Forums/Armchair-GM

Very aggressive wishful thinking

Created by: ceeque84
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 30, 2022
Published: Jun. 30, 2022
Team: 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
Team Explanation
Smith Retires leaving only Klefbom on LTIR to start the season
Holland grows a brain and gets Arizona to do the Keith trade & buyout thing.
San Jose has to retain half of Kane's salary & trades him to the Oilers
Leaves them with $15.2 Million cap space in 23/24 to resign Debrincat, Bouch, & Skinner, who are all RFAs WITHOUT arb rights.

Bridge Bouch, similar to what they did with Nurse 2 x $3.5million
DeBrincat 8 x $9mill
Skinner 3 x 900k- Takes him until Husso's deal is up
Leaves a little over a million left to sign another 4th liner/press box player to replace Shore
Things wouldnt get real scary until 25/26 when Drai, Kane, Crouse, Yamo, Bouch, & Ceci would all need new deals!!

Dont @ me Blackhawks fans, considering what Minny got for Fiala(yes I know the Cat is better), I think the trade is more than fair.
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
McLeod, Ryan2$975,000
Yamamoto, Kailer3$2,750,000
Perlini, Brendan1$800,000
Crouse, Lawson3$3,000,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
Kulak, Brett4$2,250,000
Marody, Cooper1$800,000
Husso, Ville4$3,750,000
Kane, Evander3$3,750,000
Gagner, Sam3$850,000
Deslauriers, Nicolas3$1,500,000
Rutta, Jan3$1,750,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Keith, Duncan1$1,000,000
Trades
1.
EDM
  1. DeBrincat, Alex
CHI
  1. Bourgault, Xavier
  2. Puljujärvi, Jesse [RFA Rights]
  3. 2022 1st round pick (EDM)
  4. 2024 1st round pick (EDM)
2.
EDM
  1. Crouse, Lawson [RFA Rights]
ARI
  1. Savoie, Carter
  2. Foegele, Warren
  3. Keith, Duncan
  4. 2023 1st round pick (EDM)
Additional Details:
Arizona does the Keith buyout thing
First for Crouse.
Keith and Foegle help get Arizona above the cap floor, Foegle also gives them a roster player.
Savoie for taking the cap dumps.
3.
EDM
  1. 2023 2nd round pick (PIT)
  2. 2023 4th round pick (PIT)
PIT
  1. Barrie, Tyson
Additional Details:
Letang doesnt return
4.
EDM
    Future Considerations
    ANA
    1. Kassian, Zack
    2. 2023 3rd round pick (EDM)
    5.
    EDM
    1. 2022 3rd round pick (WSH)
    WSH
    1. Ryan, Derek
    6.
    EDM
      SJS
      1. Samorukov, Dmitri
      2. 2022 3rd round pick (WSH)
      Additional Details:
      For the Kane trade situation.
      Buyouts
      • James Neal: $1,916,667
      • Andrej Sekera: $1,500,000
      Retained Salary Transactions
      • Milan Lucic: $750,000 (13%)
      DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
      2022
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      2023
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the PIT
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      2024
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      Logo of the EDM
      ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
      23$82,500,000$82,051,833$896,000$1,700,000$448,167
      Left WingCenterRight Wing
      Logo of the EDM
      Kane, Evander
      $3,750,000
      LW, RW
      NMC
      UFA - 4
      Logo of the EDM
      McDavid, Connor
      $12,500,000
      C
      NMC
      UFA - 4
      Logo of the CHI
      DeBrincat, Alex
      $6,400,000
      LW, RW
      RFA - 1
      Logo of the EDM
      Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan
      $5,125,000
      LW, C
      NMC
      UFA - 7
      Logo of the EDM
      Draisaitl, Leon
      $8,500,000
      C, LW
      NMC NTC
      UFA - 3
      Logo of the EDM
      Hyman, Zach
      $5,500,000
      LW, RW
      NMC
      UFA - 6
      Crouse, Lawson
      $3,000,000
      LW
      UFA - 5
      Logo of the EDM
      McLeod, Ryan
      $975,000
      C
      RFA
      Logo of the EDM
      Yamamoto, Kailer
      $2,750,000
      RW, C
      RFA - 2
      Logo of the EDM
      Malone, Brad
      $762,500
      C, LW
      UFA - 2
      Gagner, Sam
      $850,000
      C, RW
      UFA
      Deslauriers, Nicolas
      $1,500,000
      RW, LW
      NTC
      UFA - 4
      Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
      Logo of the EDM
      Nurse, Darnell
      $9,250,000
      LD
      NMC
      UFA - 8
      Logo of the EDM
      Bouchard, Evan
      $863,333
      RD
      RFA - 1
      Husso, Ville
      $3,750,000
      G
      NTC
      UFA - 3
      Logo of the EDM
      Kulak, Brett
      $2,250,000
      LD/RD
      UFA - 4
      Logo of the EDM
      Ceci, Cody
      $3,250,000
      RD
      UFA - 3
      Logo of the EDM
      Skinner, Stuart
      $750,000
      G
      RFA - 1
      Logo of the EDM
      Broberg, Philip
      $863,333
      LD
      RFA - 2
      Rutta, Jan
      $1,750,000
      LD/RD
      UFA - 3
      Keith, Duncan
      $1,000,000
      ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
      Logo of the EDM
      Perlini, Brendan
      $800,000
      RW, LW
      UFA
      Logo of the EDM
      Klefbom, Oscar
      $4,167,000
      LD
      NTC
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the EDM
      Shore, Devin
      $850,000
      LW, C, RW
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the EDM
      Smith, Mike
      $2,200,000
      G
      UFA - 1

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      Jun. 30 at 11:53 a.m.
      #26
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      Quoting: ceeque84
      Damn there are going to be some very disappointed Blackhawks fans when DeBrincat does get traded for just slightly better than what Minny got for Fiala.... Lets also not forget about the report that Debrincat has alredy let it be known that he doesnt want to stay in Chicago if they plan to go full rebuild mode... this being publicly known hurts the Hawks chance of getting an over the top deal for him.


      That is not true. In fact, Cat has expressed the opposite, saying that he is on board with the rebuild and wants to stay in CHI.
      Jun. 30 at 11:53 a.m.
      #27
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      Quoting: ChiHawk
      Fiala and Reinhart (pre trade) did not come close to matching Cat's career numbers they don't. The body of work of a player means as much or more then just one season.

      Cat = .834ppg, .435gpg
      Fiala = .675ppg, .296gpg

      That's not close and Cat is head and shoulders above Fiala not to mention, Cat plays both ends of the ice, is more physical on top of it.

      Regarding Reinhart, we are talking about trade values (you brought him up) and you can't use this past season as part of your analysis and then argue Cat's trade value is similar to what Reinhart's was...that's called inflating values to justify your point. Reinhart's numbers this past season have no value against what he was traded for. So, prior to Reinhart being traded; .649ppg, .134gpg...way off of Cat's numbers. Sorry man, but these guys aren't as good as Cat and it's not particularly close unless you cherry pick their best year (post trade for Reinhart) and compare it to one year of Cat but that's not how player value works.


      I didn't cherry pick any years, I took 2020s onwards for all of them. Yeah Debrincat posted better numbers like four years ago but it shouldn't have as big of an impact today compared to the more recent past.

      You could also make an argument that Fiala and Reinhart have upgraded their play from since then but Debrincat has stayed where he was. Including his best year from quite a distant past is more cherry picking than what I did.
      Jun. 30 at 11:54 a.m.
      #28
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      Quoting: ChiHawk
      That's wrong. It's the other way around. Kane said that not Cat. Kane said if Cat is traded then he's not sure he wants to stick around.


      He didn't even go far enough to say that directly. But it was implied that he MIGHT not want to stick around and would have to see how he feels if it comes to that.
      ChiHawk liked this.
      Jun. 30 at 11:57 a.m.
      #29
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      Quoting: justaBoss
      I didn't cherry pick any years, I took 2020s onwards for all of them. Yeah Debrincat posted better numbers like five years ago but it shouldn't have as big of an impact today compared to the more recent past.

      You could also make an argument that Fiala and Reinhart have upgraded their play from since then but Debrincat has stayed where he was. Including his best year from quite a distant past is more cherry picking than what I did.


      You did cherry pick. How does Reinhart's past season have any implication on what his value was at the time of the trade which you are using as justification why Cat should get less? That's literally hysterical!

      Cat just posted his best year based on points and goals not to mention he's a much more complete player now then he was earlier on.

      You're trying to paddle up river without an oar buddy...this is a poor argument on your part
      Garak liked this.
      Jun. 30 at 12:06 p.m.
      #30
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      Quoting: ChiHawk
      You did cherry pick. How does Reinhart's past season have any implication on what his value was at the time of the trade which you are using as justification why Cat should get less? That's literally hysterical!

      Cat just posted his best year based on points and goals not to mention he's a much more complete player now then he was earlier on.

      You're trying to paddle up river without an oar buddy


      Fine, actually that Reinhart one is a fair point, his performance in Florida did not impact his trade value, but your condescending tone is completely unnecessary.

      Debrincat has probably been the most complete player out of all of them in past 3-4 years, but honestly it doesn't matter that much, because what Reinhart or Fiala did in 2018 or something like that had little to no impact on what they received in trade in 2021 or 2022 respectively. And I'd argue the same applies for Debrincat as well. The more important factor for them is what they have done post-pandemic.

      Ultimately this does not change my argument. Recent past production between the three is very similar, and the advantage in value DeBrincat has almost fully comes from the fact he's still under contract. He's not going to be twice as valuable as those two were in terms of trade return, I can bet almost anything for that.
      Jun. 30 at 12:19 p.m.
      #31
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      Quoting: justaBoss
      Fine, actually that Reinhart one is a fair point, his performance in Florida did not impact his trade value, but your condescending tone is completely unnecessary.

      Debrincat has probably been the most complete player out of all of them in past 3-4 years, but honestly it doesn't matter that much, because what Reinhart or Fiala did in 2018 or something like that had little to no impact on what they received in trade in 2021 or 2022 respectively. And I'd argue the same applies for Debrincat as well. The more important factor for them is what they have done post-pandemic.

      Ultimately this does not change my argument. Recent past production between the three is very similar, and the advantage in value DeBrincat has almost fully comes from the fact he's still under contract. He's not going to be twice as valuable as those two were in terms of trade return, I can bet almost anything for that.


      Let's look at the past 2 seasons
      Fiala = 132 games, 53 goals, 125 points
      Cat = 134 games, 73 goals, 134 points

      And Cat is the more complete player. The advantage to Cat is he's simply a better, elite, player plus he's still under contract.
      Jun. 30 at 12:29 p.m.
      #32
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      Quoting: ChiHawk
      Let's look at the past 2 seasons
      Fiala = 132 games, 53 goals, 125 points
      Cat = 134 games, 73 goals, 134 points

      And Cat is the more complete player. The advantage to Cat is he's simply a better, elite, player plus he's still under contract.


      If a 9 point difference and 20 goal difference because of playing one of the greatest playmakers of all time is the difference between elite and not elite, then yes.

      We could also take in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons to include Reinhart during his time close to the pandemic close and what he produced in Buffalo.

      Debrincat = 122 games, 50 goals, 101 points
      Fiala = 114 games, 43 goals, 94 points
      Reinhart = 123 games, 47 goals, 90 points

      And for argument's sake

      Eichel = 89 games, 38 goals, 97 points, who was also traded for after this timeframe, granted a while later because of his injury situation.

      If I had to choose between one of the players, yes DeBrincat is the best, but the performance/value difference is not that major, and I'd argue Debrincat had the best players to play with during this timeframe.
      Jun. 30 at 1:01 p.m.
      #33
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      Quoting: justaBoss
      If a 9 point difference and 20 goal difference because of playing one of the greatest playmakers of all time is the difference between elite and not elite, then yes.

      We could also take in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons to include Reinhart during his time close to the pandemic close and what he produced in Buffalo.

      Debrincat = 122 games, 50 goals, 101 points
      Fiala = 114 games, 43 goals, 94 points
      Reinhart = 123 games, 47 goals, 90 points

      And for argument's sake

      Eichel = 89 games, 38 goals, 97 points, who was also traded for after this timeframe, granted a while later because of his injury situation.

      If I had to choose between one of the players, yes DeBrincat is the best, but the performance/value difference is not that major, and I'd argue Debrincat had the best players to play with during this timeframe.


      What's more interesting is how similar Cat and Eichel are.

      Needless to say, ask LD or McDavid who they prefer on a line with them and there answer will almost certainly be Cat. Which is also why Edmonton would probably value Cat more then the others. Also why, Chicago, unlike Minnesota or Buffalo, has zero reason to trade Cat unless it's an offer they can't refuse. It's going to take a to get Cat, it starts with a team's #1 or #2 prospect, a good young player, and a 1st rounder. In the case of Edmonton, Holloway or Broberg likely, JP or Yamamoto, the 2022 or 2023 1st to get the conversation going.
      Jun. 30 at 1:05 p.m.
      #34
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      Quoting: ChiHawk
      What's more interesting is how similar Cat and Eichel are.

      Needless to say, ask LD or McDavid who they prefer on a line with them and there answer will almost certainly be Cat. Which is also why Edmonton would probably value Cat more then the others. Also why, Chicago, unlike Minnesota or Buffalo, has zero reason to trade Cat unless it's an offer they can't refuse. It's going to take a to get Cat, it starts with a team's #1 or #2 prospect, a good young player, and a 1st rounder. In the case of Edmonton, Holloway or Broberg likely, JP or Yamamoto, the 2022 or 2023 1st to get the conversation going.


      That is not far from this offer honestly. Basically means changing Bourgault to Holloway.
      ChiHawk liked this.
      Jul. 7 at 4:45 p.m.
      #35
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      Quoting: Garak
      I can assure you that it is not an overpayment and CHI would decline that offer without thinking twice about it.


      This comment aged like milk
      ceeque84 liked this.
      Jul. 7 at 4:51 p.m.
      #36
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      Quoting: justaBoss
      This comment aged like milk


      Quoting: justaBoss
      This comment aged like milk


      I believe i said somewhere on this thread there will be alot of disappointed Blackhawk fans when DeBrincat gets dealt for just slightly better than what Minny got for Fiala.
      Jul. 7 at 4:54 p.m.
      #37
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      Quoting: ceeque84
      I believe i said somewhere on this thread there will be alot of disappointed Blackhawk fans when DeBrincat gets dealt for just slightly better than what Minny got for Fiala.


      Quoting: justaBoss
      Lmao if you truly think you're getting almost 4 firsts worth of stuff for one year of DeBrincat before his big QO kicks in you're setting yourself for a massive disappointment.

      I can't recall a trade in modern NHL history with such a return (2010s onwards).


      Yeah I might have said something pointing that direction
       
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