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Why doesn't huge scoring in junior or European leagues always translate to NHL success?

May 8, 2017 at 10:32 a.m.
#1
Reticulous
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I was hoping some of you could enlighten me on the reason some players who put up huge numbers in Juniors or European leagues fail to be drafted in the first or even second rounds. It seems like the OHL is rated as a better developmental league than the QMJHL or the WHL because I've noticed that more players seem to make the NHL out of the OHL than the other two although I may be wrong about that. But then there are players like David Pastrnak who are drafted in the late first round but didn't really put up huge numbers on their junior team. I realize the process of talent evaluation is an art more than it is a science but I am curious to know what NHL teams look for and how they go about processing the scouting information they compile. As an example I'm a Blackhawks fan and I'm trying to figure out if DeBrincat has a realistic possibility of translating his Junior league success into NHL success even though the last thing the Blackhawks need right now is another under-sized offensively skilled forward. Having watched DeBrincat's highlight videos it seems clear to me that he takes shots that would beat NHL caliber goal tending, but even if that is true will he be able to be elusive enough and adjust to the higher pace and greater defensive requirements of the NHL game? Any thoughts on this topic would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.
May 8, 2017 at 1:57 p.m.
#2
Below Market Value
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It's important to recognize the difference in quality between the NA leagues and the European leagues. Scoring is much lower in Europe, a lot of which can be attributed to the larger ice. Pastrnak's numbers during his draft year were when he played in Allsvenskan, which is the NA equivalent to the AHL, not juniors. So he put up 24 points in 36 games as an 18-19 year old in basically the European AHL. That's pretty impressive relative to the numbers that are usually put up by the talent in Europe. With regards to DeBrincat, you basically nailed the reason high scoring doesn't always translate to NHL success: size. Major junior in Canada is very offense-heavy, so it's not uncommon to see high point totals. For DeBrincat, it's top six or bust. His play style is basically only useful for a top six scorer, so NHL teams won't have any use for him in their bottom six. Plus, he is in his draft+1 year, so he has an age advantage against most of the OHL.
May 8, 2017 at 2:18 p.m.
#3
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Reticulous
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Quoting: DoctorBreakfast
It's important to recognize the difference in quality between the NA leagues and the European leagues. Scoring is much lower in Europe, a lot of which can be attributed to the larger ice. Pastrnak's numbers during his draft year were when he played in Allsvenskan, which is the NA equivalent to the AHL, not juniors. So he put up 24 points in 36 games as an 18-19 year old in basically the European AHL. That's pretty impressive relative to the numbers that are usually put up by the talent in Europe. With regards to DeBrincat, you basically nailed the reason high scoring doesn't always translate to NHL success: size. Major junior in Canada is very offense-heavy, so it's not uncommon to see high point totals. For DeBrincat, it's top six or bust. His play style is basically only useful for a top six scorer, so NHL teams won't have any use for him in their bottom six. Plus, he is in his draft+1 year, so he has an age advantage against most of the OHL.


That's the best assessment of the European leagues I've seen so far in terms of how it relates to the evaluation of draft prospects. And I also had the top-six or bust for DeBrincat idea. I mean where would Alex fit on the Hawks roster? I could see him on the third line bolstering Kero and Hartman, but would that work? The top two lines would most likely not work for him because he wont be aligned with Kane and Panarin, so that leaves the first line with Toews and Schmaltz? and maybe Panik if he is resigned, which in my mind is a big if. Considering Debrincat is going to be an offensive specialist if he ever makes an NHL roster how do the Blackhawks integrate him onto their team? I have a hard time imagining that. He would have to play with Toews but because Toews has become the net-front presence on that line and I don't think DeBrincat can successfully play board battles at an NHL level, the likely hood of success for DeBrincat diminishes. Hopefully I'm wrong, because that kid deserves a shot in the NHL.
May 8, 2017 at 11:41 p.m.
#4
LongtimeLeafsufferer
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These differences in whether a player in a great junior/European or NHL has been going on for decades. It's hard to see watching on television but the speed is greater in the NHL and therefore decision making at a high speed is markedly different.
It' more than size and strength but high speed decision making IMO. And when playing in lower levels of hockey, a good/great player can exploit the "not so good" players. In the NHL, all the players are NHL good and can't be exploited so easily.
 
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