1 | | - | | Boy has this gotten tighter lately. Slaf has gotten so much better and can be a dominant scorer, but he still doesn't quite clip the 2-way game of Wright. But this is turning more into a safety pick than a confident pick. |
2 | | - | | Trend #1 is mocks tend not to take player's improvement over their draft year into account enough. We'll see this later on, but for Slaf, everyone luckily has noticed. Dominant against men the past few months and a gigantic person with speed and skill to boot. |
3 | | - | | Trend #2: franchise defensemen are the most valuable "type" of player in a draft. GMs salivate over getting their 23-minute per night guy, especially when they can play a 2-way game. It is becoming increasingly difficult to acquire these guys as UFAs or in a trade - Hedman, Doughty, Josi, Ekblad, etc. and you can imagine Makar, Seider, etc. never hitting free agency either. Got to draft them. Could still see Cooley especially for AZ, but I expect Jiricek and Nemec to not make it out the Top-5 |
4 | | - | | Nemec and Jiricek are neck and neck -- I fully expect Seattle to take their favorite and get their first true cornerstone defensive prospect. They'll hope to have the choice between Jiricek and Nemec, but will gladly take either. |
5 | | - | | I think Philly, like Seattle, will happily take whichever defenseman falls to them. Unfortunately for them here, neither falls, but they get a great prospect in Cooley. |
6 | | | | Big surprise #1! Korchinski has a lot of his game to shape out, most noticeably on the defensive end, but the top-pair, 23-minute defenseman potential is outstanding here. Honestly, I see Philly thinking twice even with Cooley on the board given Korchinski and Gauthier are right there as well. One of my trends is small players fall below mocks ~constantly~ in the draft. I don't think it's likely, but I really believe Cooley may be available at 6 despite how skilled and creative he is. KK is a smooth creator and tilts the ice for his team. Watch him skate -- he is incredibly fluid, has good hands, and size to boot. Teams will think with some coaching he is an all star to be -- whether they are right, we shall see! |
7 | | - | | Gauthier may not be here. Columbus (or others even higher) may snag him, but I think Columbus is just not deep enough in their defensive prospects to let a player like Korchinski (or Mintyukov or even Bichsel if they prefer) go. Ottawa will be thrilled a player of their "big with skill" style will still be around. |
8 | | - | | As a Red Wings fan, I love this. I could actually see Kasper going higher, especially to Ottawa. I think they consider this heavily. Marco Kasper has been my guy for months, and I've been ecstatic to see him move from the 20s into the top 10 or 12 conversation. He has improved so much this year and will continue developing at an outstanding Rogle program. He is showing clear offensive upside -- the stereotype of a 3rd line grinder is just plain outdated at this point. He plays a 200 foot game with grit and a lot more speed and zone entry / exit capability than people give him credit for. He bullied Tomas Hertl, a bonafide 2C, in a puck battle in the WCs. This kid is the real deal and there's a reason 30 teams have interviewed him. |
9 | | - | | This is where the door bursts wide open. I think Yurov or Miroshnichenko are the picks this time last year, but have fallen for clear (and unfortunate) reasons. This could be Savoie or Kemell, but I think both have issues and Nazar's skill helps. |
10 | | - | | The Ducks are happy to add another fluid skating blue liner alongside Drysdale. They probably don't play together in the end given similarities, but draft for skill over current need, and even if both pan out like expected (Drysdale obviously further along), the Ducks' top-2 D lines have major strength. |
11 | | - | | Another big surprise! The Sharks will be crushed that neither KK or Mintyukov are here, but Bichsel will go higher than expected given his size and ability to be an anchor at the back end. His offensive upside is less certain, but don't forget how the SHL depresses young defensive scoring generally. Especially on a team like Leksands that had some decent, older D in front of him. He could pop off next year with consistent Top-4 minutes. |
12 | | - | | The slide stops! Jarmo just can't let Savoie go. I am also probably lower on Savoie than most, but he is in a league where he can take advantage of time and space that is already there, vs. working in tight spaces to create it himself. Not that he is like Kasper, but this is where MK has proven himself, and Savoie struggled a bit against tougher competition (like top prospects game) in creating his own space. Think Lucas Raymond also -- lower point totals in draft year, but worked fantastically well in tight spaces and created his own room to maneuver, think, distract defensemen from teammates, etc., that conveyed to the NHL very well. I think in the NHL, Savoie's primary skillset gets zapped up pretty hard, and if he isn't on a PP1 unit, his point totals won't go close to what people expect. Unfortunately for him, I just see his game as less projectable and, despite the points, less proven. |
13 | | - | | This one is hard. I have no idea how Russia will play into Yurov's status. Based on skill, he is a top-10 player. He may slide much further, but I think NYI takes the risk here given how dominant he could be someday, and trusts the visa situation will resolve itself once Yurov is ready to come over in a couple years. |
14 | | - | | This one is tricky, but again, I go with trying to get your anchor defensemen in the draft. Pickering has a shot here, and is higher upside probably, but just has too many question marks right now. |
15 | | - | | The slide stops! Kemell's status has definitely been hurt by a stagnant second half and no real popping performances. Then his stature and pace push him further down, but Vancouver would love to make teams look stupid. |
16 | | | | Theme of slides falling -- look, Lekkerimaki is a fantastic offensive player, with a ripping shot. But his defensive qualities are weaker than most forwards in this top tier of players. I think the one dimensional aspect puts him a bit lower than folks expect |
17 | | - | | I think people have soured on Geekie a little much, although I guess having him at 17, I'm not helping his case a ton. Send him to whoever helped Alex Tuch improve his skating, and Geekie is a clear Top-10 pick. It's risky, but if he can make strides, he can go from a middle 6 center back to a top-line guy that folks earlier will wish they had drafted. |
18 | | - | | To that point, welcome to Gaucher, another big and solid center who may not have the upside to go Top-15, but is a well-rounded player that is probably being slept on a bit, with great size and some skill. He will be a strong defensive shut-down centerman if all else. |
19 | | - | | We have a run on centers! Kulich has been fantastic the back half of this year. I could see him going above the two centers I just drafted, and could see him sneaking into the top-15 |
20 | | - | | Another slide stops! Washington just can't pass up the speed and skill Lambert shows. It's a risky pick, but with a team that may be entering a rebuild within the next 2-3 years, give him some time to hash it out. I personally would try to sign and loan him to the SHL to hash out his mental and defensive game a bit more, but that's probably not realistic. |
21 | | - | | Pitt takes the gamble on Pickering. He has great upside, similar to his teammate Korchinski, but is much less polished at present. A risky pick but the reward is certainly there, so it feels like a fit in the early-20s at a high value position. |
22 | | | | Boy, after Cooley/Gauthier/Nazar, the USNTDP prospects are hard to choose between. Howard has been strong this year and crashes the net hard, so I have him just barely over McGroarty and Snuggerud |
23 | | - | | Here comes Gleb! Despite defensive deficiencies, his offensive is too tantalizing to not go high. I do think this is a player with significant variance -- someone, like Vancouver, Buffalo, etc. with mid-teens picks, may fall in love with this kid. It just takes one team for a guy to climb above the rankings on draft day, a la Seider. |
24 | | - | | Ostlund is a great creator. He benefitted from having Lekkerimaki and Ohgren on his J20 team, where they absolutely ran over every team, but we'll get a better sense next year in the SHL of where he stands. I think his game is the most projectable of the three. |
25 | | - | | Mateychuck will be disappointed to fall this far. But there just aren't players with his skillset, frame, and production combo in the CHL that pan into Top-2 defenders. He is more of a PP specialist and OK middle pairing D in the pros, which may not be worth a 1st round pick to some. It's hard not to get tantalized by his Moose Jaw production, but I think if Denton played in the SHL this past year, we wouldn't even be talking about him in the first round. Fire away with your reactions / hatred for my opinion here :) |
26 | | | | Again, all these 2nd-tier USNTDP guys are fantastic and pretty projectible. It's another safe-ish pick for Montreal |
27 | | | | The Coyotes are thrilled with Jiricek and now add some more prospect capacity at forward; they could go a few different ways here (maybe take the Miroshnichenko swing) but I think McGroarty is a high-likelihood NHL player |
28 | | | | What a 1st round for Buffalo. I think people are sleeping on how skilled and well-rounded this kid is. Buffalo would love some of the D who have already gone, but I expect a run on them, and a couple of 2nd round projected D sneak into the first. |
29 | | - | | Edmonton takes the risk. Ivan is a top-5, maybe top-3 player in this draft at full strength. The hockey world will hope for a full recovery first and foremost, but this kid is legit and I hope he can come back stronger than ever and have the career he showed he was capable of a year or two ago. |
30 | | | | This guy is a pure scorer. We'll see how he does without his fantastic linemates, but WPG likes the offensive upside after going D earlier. |
31 | | - | | Tampa takes the swing on the giant D-man; he'll need to add pace, but as an anchor PK and middle/back pair D, I think he's a bit of a reach but an unsurprising pick. |
32 | | | | I think Bystedt may sneak in with AZ's last pick as a player who did it all in the Swedish J20 and held his own for a kind of crappy SHL team when called up. Looks like an NHL player, which for better or worse, still matters in scouting. By this point in the draft, there's obviously a million ways teams could go, though. |