28th overall is stretching it to get full value out of Marino but I’d probably accept.

The pens should be given an award for finessing everyone (including myself) into believing Marino is far better than he actually is. None of the public advanced stats models rate him as even remotely good. Idk how they did it, but im genuinely impressed.

All that to say, just keep the first and bryson.

In 19-20 and 20-21, every advanced stat model I've seen supported that he was good? Had an estimated war value of over 6 million, EV defense% of 71, and above average corsi percentages, also he did have a great postseason. Marino's whole career so far has been a bit of a rollercoaster, he's had some stretched of pretty poor play, and some of great. Trading for him is definitely betting more on the good, and betting that he could thrive in Buffalo, and betting on what he can become on a somewhat reasonable contract with term

I didn't look into his corsi so there may be something there but Hockeyviz does a rolling XGF to estimate isolated impact and his hasn't been good the last two years. To your point you're betting on potential you think can be tapped because hes shown it before so I can see the interest but I feel like the team acquiring him and his contract are assuming enough risk that they shouldn't need to pay a premium to acquire him. For every reason there is to think he can be good there are just as many to think the contract might be a problem.

Yeah XGF, he hasn't been great offensively the last 2, but defensively he's still been good, especially in 20-21