This assumes Letang/Malkin/Fleury are signed -- least likely scenario imo -- all contracts are based on Evolving Hockey's contract projections with a few modifications (Fleury takes a discount, Malkin gets asking price)
1. Move Big Jeff Carter to RW (this should be done for any scenario) to maximize offensive impact, minimize defensive mistakes (and he can still take faceoffs when needed). The C market is also deeper than the RW market
2. Sign ERod to $3M x 3yrs -- this deal seems destined to happen at this point with the RW market being rather limited. His first half production last season was absolutely remarkable, playing at an all-star level without the benefit of superstar linemates for the majority of it, until he perplexingly fell off of a cliff. I would bet his actual production falls somewhat in the middle, with potential for elite-level spurts, which would make this a really good deal for a middle-six winger/swing center
3. Sign Nico Sturm to $2.5M x 2yrs -- solid defensive C, although actual contract may come at higher cost after winning the cup
4. Sign Mason Marchment to $2.5M x 3yrs -- this is somewhat of a gamble but could pay off very well so long as the Pens do not overpay. Marchment earned 47 points in 54 games playing mostly on Florida's 3rd line last season -- an unusually high production rate that will likely not be repeated. However, Evolving Hockey projects his next contract to be $2.5M for 3 yrs which would be an absolute steal even if production dips. Per Dom Luszczyszyn's (@domluszczyszyn) model, a contract at this value would yield a surplus value of $4.2M per season (i.e., he would be severely underpaid according to projections). Although, I do expect Marchment to end up with a higher contract -- but Evolving Hockey is far more accurate than intuitions.
5. Sign Colin Blackwell to $1M x 1yr -- a very good defensive winger for a very team-friendly price. I've also signed Alexander Nylander for a similar contract ($950k x 2yrs) but I'd rather give him more minutes in AHL and plug in for injuries -- I think he has potential to be middle-six winger.
6. Trade Brian Dumoulin for pick(s) -- the trade I have now is essentially a placeholder because it's so difficult to predict trade value right now. He's probably worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick to the right team looking for defensive help. I'm hoping a team like Detroit would overpay given the limited D market for a left-pairing defenseman with Seider. Most importantly, I think it is wiser to trade Dumo than Pettersson. The latter has actually performed better(!) defensively from an analytical standpoint and is both younger and has more term left on his contract. Regardless of the Malkin/Letang situation, the Pens should trade Dumo over Pettersson and especially over Marino. To replace him brings us to 7...
7. Sign POJ to $1M x 2yrs -- this looks likely to be his next contract (despite reports that management/coaching are not too fond of him). I think POJ/Marino have potential to be the Pen's top-D pairing for the foreseeable future following Letang's eventual (hopefully later) departure. If POJ doesn't end up being the NHL-caliber player many fans expect him to be, the contract is not hindering and Friedman is a suitable replacement.
If the FO wants to win now, signing Letang is priority 1A and Malkin 1B. Signing Fleury would be a luxury if he decides to take a discount. Despite each of their ages, Letang, Malkin, and Fleury have performed at elite levels these past two years (it's just that slight dips in production from years of being at the very top makes us think of them as worse than they actually are). That is not to say age is not an issue -- it very much is. However, it's just that age is so variable for different players. Letang could feasibly play at a top-2 D level until he's 40 -- or he could fall off a cliff next season. I would bet on the former. Malkin and Fleury are even harder to predict, but a 2-year term is not going to dismantle the franchise. I was hoping that Malkin would take a discount to stay competitive longer, but that seems unlikely. However, even if he continues to play like he did last season, $7M is a bargain. It would be nearly impossible to replace his production in free agency at the same cost (even Trocheck would cost about that and he's never even reached Malkin's value last season which was supposedly his worst season to date).
Too many teams are looking to trade LHD to clear cap, no need to trade the 8OA pick for a player, when Martinez, Schmidt and others could be on the block for a lot less.
This is a joke right? Detroit doesn't want Dumoulin period and his value is NOWHERE near a 1st, let alone a high first.
See description #7. The trade is a placeholder because I’m focusing more on roster construction than what the actual trade will return. I said it’ll be more like a 2nd to 3rd round pick but it’s too difficult to project trade returns.
Edit: changed to 2nd round pick for the trade critics, but just think of it as Dumo to highest bidder for pick(s)
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