I think the real suggestion here would be glasses for you. I don’t see what you see at all. I think Dumba is definitely our second best defenseman behind Brodin. I wouldn’t give a second thought to re-signing him at $5.5M AAV.

Oh, and I took the survey you keep referencing. I said trade Dumba for both questions. The first one was because that opens cap space to re-sign Fiala. The second is because if the Wild trade Fiala they probably have no shot at the Cup and might as well retool while they can. But keep using me as an example against myself

Nowhere did the questions say: “hey, should we dump Dumba for a middling player that will miss 20+ games and a 2nd round pick?”

I don’t think I’m GM of the Wild. But I do find it extremely amusing that Guerin has indicated that he doesn’t agree with your opinion based on everything he has said. And truly, his opinion is all that really matter in this situation.

I had LASIK a few years ago, my eyes have never been better. You might want to consider it. Dumba isn’t close to our 2nd best Dman. I’d say He’s our 4th best. Spurgeon, Brodin, Middleton. You can cherry pick advanced stats and I could do the same (see E+\-, xGF for example). That would be a horrendous deal, I highly doubt BG does that.

That’s a convenient out for you, not sure I believe those were your answers, sorry but your track record here as a blind Dumba lover doesn’t exactly give me any trust.

A middling player? He’s still only 23 and has potential. Unlike Dumba, who’s a finished “meh” product. We have a replacement player for Dumba on the roster already, we don’t have 2 top 6 C’s.

Well that’s good, we’re making progress with your ego. Woohoo! What has BG said that’s against what I’ve said? He tried to salvage any trade value? I’m okay with that. GMs rarely trash players in the media. Russo has told the true story of how BG really feels about Dumba. He’s been trying to trade Dumba for over 2 years. If you love a player that much, you’re not trying to trade the player, box.

Holy ****. Your opinion now means less than zero to me. Good day.

At least we’re on similar ground then, because yours means less than zero to me thinking Dumba is our 2nd best D 😂🤣😂.

You’ve got Middleton above Dumba. At least mine can form a justifiable defense of Dumba being above Spurgeon. There is no defense for Middleton above Dumba. Just a horrible take.

That’d be an opinion bud. Are those not allowed in your world? I’ve got a pretty good hockey pedigree playing and knowing junior scouts / coaches. I’m perfectly happy ignoring your takes. Which you’re allowed to have.

That was just in the playoffs. Let's expand the sample size to the entire regular season. He was 15th on the team for players with 200+ minutes (so out of 23) at 52.07%. That's from 1015 minutes of ice time at 5 on 5 which is much better for evaluation than 102 minutes.



Again, playoffs. In the regular season, he was 18th of 23 at 1.01 P/60



Together, their GF% was 48.08%. Dumba with any other player had a GF% of 50%. Brodin with any other partner had a GF% of 60%. Dumba was a boat anchor weighing Brodin down this year. We can go into a lot more categories that demonstrate this. The fact is, the only partner Brodin had who was arguably as bad or worse was Goligoski (and they only played 60 minutes together).

Don't get me wrong, I don't want to trade for Mittelstadt. At the same time though, I don't think we should be painting Dumba as this amazing player who gets hate for zero reason. His play has definitely justified a lot of it. Let's look at some numbers for this season with his rank on the team (min 200 minutes at 5 on 5):

Stat % Rank (of 23) D Rank (of 8)
CF% 49.6% 14 5
FF% 49.22% 17 6
GF% 48.81% 19 8
xGF% 52.07% 15 5
SCF% 50.52% 16 5
HDCF% 52.31% 12 5
HDGF% 50% T-16 T-7

So...yeah, not great. The closest he came to cracking the top half of the team was on HDCF% and he was still 12th. When you only look at defensemen, he was in the bottom half for everything. He ranked lowest on the team in GF% and was tied at the bottom with Jordie Benn in HDGF%. These are also some pretty basic metrics at this point. It's not like I'm reaching and cherry picking obscure stats to justify an opinion. From what I've seen, it takes some reaching to find some non-subjective ways of justifying his value over the course of this last season.


**Note: I picked 200 minutes since that seemed to be the minimum to knock out guys who played less than a quarter of the season with us. This knocked out Deslaurier (20 games), Pitlick (20), Addison (15), Rau (5), Shaw (3), Beckman (3), Mermis (2), Rossi (2), Chaffee (2), Lizotte (1), and Cramarossa (1).

Edit - the formatting for the stats was a lot clearer the way I typed it out. They were aligned into columns and had enough space to clearly read. If anyone has an issue, let me know and I can try to figure out a better method.

Just came here to say, this forward group on the roster is horrendous.

My numbers are regular season at even strength amongst dmen on the team with at least 200 minutes. Pretty sure my 1100 minutes trump your 1000 minutes.

Ok, I still have a couple points.

First, there's a reason almost every bit of analysis you see people doing for hockey is 5 on 5 vs even strength. The game is vastly different at 4 on 4 or 3 on 3. The game is also mainly played at 5 on 5 so this gives the best sample size for analyzing on an even playing field. If you start blending in other strength states, it muddies the waters. Adding 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 is less egregious than adding PP and PK, but it's still not good. The sample size may be slightly larger adding in extra strength states but it's not as clear and direct of an analysis.

Second, I still don't see where you're getting that 53% for them as a pair. Them individually overall? Sure, Brodin is at 53.9% and Dumba is at 53.57% using your even strength numbers. Together though (using Natural Stat Trick's line tool or defense pairing tool) you'll see they clock in at 50.72% as a pair. Individually at even strength, Dumba's GF% without Brodin is only 1.2% higher than Brodin's without Dumba, but at 5 on 5, Brodin's 60% without Dumba dwarf's Dumba's 50% away from Brodin.