posts: 9,527
Likes: 8,968
Quoting: BeterChiarelli
I have very little input regarding your choice of draft pick but I wouldn't expect any team to be thrilled about taking on the combination of Brown and Murray at varying retentions without some sort of salary cap going the other way. There isn't enough mobility in the cap over the next 3 seasons to suggest that teams won't do their damnedest to make cap-equivalent moves.

I mean if both are going then there will obviously be some cap coming back. But I’m not really concerned with our cap situation for the next couple years, so I’d rather ride out Murray’s contract by demoting him (which Sens management has shown they’re willing to do), which is fine because Gustavsson’s still cheap for now. He’d be more useful as a mentor for Sogaard than Kassian would as an NHLer for us for the same cap hit (might save some actual dollars, haven’t checked, but you’ll never catch me caring about billionaire corporations handing out a few extra mil). Plus it nerfs C. Brown’s trade value, he’s the ideal Swiss army knife player that coaches love, and at 1.8mil I think he’s got incredible value (I reckon that’s probably ~3mil below market value if he was a UFA, a step below Hyman but similar to Coleman seems like the right market value). He’s also our final expendable trade asset with high value so I’d prefer to maximize that (at this point in Ottawa’s rebuild I’d value a single top 20 pick as better than 3 or 4 2nds because what we’re missing is another 2 big pieces, a top 6 winger and top 4 RD, not depth, we’ve got plenty of that coming), rather than saddling Murray to him.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 5:07 p.m.
#393
KFTW
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 42,157
Likes: 23,514
Quoting: A_Habs_fan
We can definitely get a good Anderson/Petry return without retaining, would they be worth it probably no, but if we move Petry/Anderson, it’s for good value, no point in moving them otherwise


You’re not getting more than the value of a 2nd without retention for either
Tintin liked this.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 5:10 p.m.
#394
I make typos
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2020
Posts: 5,324
Likes: 4,991




this made me laugh
csick, Saskleaf and BeterChiarelli liked this.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 5:10 p.m.
#395
Avatar of the user
Joined: Oct. 2020
Posts: 12,657
Likes: 17,293
Quoting: csick
You’re not getting more than the value of a 2nd without retention for either


I’d take a 2nd for Petry no retention, for Anderson though, he’s the type I’d see a GM overpay for and end up paying a 1st (+ maybe )
Jun. 20, 2022 at 5:12 p.m.
#396
KFTW
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 42,157
Likes: 23,514
Quoting: A_Habs_fan
I’d take a 2nd for Petry no retention, for Anderson though, he’s the type I’d see a GM overpay for and end up paying a 1st (+ maybe )


You’d def have to take a Kassian back to make a deal work.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 5:16 p.m.
#397
Avatar of the user
Joined: Aug. 2017
Posts: 8,440
Likes: 6,060
Edited Jun. 20, 2022 at 5:22 p.m.
If anyones interested I updated my website so it now has a revamped WAR visualization and a brand new 5v5 xG impact visualization for every NHL player. Its intended as a completely free to use alternative to JFresh or Evolving Wild subscriptions (but with way less features tbh)

I found a dataset for prospect projections and NHLe so I might add another page for that if I have time before the draft

I also renamed the website since last time I posted: https://upsidedownhockey.herokuapp.com/

Here's an example of DeBrincat's WAR visualization:

CExy6JCl.png

and an example of Fiala's xG Impact visualization:

sfxuhHPl.png

@Richard88 I think you liked these last time they were posted but I dont think you use the forums here so I thought Id tag you
Db1899, zk97, Tintin and 2 others liked this.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 5:27 p.m.
#398
Go leafs go
Avatar of the user
Joined: Apr. 2020
Posts: 13,179
Likes: 9,152
Quoting: Alfie11
I’d rather just do C. Brown for a 1st straight up. Although I think we can get a better 1st than 29oa tbh (I’m thinking Washington at 20 or Pittsburgh at 21 maybe). If we trade C. Brown I’d like it to be with a target in mind (like Chesley or Miroshnichenko). And I want no part of Kassian, he’s worse than Watson at the same role (plus retaining half on Murray means the cap hit is higher, and I would literally rather have Murray in the AHL than Kassian on the roster blocking a roster spot).


Quoting: csick
Yeah I’d love a pick around 20 to get Chesley, Miro, McGroarty , Howard, Bichsel , Ohgren or Ostlund


You guys can have pick 25 for CBrown.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 5:29 p.m.
#399
KFTW
Avatar of the user
Joined: Jul. 2018
Posts: 42,157
Likes: 23,514
Quoting: Saskleaf
You guys can have pick 25 for CBrown.


I’d take that
Saskleaf liked this.
Jun. 20, 2022 at 5:36 p.m.
#400
Go leafs go
Avatar of the user
Joined: Apr. 2020
Posts: 13,179
Likes: 9,152
Quoting: csick
I’d take that


I think it’s fair for both teams. Though I’d think there would be a couple more pieces in the deal.
csick liked this.
 
To create a post please Login or Register
Question:
Options:
Add Option
Submit Poll