Quoting: Alfie11
Calling that 4 1sts is a MASSIVE stretch when zero of those 3 prospects were picked in the 1st lol, and that was my point anyway, the Leafs can’t put together a package better than the 4 1sts that would be required to offer sheet Tkachuk (not to mention you’d still have to pay him probably 12mil on a 7 year deal for Calgary to not match the offer sheet). project as stars, they just look like they could all be NHL contributors
Have a look at the prospect rankings in the post above.
Niemela is pretty high at 21 ahead of first rounders, Robertson is at 46 but he is kind of seeming like a bust. Knies isn't there, so I'll give you that even though he's probably ranked internally ahead of Robertson.
So it's like 3 firsts and a 3rd. Tkachuk is in the 2 1sts 2nd and 3rd bracket, if he was offered sheet it would be matched. I think both Knies and Robertson could end up being top 6 players but bot necessarily elite, Robertson might end up middle six likd you said. Niemela I expect to be a top 4 D at the least, I think the hope is that he would be a top 2 (might not be realistic but it's what the execs think of him that matters)
My point though is that no one is going to offer up 4 first for Tkachuk, they will offer something that has the value of the compensation package for a 9M player if he were to be offer sheeted, more or less. Generally speaking teams, won't be offering a package for a 100pt player (especially since he's only reached that mark once and the Flames would be moving him because of contract negotiations/cap related issues)
There might be a team out there that would offer 3 first equivalents (whether or not you think that Leafs package is at least that) with slightly more value than the Leafs though. It only takes one team.