Forums/Armchair-GM

Otter

Created by: Random2152
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 30, 2022
Published: Jun. 30, 2022
Team: 2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs
Team Explanation
Simple idea. I didn't bother making other trades as they aren't the point. I just filled out the roster with guys who are going to make a push for roster spots this year. We will have additional space and assets even in this scenario with which to improve (3M of space + the aav of the guys they'd be replacing on the roster).

Dallas can match IF they do nothing else this off season, but if they try to keep or replace Klingberg that presents an opportunity to strike on the cheap. Reportedly contract talks are not going well between them and Otter so far.

OS don't happen so this is unrealistic but quite frankely I really do think it is one of the better possible solutions in net if we can actually pull it off
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
Oettinger, Jake5$6,300,000
Engvall, Pierre2$1,750,000
Kase, Ondrej2$1,750,000
Sandin, Rasmus2$1,400,000
Offer Sheets
Offer sheet annual average (AAV) is calculated by dividing the contract value by the lower of: 1. The contract length, or 2. Five years
PLAYERAAVCOMPENSATION
Oettinger, Jake$6,300,000
2023 1st round pick
2023 3rd round pick
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2022
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the WPG
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2023
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2024
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$82,500,000$79,551,450$212,500$0$2,948,550
Left WingCenterRight Wing
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Bunting, Michael
$950,000
LW
UFA - 1
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Matthews, Auston
$11,640,250
C
UFA - 2
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Marner, Mitchell
$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 3
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Kase, Ondrej
$1,750,000
RW
UFA - 1
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Tavares, John
$11,000,000
C
NMC
UFA - 3
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Anderson, Joey
$750,000
RW
RFA - 1
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Nylander, William
$6,962,366
RW, LW
UFA - 2
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Kämpf, David
$1,500,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the TOR
Engvall, Pierre
$1,750,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the TOR
Robertson, Nicholas
$796,667
LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the TOR
Holmberg, Pontus
$827,500
RW, LW
RFA - 1
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Steeves, Alex
$834,167
C
RFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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Rielly, Morgan
$7,500,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 8
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Sandin, Rasmus
$1,400,000
LD
RFA
Oettinger, Jake
$6,300,000
G
RFA
Logo of the TOR
Muzzin, Jake
$5,625,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
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Brodie, TJ
$5,000,000
LD/RD
NTC
UFA - 2
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Källgren, Erik
$750,000
G
RFA - 1
Logo of the TOR
Giordano, Mark
$800,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the TOR
Liljegren, Timothy
$1,400,000
RD
RFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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Simmonds, Wayne
$900,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the TOR
Mrázek, Petr
$3,800,000
G
NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the TOR
Holl, Justin
$2,000,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the TOR
Kerfoot, Alexander
$3,500,000
LW, C
NTC
UFA - 1
Taxi Squad
Logo of the TOR
Clifford, Kyle
$762,500 ($0)
LW
UFA - 2

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Jun. 30 at 6:27 a.m.
#1
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Matched instantly
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Jun. 30 at 6:28 a.m.
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Matched instantly


You should read some times before commentating. If they keep Klingberg or replace him, they will really struggle to at that level of comp
Jun. 30 at 6:35 a.m.
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Quoting: Random2152
You should read some times before commentating. If they keep Klingberg or replace him, they will really struggle to at that level of comp


I did read and no they won't no they won't. Dallas has 19.5M cap space to work with and 17 players signed. Lets assume Robertson gets the Svechnikov contract, that leaves them just under 12M. Matching this deal leaves them with around 5.5M and 3-4 players to sign. Sutter can be bought out, cheap palyers can be brought up like Dellandrea, Khudobin can be moved.

I think you greatly overrate their cap issues
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Jun. 30 at 6:38 a.m.
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
I did read and no they won't no they won't. Dallas has 19.5M cap space to work with and 17 players signed. Lets assume Robertson gets the Svechnikov contract, that leaves them just under 12M. Matching this deal leaves them with around 5.5M and 3-4 players to sign. Sutter can be bought out, cheap palyers can be brought up like Dellandrea, Khudobin can be moved.

I think you greatly overrate their cap issues


20 mil:
-8 ish for Robbie
12 mil:
-3-5 ish for depth guys (and that is pretty lean - 2.25 is the min)
7-9 mil:
-6 ish for Klingberg
1-3 mil:
-6.5 for Otter
(5.5)-(3.5)mil:

They have issues man.
Jun. 30 at 6:49 a.m.
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Quoting: Random2152
20 mil:
-8 ish for Robbie
12 mil:
-3-5 ish for depth guys (and that is pretty lean - 2.25 is the min)
7-9 mil:
-6 ish for Klingberg
1-3 mil:
-6.5 for Otter
(5.5)-(3.5)mil:

They have issues man.


You literally just commented on me not reading then you failed to read yourself. What part of they can buy out Suter or move Khudobin did you miss? I mean you magically made 9.3M cap disappear from your above roster, why does that rule only apply to Toronto and not Dallas?
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Jun. 30 at 6:51 a.m.
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A 2nd line of Kase and Joey Anderson?

Thats diabolical
Jun. 30 at 6:54 a.m.
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
You literally just commented on me not reading then you failed to read yourself. What part of they can buy out Suter or move Khudobin did you miss? I mean you magically made 9.3M cap disappear from your above roster, why does that rule only apply to Toronto and not Dallas?


Oh I read it. But you just suck at math.
Suter saves you 2.6 - replacement cost (so maybe a million in real money best case)
Khudobin again the same.

They have serious issues with an OS at this level. Its okay to admit it

Besides, Leafs would have a much easier time clearing the space then Dallas would, especially with the time constraints limiting them and the fact that the 3 I have here are being moved regardless of Otter for the Leafs (2 of which have positive value, something Dallas can't say).
Jun. 30 at 6:54 a.m.
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Quoting: Hammerwise
A 2nd line of Kase and Joey Anderson?

Thats diabolical


Gotta have some energy guys to open space for JT right? Pummel em and see what cap't can do
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Jun. 30 at 6:57 a.m.
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Quoting: Random2152
Gotta have some energy guys to open space for JT right? Pummel em and see what cap't can do


Full marks on not going insane like most Leaf posters, but Kase was lucky to make it to 50 games and maybe Robertson should get his chance there.

Joey Anderson, in 4 seasons he hasnt been able to really get full time NHL duty and barely got a callup the last 2 yrs, hes just not a nhler and certainly not in the top 6.

Dont re-sign Kase and you have almost 4mil for a solid 7th dman AND a rater unspectacular top 6 winger.
Jun. 30 at 7:04 a.m.
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Quoting: Hammerwise
Full marks on not going insane like most Leaf posters, but Kase was lucky to make it to 50 games and maybe Robertson should get his chance there.

Joey Anderson, in 4 seasons he hasnt been able to really get full time NHL duty and barely got a callup the last 2 yrs, hes just not a nhler and certainly not in the top 6.

Dont re-sign Kase and you have almost 4mil for a solid 7th dman AND a rater unspectacular top 6 winger.


Anderson not playing is less on him than it is on our depth. We simply didn't have space. He was good in his limited stints this year. He was excellent on the Marlies and he will certainly get a shot.
I get why you're worried about Kase and injuries, but all that makes me think is that we can get him cheaper than I have here. He is good and worth it at that cost.

Anyway I just didn't bother doing other moves as Otter is the focus here. JA and Kase isn't an ideal 2nd line (as much as I would like to see it tried) and is just a stand in to show we have space to add in this scenario. My real target for JT's wing is Puljujarvi (for Kerfoot) and yes Kenny is absolutely stupid enough to take that deal.

Robbie will get his chance up the lineup too, but better to start conservative
Jun. 30 at 7:07 a.m.
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Quoting: Random2152
Oh I read it. But you just suck at math.
Suter saves you 2.6 - replacement cost (so maybe a million in real money best case)
Khudobin again the same.

They have serious issues with an OS at this level. Its okay to admit it

Besides, Leafs would have a much easier time clearing the space then Dallas would, especially with the time constraints limiting them and the fact that the 3 I have here are being moved regardless of Otter for the Leafs.


Well first it's quite unlikely Kerfoot is moved unless it's to bring in an upgrade like Miller or something.

Secondly, you keep working with this idea that Klingberg is 100% coming back when he probably isn't. Dallas isn't willing to offer him the term that he wants and so he's most likely going to the market. He's already lost his job as the #1 to the far superior Heiskanen so they don't need to find an exact replacement for him either. Plus there will be a bunch of teams trying to move cap out or decent #4 options on the market.

Your math is also bad. Suter does give them 2.6M but they already have a replacement in the lineup with Harley. Dobby is literally in the AHL, he currently doesn't need a replacement at all as he doesn't take up a roster spot.
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Jun. 30 at 7:07 a.m.
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Unless you overpay and offer Oettinger 7-8 million I can't see how Dallas doesn't match. They'd much rather let go of Klingberg than let go of Oettinger
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Jun. 30 at 7:11 a.m.
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Quoting: majormoose007
Unless you overpay and offer Oettinger 7-8 million I can't see how Dallas doesn't match. They'd much rather let go of Klingberg than let go of Oettinger


Maybe, but essentially if they keep Klinger or replace him at all (with any top-4 Dman type) they open themselves up to a major OS threat. Thats all this AGM is.
Problem for Dallas is that they need to make the decision on the D before the OS threat if they don't get Otter done before fake July 1st (July 13th?)

According to Serivelli (sic) negotiations are going poorly, so this might be what an overpay looks like as weird as it may seem. It would take a perfect storm (and some balls) but the possibility is out there.

But this is the NHL so no need to worry lol
Jun. 30 at 7:23 a.m.
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Edited Jun. 30 at 7:43 a.m.
Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Well first it's quite unlikely Kerfoot is moved unless it's to bring in an upgrade like Miller or something.


I'd be shocked if he were still here on day 1. All flags point towards trade right now, also for miller or an upgrade like that doesn't inherently make sense - at least not necessarily apart of his trade

Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Secondly, you keep working with this idea that Klingberg is 100% coming back when he probably isn't.


FFS go back and read like I told you to: "Dallas can match IF they do nothing else this off season, but if they try to keep or replace Klingberg that presents an opportunity to strike on the cheap"

Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Your math is also bad. Suter does give them 2.6M but they already have a replacement in the lineup with Harley. Dobby is literally in the AHL, he currently doesn't need a replacement at all as he doesn't take up a roster spot.


You need a player in the lineup for Klingberg. That costs money. His 2.6 saved gets eaten into by whoever takes up one of the 23 roster spots he vacates.
Khudobin buyout saves 2.5 mil, him in the minors cost 2.2, so you get 1 mil from moving him. I simplified it for time but their numbers work out the same through buyout. If you trade him (costs assets and/or contracts coming back) and buyout suter you get an additional 3.3 mil combined (best case scenario), which as we already established still is extremely difficult under the best of circumstances cap wise.

You're **** at math lmao
Jun. 30 at 7:36 a.m.
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I'm all for this chaos
Jun. 30 at 7:40 a.m.
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Quoting: Random2152
I'd be shocked if he were still here on day 1. All flags point towards trade right now, also for miller or an upgrade like that doesn't inherently make sense - at least not necessarily apart of his trade



FFS go back and read like I told you to: "Dallas can match IF they do nothing else this off season, but if they try to keep or replace Klingberg that presents an opportunity to strike on the cheap"



You need a player in the lineup for Klingberg. That costs money. His 2.6 saved gets eaten into by whoever takes up one of the 23 roster spots he vacates.
Khudobin buyout saves 2.5 mil, him in the minors cost 2.2, so you get 1 mil from moving him. I simplified it for time but their numbers work out the same through buyout. If you trade him (costs assets and/or contracts coming back) and buyout suter you get an additional 3.3 mil (best case scenario), which as we already established still is extremely difficult under the best of circumstances cap wise.

You're **** at math lmao

Please tell me where my math is wrong, even brought back Klingberg just for you
vOJPRlf.png
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Jun. 30 at 7:47 a.m.
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Please tell me where my math is wrong, even brought back Klingberg just for you
vOJPRlf.png


Not a full roster, not a buyout of Khudobin, and no cap space with absolute best case scenarios for all your contracts.
And again, if you look at the numbers you were using, your math was wrong lmao.

This is my point exactly. They are in a lot of trouble with a well placed OS for Otter. Thank you for proving my point so well

Did you even buyout Suter or are you lying about that to try and win an argument?
Jun. 30 at 8:04 a.m.
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Quoting: Random2152
Not a full roster, not a buyout of Khudobin, and no cap space with absolute best case scenarios for all your contracts.
And again, if you look at the numbers you were using, your math was wrong lmao.

This is my point exactly. They are in a lot of trouble with a well placed OS for Otter. Thank you for proving my point so well

Did you even buyout Suter or are you lying about that to try and win an argument?


I bought out Suter like I said I above (his cap hit is clearly gone), and I placed Khudobin on LTIR to represent trading him like I said above. I never said anything about buying out Dobby but that can also work, just -833k.

How is it not a full roster? Because I only have 22 players signed but still have 1.4M cap space? Not like 22 players is an illegal roster or something, you posted a roster with 21 players

And best case on contracts? I signed 4 players:
1. Otter to the exact offersheet I am matching
2. Robertson to the exact same deal as Svechnikov, as well as within 200k of what Evolving Wild projects him to get
3. Studenic to exactly what EW projects for him
4. A back up goalie (again at what he is projected at by EW)
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Jun. 30 at 8:17 a.m.
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
I bought out Suter like I said I above (his cap hit is clearly gone), and I placed Khudobin on LTIR to represent trading him like I said above. I never said anything about buying out Dobby but that can also work, just -833k.

How is it not a full roster? Because I only have 22 players signed but still have 1.4M cap space? Not like 22 players is an illegal roster or something, you posted a roster with 21 players

And best case on contracts? I signed 4 players:
1. Otter to the exact offersheet I am matching
2. Robertson to the exact same deal as Svechnikov, as well as within 200k of what Evolving Wild projects him to get
3. Studenic to exactly what EW projects for him
4. A back up goalie (again at what he is projected at by EW)


My SC of EWs projections Have Wedgewood at 2@2.045, JR at 6@7.856.
You also have a litany of depth at league minimum and a 22 man roster which is not normal (the Leafs tend to be the exception in that case, we also have significant space to fill it which was the point)
Regardless, all of this is literally a best case scenario for the Stars - that is exceptionally unlikely to happen. Proper budgeting for depth tends to run at its leanest around 3-5 million (hence why I budgeted that earlier). You have it literally at 2.25.

Look at how much fudging you have to do to make it work, and you're really trying to sit here and tell me that they're fine and 'easily match'? Come on man this is absurd. They would be in trouble and this clearly proves just how much trouble it is. I never said impossible, I said "really struggle" and this is the definition of that.

Hell I don't even think the Leafs depth ever got this cheap. We ran lean numbers wise, but aav wise we still kept it in normal ranges - not like this.
Jun. 30 at 8:27 a.m.
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Stars match instantly. They should sign JRob and Otter first then do other moves. IMO they should let Klingberg go and get a cheaper replacement.

If Toronto tries to OS Otter, don’t forget they have their cap worries too, except something like a Sandin OS to be given not too long after.
Jun. 30 at 8:30 a.m.
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Quoting: EsoYeezus69
Stars match instantly. They should sign JRob and Otter first then do other moves. IMO they should let Klingberg go and get a cheaper replacement.

If Toronto tries to OS Otter, don’t forget they have their cap worries too, except something like a Sandin OS to be given not too long after.


So you just not pay attention to the whole part about how Toronto is in a much better cap spot than you are if you keep or replace Klingberg? Besides we'd have him locked up by then and even if we were stupid and didn't could survive an OS anyway
Jun. 30 at 8:38 a.m.
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Quoting: Random2152
So you just not pay attention to the whole part about how Toronto is in a much better cap spot than you are if you keep or replace Klingberg? Besides we'd have him locked up by then and even if we were stupid and didn't could survive an OS anyway


First of all Dallas has reportedly said that they aren’t willing to give Klingberg what he wants, so he’ll probably go to Seattle. There’s tons of cheap replacements out there, it’s not like Klingberg is vital to this team. They aren’t as much in cap hell as you think they’re.

Also you said that the Leafs will lock up Sandin because they aren’t stupid, then why aren’t the Stars locking up Otter who’s a way more important player? Stars could match an Otter OS, but chances are it doesn’t get there and the Stars resign him.
Jun. 30 at 8:38 a.m.
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Quoting: Random2152
My SC of EWs projections Have Wedgewood at 22.045, JR at 67.856.
You also have a litany of depth at league minimum and a 22 man roster which is not normal (the Leafs tend to be the exception in that case, we also have significant space to fill it which was the point)
Regardless, all of this is literally a best case scenario for the Stars - that is exceptionally unlikely to happen. Proper budgeting for depth tends to run at its leanest around 3-5 million (hence why I budgeted that earlier). You have it literally at 2.25.

Look at how much fudging you have to do to make it work, and you're really trying to sit here and tell me that they're fine and 'easily match'? Come on man this is absurd. They would be in trouble and this clearly proves just how much trouble it is


Whether it's Wedgewood or someone else cheap really doesn't matter, but they have him at a 41% chance to sign for 1 year at 1.425M and a 43% chance to sign for 2 years at 2.045M. I chose the 1 year deal

The forward depth I have here is nearly the exact same as what they had last year, 10/12 returning regular forwards. The only differences are Dellandrea and Studenic in for Raffl and Radulov. I can also resign Sekera for 800k as the #7 and 23rd player. All these "depth players" are literally already signed to contracts and regulars on the team. To me this is just you trying to double down on your already poor take by using league averages instead of literal fact on what the teams composition already is.

The only thing that makes this a "best case scenario" is if the worst case scenario of Otter signing an OS happens first. And Klingberg (or similar) is already signed. An actual best case scenario would probably be re-signing Namestnikov with the spare money saved on not having to match an OS, and/or not re-signing Klingberg to a deal that could very possibly not age well
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Jun. 30 at 8:46 a.m.
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Whether it's Wedgewood or someone else cheap really doesn't matter, but they have him at a 41% chance to sign for 1 year at 1.425M and a 43% chance to sign for 2 years at 2.045M. I chose the 1 year deal


Exactly. Literally the best case scenario for Dallas. That is my whole, entire point of this. If they go for klinger or equivalent, they open themselves up for a very real and dangerous OS threat that requires them to thread many needles to navigate safely.

Anyway OS aren't real so whatever.
Jun. 30 at 8:49 a.m.
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Quoting: EsoYeezus69
First of all Dallas has reportedly said that they aren’t willing to give Klingberg what he wants, so he’ll probably go to Seattle. There’s tons of cheap replacements out there, it’s not like Klingberg is vital to this team. They aren’t as much in cap hell as you think they’re.

Also you said that the Leafs will lock up Sandin because they aren’t stupid, then why aren’t the Stars locking up Otter who’s a way more important player? Stars could match an Otter OS, but chances are it doesn’t get there and the Stars resign him.


The premise of the agm is if:
Dallas signs Klinger or some equivalent (might as well use klinger since he's already there).

I am aware that they are fine if they dont. Next time consider reading the description.

Reports are coming in that contract negotiations are not going well with otter. They may drag out.

Again, read the desc. Ffs.


This entire exchange is rendered pointless by you being literate and reading the helpfully provided description. Please use it in the future.
 
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