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2022 Predictions - Past Trends over Rankings

2022 Predictions - Past Trends over Rankings

Draft Class: 2022
Created By: mmhawk23
Published: Jun. 15, 2022 at 10:52 a.m.
ROUND 1TEAMORIGINALPLAYERDETAILS
1Logo of the Montreal Canadiens-Boy has this gotten tighter lately. Slaf has gotten so much better and can be a dominant scorer, but he still doesn't quite clip the 2-way game of Wright. But this is turning more into a safety pick than a confident pick.
2Logo of the New Jersey Devils-Trend #1 is mocks tend not to take player's improvement over their draft year into account enough. We'll see this later on, but for Slaf, everyone luckily has noticed. Dominant against men the past few months and a gigantic person with speed and skill to boot.
3Logo of the Arizona Coyotes-Trend #2: franchise defensemen are the most valuable "type" of player in a draft. GMs salivate over getting their 23-minute per night guy, especially when they can play a 2-way game. It is becoming increasingly difficult to acquire these guys as UFAs or in a trade - Hedman, Doughty, Josi, Ekblad, etc. and you can imagine Makar, Seider, etc. never hitting free agency either. Got to draft them. Could still see Cooley especially for AZ, but I expect Jiricek and Nemec to not make it out the Top-5
4Logo of the Seattle Kraken-Nemec and Jiricek are neck and neck -- I fully expect Seattle to take their favorite and get their first true cornerstone defensive prospect. They'll hope to have the choice between Jiricek and Nemec, but will gladly take either.
5Logo of the Philadelphia Flyers-I think Philly, like Seattle, will happily take whichever defenseman falls to them. Unfortunately for them here, neither falls, but they get a great prospect in Cooley.
6Logo of the Columbus Blue JacketsLogo of the Chicago BlackhawksBig surprise #1! Korchinski has a lot of his game to shape out, most noticeably on the defensive end, but the top-pair, 23-minute defenseman potential is outstanding here. Honestly, I see Philly thinking twice even with Cooley on the board given Korchinski and Gauthier are right there as well. One of my trends is small players fall below mocks ~constantly~ in the draft. I don't think it's likely, but I really believe Cooley may be available at 6 despite how skilled and creative he is. KK is a smooth creator and tilts the ice for his team. Watch him skate -- he is incredibly fluid, has good hands, and size to boot. Teams will think with some coaching he is an all star to be -- whether they are right, we shall see!
7Logo of the Ottawa Senators-Gauthier may not be here. Columbus (or others even higher) may snag him, but I think Columbus is just not deep enough in their defensive prospects to let a player like Korchinski (or Mintyukov or even Bichsel if they prefer) go. Ottawa will be thrilled a player of their "big with skill" style will still be around.
8Logo of the Detroit Red Wings-As a Red Wings fan, I love this. I could actually see Kasper going higher, especially to Ottawa. I think they consider this heavily. Marco Kasper has been my guy for months, and I've been ecstatic to see him move from the 20s into the top 10 or 12 conversation. He has improved so much this year and will continue developing at an outstanding Rogle program. He is showing clear offensive upside -- the stereotype of a 3rd line grinder is just plain outdated at this point. He plays a 200 foot game with grit and a lot more speed and zone entry / exit capability than people give him credit for. He bullied Tomas Hertl, a bonafide 2C, in a puck battle in the WCs. This kid is the real deal and there's a reason 30 teams have interviewed him.
9Logo of the Buffalo Sabres-This is where the door bursts wide open. I think Yurov or Miroshnichenko are the picks this time last year, but have fallen for clear (and unfortunate) reasons. This could be Savoie or Kemell, but I think both have issues and Nazar's skill helps.
10Logo of the Anaheim Ducks-The Ducks are happy to add another fluid skating blue liner alongside Drysdale. They probably don't play together in the end given similarities, but draft for skill over current need, and even if both pan out like expected (Drysdale obviously further along), the Ducks' top-2 D lines have major strength.
11Logo of the San Jose Sharks-Another big surprise! The Sharks will be crushed that neither KK or Mintyukov are here, but Bichsel will go higher than expected given his size and ability to be an anchor at the back end. His offensive upside is less certain, but don't forget how the SHL depresses young defensive scoring generally. Especially on a team like Leksands that had some decent, older D in front of him. He could pop off next year with consistent Top-4 minutes.
12Logo of the Columbus Blue Jackets-The slide stops! Jarmo just can't let Savoie go. I am also probably lower on Savoie than most, but he is in a league where he can take advantage of time and space that is already there, vs. working in tight spaces to create it himself. Not that he is like Kasper, but this is where MK has proven himself, and Savoie struggled a bit against tougher competition (like top prospects game) in creating his own space. Think Lucas Raymond also -- lower point totals in draft year, but worked fantastically well in tight spaces and created his own room to maneuver, think, distract defensemen from teammates, etc., that conveyed to the NHL very well. I think in the NHL, Savoie's primary skillset gets zapped up pretty hard, and if he isn't on a PP1 unit, his point totals won't go close to what people expect. Unfortunately for him, I just see his game as less projectable and, despite the points, less proven.
13Logo of the New York Islanders-This one is hard. I have no idea how Russia will play into Yurov's status. Based on skill, he is a top-10 player. He may slide much further, but I think NYI takes the risk here given how dominant he could be someday, and trusts the visa situation will resolve itself once Yurov is ready to come over in a couple years.
14Logo of the Winnipeg Jets-This one is tricky, but again, I go with trying to get your anchor defensemen in the draft. Pickering has a shot here, and is higher upside probably, but just has too many question marks right now.
15Logo of the Vancouver Canucks-The slide stops! Kemell's status has definitely been hurt by a stagnant second half and no real popping performances. Then his stature and pace push him further down, but Vancouver would love to make teams look stupid.
16Logo of the Buffalo SabresLogo of the Vegas Golden KnightsTheme of slides falling -- look, Lekkerimaki is a fantastic offensive player, with a ripping shot. But his defensive qualities are weaker than most forwards in this top tier of players. I think the one dimensional aspect puts him a bit lower than folks expect
17Logo of the Nashville Predators-I think people have soured on Geekie a little much, although I guess having him at 17, I'm not helping his case a ton. Send him to whoever helped Alex Tuch improve his skating, and Geekie is a clear Top-10 pick. It's risky, but if he can make strides, he can go from a middle 6 center back to a top-line guy that folks earlier will wish they had drafted.
18Logo of the Dallas Stars-To that point, welcome to Gaucher, another big and solid center who may not have the upside to go Top-15, but is a well-rounded player that is probably being slept on a bit, with great size and some skill. He will be a strong defensive shut-down centerman if all else.
19Logo of the Los Angeles Kings-We have a run on centers! Kulich has been fantastic the back half of this year. I could see him going above the two centers I just drafted, and could see him sneaking into the top-15
20Logo of the Washington Capitals-Another slide stops! Washington just can't pass up the speed and skill Lambert shows. It's a risky pick, but with a team that may be entering a rebuild within the next 2-3 years, give him some time to hash it out. I personally would try to sign and loan him to the SHL to hash out his mental and defensive game a bit more, but that's probably not realistic.
21Logo of the Pittsburgh Penguins-Pitt takes the gamble on Pickering. He has great upside, similar to his teammate Korchinski, but is much less polished at present. A risky pick but the reward is certainly there, so it feels like a fit in the early-20s at a high value position.
22Logo of the Anaheim DucksLogo of the Boston BruinsBoy, after Cooley/Gauthier/Nazar, the USNTDP prospects are hard to choose between. Howard has been strong this year and crashes the net hard, so I have him just barely over McGroarty and Snuggerud
23Logo of the St. Louis Blues-Here comes Gleb! Despite defensive deficiencies, his offensive is too tantalizing to not go high. I do think this is a player with significant variance -- someone, like Vancouver, Buffalo, etc. with mid-teens picks, may fall in love with this kid. It just takes one team for a guy to climb above the rankings on draft day, a la Seider.
24Logo of the Minnesota Wild-Ostlund is a great creator. He benefitted from having Lekkerimaki and Ohgren on his J20 team, where they absolutely ran over every team, but we'll get a better sense next year in the SHL of where he stands. I think his game is the most projectable of the three.
25Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs-Mateychuck will be disappointed to fall this far. But there just aren't players with his skillset, frame, and production combo in the CHL that pan into Top-2 defenders. He is more of a PP specialist and OK middle pairing D in the pros, which may not be worth a 1st round pick to some. It's hard not to get tantalized by his Moose Jaw production, but I think if Denton played in the SHL this past year, we wouldn't even be talking about him in the first round. Fire away with your reactions / hatred for my opinion here :)
26Logo of the Montreal CanadiensLogo of the Calgary FlamesAgain, all these 2nd-tier USNTDP guys are fantastic and pretty projectible. It's another safe-ish pick for Montreal
27Logo of the Arizona CoyotesLogo of the Carolina HurricanesThe Coyotes are thrilled with Jiricek and now add some more prospect capacity at forward; they could go a few different ways here (maybe take the Miroshnichenko swing) but I think McGroarty is a high-likelihood NHL player
28Logo of the Buffalo SabresLogo of the Florida PanthersWhat a 1st round for Buffalo. I think people are sleeping on how skilled and well-rounded this kid is. Buffalo would love some of the D who have already gone, but I expect a run on them, and a couple of 2nd round projected D sneak into the first.
29Logo of the Edmonton Oilers-Edmonton takes the risk. Ivan is a top-5, maybe top-3 player in this draft at full strength. The hockey world will hope for a full recovery first and foremost, but this kid is legit and I hope he can come back stronger than ever and have the career he showed he was capable of a year or two ago.
30Logo of the Winnipeg JetsLogo of the New York RangersThis guy is a pure scorer. We'll see how he does without his fantastic linemates, but WPG likes the offensive upside after going D earlier.
31Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning-Tampa takes the swing on the giant D-man; he'll need to add pace, but as an anchor PK and middle/back pair D, I think he's a bit of a reach but an unsurprising pick.
32Logo of the Arizona CoyotesLogo of the Colorado AvalancheI think Bystedt may sneak in with AZ's last pick as a player who did it all in the Swedish J20 and held his own for a kind of crappy SHL team when called up. Looks like an NHL player, which for better or worse, still matters in scouting. By this point in the draft, there's obviously a million ways teams could go, though.
Jun. 15, 2022 at 11:34 a.m.
#1
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Super interesting and in-depth analysis of each pick. I like Savoie and Kemell higher than where you have them just because of how explosive and flashy they both can be. I think you're spot on with Jiricek but where I disagree is the difference between him and Nemec. I think both guys are comparable defensively but Jiricek's proven offensive upside puts him head and shoulders above Nemec who in my opinion has been inconsistent on offense at best. Great mock though.
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Jun. 15, 2022 at 12:11 p.m.
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I like this take!

The one thing I would change is this. There is a chance that Columbus goes off the board, but I don't think it will be Korchinski. Instead it will be Mintyukov. Columbus has this trend of picking non-Canadian players. But that's just my opinion. Cooley also doesn't fall past Arizona. Size may an issue, but its been proven in years past that it doesn't matter anymore.
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Jun. 15, 2022 at 12:13 p.m.
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Sharks pick 15 other guys before Bichsel
Jun. 15, 2022 at 12:16 p.m.
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"Ivan is a top-5, maybe top-3 player in this draft at full strength."

No, he isn't. He started falling before his cancer diagnosis, he should be in the 18-25 range when healthy.
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Jun. 15, 2022 at 12:41 p.m.
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Wow you put a lot of hard work and effort into this and I really appreciate that. I've been casually reading up on some prospects but you gave a nice little overview of each one here and I felt I learned quite a bit from reading it. Of course as a Sabres fan, I'm pumped for the draft and excited to see who we snag with the 3 firsts. I'm really hoping we end up with Chelsey, whether that's at 16th or 28th overall. He would be the perfect compliment to Power long term. Nazar is the perfect pick for Buffalo at #9 unless somehow an unexpected top draftee falls there. Adams has done some solid drafting and I like how he isn't afraid to move up to snag the guy he really wants (ex: Peterka).

Once again, thanks for putting this together.
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Jun. 15, 2022 at 1:39 p.m.
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Quoting: Preston_Mattesich
Super interesting and in-depth analysis of each pick. I like Savoie and Kemell higher than where you have them just because of how explosive and flashy they both can be. I think you're spot on with Jiricek but where I disagree is the difference between him and Nemec. I think both guys are comparable defensively but Jiricek's proven offensive upside puts him head and shoulders above Nemec who in my opinion has been inconsistent on offense at best. Great mock though.


My take historically as been the same as yours -- Jiricek > Nemec by a decent gap. Maybe I've softened up a little too much the past few weeks on Nemec! But yeah, if I'm personally the GM I take DJ first for sure.
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Jun. 15, 2022 at 1:41 p.m.
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Quoting: christianyog
I like this take!

The one thing I would change is this. There is a chance that Columbus goes off the board, but I don't think it will be Korchinski. Instead it will be Mintyukov. Columbus has this trend of picking non-Canadian players. But that's just my opinion. Cooley also doesn't fall past Arizona. Size may an issue, but its been proven in years past that it doesn't matter anymore.


I've gone back and forth on who the #3 defensemen in the draft is. I feel pretty strongly Korchinski and Mintyukov are 3 and 4 in some order, and totally could see you being right. I actually had Mintyukov to Columbus a couple weeks ago and only recently flipped watching some more of KK, but yeah this will be interesting to see play out!
Jun. 15, 2022 at 1:48 p.m.
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Quoting: TZ11
"Ivan is a top-5, maybe top-3 player in this draft at full strength."

No, he isn't. He started falling before his cancer diagnosis, he should be in the 18-25 range when healthy.


This is a tricky one. I had heard from a friend in the industry he starting having health issues well in advance, then ultimately the diagnosis, and unclear what was causing his pre-diagnosis drop. I'm sure GMs have / are vetting what exactly was going on there, but I just don't know enough. So absolutely, my statement is giving him a very sizeable benefit of doubt on why he declined. Could be wrong and may be non-illness related play drop in which case you're right. Glad I'm not the GM who has to evaluate this situation, it sucks all around and I'd hate to be making a decision on whether a kid got worse or if a kid was genuinely sick, it sucks.
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Jun. 15, 2022 at 1:54 p.m.
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Quoting: Skyraider112
Wow you put a lot of hard work and effort into this and I really appreciate that. I've been casually reading up on some prospects but you gave a nice little overview of each one here and I felt I learned quite a bit from reading it. Of course as a Sabres fan, I'm pumped for the draft and excited to see who we snag with the 3 firsts. I'm really hoping we end up with Chelsey, whether that's at 16th or 28th overall. He would be the perfect compliment to Power long term. Nazar is the perfect pick for Buffalo at #9 unless somehow an unexpected top draftee falls there. Adams has done some solid drafting and I like how he isn't afraid to move up to snag the guy he really wants (ex: Peterka).

Once again, thanks for putting this together.


I LOVED Peterka in 2020. Didn't think he'd last until the 2nd round and was pretty upset when the wings passed on him (although Wallinder is looking pretty good). The other guy I liked was Noel Gunler, but the jury still feels out much more so for him...

I like Nazar a lot. Although honestly I personally have a lot of trouble evaluating the USNTDP kids. I struggle to project them much moreso than for kids in the Euro leagues that I watch more regularly. The weirdness of playing USHL and college teams makes me kind of dizzy, too. Good thing I'm not an actual scout lol.
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Jun. 15, 2022 at 2:36 p.m.
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Quoting: mmhawk23
This is a tricky one. I had heard from a friend in the industry he starting having health issues well in advance, then ultimately the diagnosis, and unclear what was causing his pre-diagnosis drop. I'm sure GMs have / are vetting what exactly was going on there, but I just don't know enough. So absolutely, my statement is giving him a very sizeable benefit of doubt on why he declined. Could be wrong and may be non-illness related play drop in which case you're right. Glad I'm not the GM who has to evaluate this situation, it sucks all around and I'd hate to be making a decision on whether a kid got worse or if a kid was genuinely sick, it sucks.


I would add something else to that.

Miroshnichenko is coming from the same system as Trikozov. It's farm system of KHL's franchise Avantgard Omsk. It's should be just an average system, but they are doing really well as of lately. From the same system are coming NJD's 2019 pick Gritsyuk (part of Russian Olympics team, rookie of the year in KHL) and CBJ's Chinakhov from 2020 draft. They are also champions in U-17. Next big name from that team will be LHD Gulyayev in 2023 draft, but that's another story.

Comparing Miroshnichenko and Trikozov to Chinakhov I would say both are capable to outperform Chinakhov. I am high on Trikozov from what I've seen in MHL's playoffs, but healthy Miroshnichenko has even higher upside (if stats holds any value). Miroshnichenko was decent in VHL, where Trikozov wasn't quite ready yet.
Jun. 15, 2022 at 2:50 p.m.
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Very well put together. I think if CBJ wants Savoie, they'll take him at 6 and if they get KK is could be at 12 in maybe even later. Many don't project him to go so high although he definitely should. If McGroarty is available at 25 you'd have to think the Leafs take him. They interviewed him and he fits the bill all too well: big bodied, skilled shooter who has a clear flaw in his game that the Leafs may bank on to get him lower. His skating needs some work but the Leafs haven't shied away from that in the past. Took a chance on the undrafted Gogolev who needed work on his skating. I think he would be perfect for the Leafs
Jun. 15, 2022 at 3:16 p.m.
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cant see cbj taking Korchinski before Gauthier
Jun. 15, 2022 at 4:12 p.m.
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Quoting: LeafsDude
Very well put together. I think if CBJ wants Savoie, they'll take him at 6 and if they get KK is could be at 12 in maybe even later. Many don't project him to go so high although he definitely should. If McGroarty is available at 25 you'd have to think the Leafs take him. They interviewed him and he fits the bill all too well: big bodied, skilled shooter who has a clear flaw in his game that the Leafs may bank on to get him lower. His skating needs some work but the Leafs haven't shied away from that in the past. Took a chance on the undrafted Gogolev who needed work on his skating. I think he would be perfect for the Leafs


Hadn't thought about McGroarty to the Leafs but that makes total sense. After top ~12-14 picks I get a lot less sure just because I've seen less tape, and it's more of a teams go for their guy anyway like your Leafs-RM example.

I think CBJ would be leaping for joy for KK at 12. Good for them if they can do it. I just absolutely love the player, and think his defensive flaws are more addressable than some other Dmen, and that's what causes guys to rise vs. mock drafts. For his defensive flaws -- I think he reads the play well, but sometimes makes too aggressive a move on that read and gets beat. But I actually think he does read well which makes it a lot easier to improve decision-making over time than if you just stink at reading plays entirely. Kind of how I view Simon Edvinsson's progression from last year to this year, just a lesser version. Then offensively and in transition, breaking out, collecting dump-ins and turning them into neutral & offensive zone possessions, man he is good.
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Jun. 15, 2022 at 6:32 p.m.
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Quoting: Skyraider112
Wow you put a lot of hard work and effort into this and I really appreciate that. I've been casually reading up on some prospects but you gave a nice little overview of each one here and I felt I learned quite a bit from reading it. Of course as a Sabres fan, I'm pumped for the draft and excited to see who we snag with the 3 firsts. I'm really hoping we end up with Chelsey, whether that's at 16th or 28th overall. He would be the perfect compliment to Power long term. Nazar is the perfect pick for Buffalo at #9 unless somehow an unexpected top draftee falls there. Adams has done some solid drafting and I like how he isn't afraid to move up to snag the guy he really wants (ex: Peterka).

Once again, thanks for putting this together.


Yea, Chelsey would be perfect for Buffalo. I have him going there in my mock draft.
 
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