leafs decline

Cannot see Verbeek making this deal at all — he has said he wants to get bigger and Girard is not that plus I can’t see a point currently making a player for player trade like this

Girard’s value is much higher than Gibson.

Gibson is signed for $6.4M until he’s 33. Girard is signed for $5M until he’s 28.

Gibson has had a negative goals saved above expected for each of the last 3 years. Girard has been a top 4 defenseman playing 21+ minutes a night for the last 3 years.

Doesn’t make much sense for the Avs to do this trade when you could probably get Kuemper/Husso/Campbell/etc on the market for cheaper than Gibson AND keep your 24 yr old top 4 defenseman.

i dont buy too much into the advanced stats. i think gibby will rebound with the avs. also goalies don't tend to age as fast as skaters so 33 doesn't really bother me. i think it's pretty close to fair especially considering girards injuries this season.


not sold on kuemper/husso/campbell. fluery isn't a bad option.

Not from Anaheim's point of view.

Alright, then here are some not advanced stats: Gibson’s save % was .904, .903, .904 over the last 3 years. League average was .907, .908, and .910 over that same period.

Gibson has been a below average goalie for the past 3 years by any metric you look at. He’s talented and maybe he’ll bounce back, but right now you don’t give up a young top 4 defenseman just for the hope that an expensive, below average goalie bounces back.

yea the ducks also sucked during that time. i think hes just the victim of a bad team and is probably burnt out. girard's advanced stats and health havent been great either.

Girard’s health? He’s played 388 games since he entered the league 4.5 years ago. Girard has literally missed games 3x in his career: once for COVID protocol, once for a leg tweak, and now when he broke his sternum. Before these playoffs, he had missed like 15 games in his career. This narrative doesn’t make sense.

There are plenty of advanced stats that will show that the shot quality Gibson has faced over the past 3 years aren’t particularly different than the shots he faced at his peak. The average save % across the league also includes bad teams. He’s a very talented player but the results don’t fit the reputation.

May 22, 2022 Broken sternum, remainder of the playoffs.
Apr 09, 2022 Missed 13 games (lower body injury).
Oct 29, 2021 Missed 2 games (upper body injury).
May 12, 2021 Missed 6 games (lower body injury).
Feb 20, 2021 Missed 2 games (covid-19).
Apr 26, 2019 Missed the last 3 playoff games (upper body injury).
Apr 20, 2018 Missed the last 3 playoff games (upper body injury).

i think girards health is a valid concern but i dont think it's that much of a knock.

if gibsons results fit his reputation he'd cost a hell of a lot more than girard.

Totally forgot about those little playoff blips before COVID. Point taken there. Nevertheless, Girard has missed very few games since he entered the league and had an iron man streak for a while. The narrative about Girard being injury prone is purely because he’s small.

I’ve never found a good place for man games lost data, but I would be willing to guess that Girard is on the left side of the distribution when compared to other players who play 20+ minutes a night.

I’ll be interested to see how the Gibson gamble works for whichever team does it. I’d just be much more willing to gamble on a player that doesn’t require a premium asset to acquire.