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Realistic Miller Returns

Created by: qc14
Team: 2022-23 Vancouver Canucks
Initial Creation Date: Jul. 1, 2022
Published: Jul. 1, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
In light of the Fiala deal, as well as every other NHL trade of the past ten years, here is a more realistic expectation of what Miller will return for Canucks fans. If there is a player from the last ten years who got significantly (i.e. more than a second or a B/C prospect) more, please let me know. Sure, add on a second or a third or a 2nd round pick from 4 years ago who just put up more than .5ppg in the AHL last season or your favorite guy over the age of 29 playing less than 15 mins a night to any of these trades if it makes you feel better, but this is what you are going to get.

If the actual return is much greater than any of these, I will personally write an apology letter to Alvin and Rutherford.
Trades
1.
VAN
  1. Necas, Martin [RFA Rights]
  2. 2023 1st round pick (CAR)
CAR
2.
VAN
  1. Girard, Samuel
  2. 2023 1st round pick (COL)
COL
3.
VAN
  1. Khusnutdinov, Marat [Reserve List]
  2. 2022 1st round pick (MIN)
  3. 2022 2nd round pick (VAN)
MIN
4.
VAN
  1. Smith, Ty
  2. 2023 1st round pick (NJD)
NJD
5.
NYR
6.
VAN
  1. Lapierre, Hendrix
  2. 2022 1st round pick (WSH)
  3. 2022 2nd round pick (WPG)
WSH
Buyouts
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the WSH
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
2023
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the CAR
Logo of the COL
Logo of the NJD
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the NYR
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
2024
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
Logo of the VAN
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
21$82,500,000$75,628,333$1,250,000$3,300,000$6,871,667
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$5,250,000$5,250,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$7,350,000$7,350,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$4,950,000$4,950,000
RW, LW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$3,250,000$3,250,000
LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$4,125,000$4,125,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$950,000$950,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$2,650,000$2,650,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RW, LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$750,000$750,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Washington Capitals
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$50,000$50K)
C
RFA - 3
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$7,850,000$7,850,000
LD
UFA - 5
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
UFA - 4
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$7,260,000$7,260,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$850,000$850,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$762,500$762,500
G
UFA - 2
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$750,000$750,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Colorado Avalanche
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 5
Logo of the New Jersey Devils
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
LD/RD
RFA - 1
Logo of the New York Rangers
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
RD
RFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$2,500,000$2,500,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$891,667$891,667 (Performance Bonus$300,000$300K)
LW, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$762,500$762,500
RD
UFA - 1

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Jul. 1, 2022 at 1:28 p.m.
#1
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Problem is he’d only be a rental and then we couldn’t afford to resign him. We’d then be left looking for a 2C again except this time we won’t have Kakko or Lundkvist in the system to work with. Cap is an issue for the Rangers and one that’ll dictate their moves and success going forward.
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Jul. 1, 2022 at 1:31 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: HOCKEYBOY448
Problem is he’d only be a rental and then we couldn’t afford to resign him. We’d then be left looking for a 2C again except this time we won’t have Kakko or Lundkvist in the system to work with. Cap is an issue for the Rangers and one that’ll dictate their moves and success going forward.


I agree and I don't think all of these teams would want/accept these trades, NYR in particular just don't seem like they could make it work for the reason you said. Just continuing to beat the dead horse of tempering vancouver fans' expectations with potential returns from teams that are rumored to be interested
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Jul. 1, 2022 at 1:32 p.m.
#3
alwaysnextyear
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Given the return for Fiala, you're probably close on these trade return examples. The suitors for Miller could include some different teams than Fiala had though, as Miller could have a $2.625m cap hit this year if VAN retains 50%. But you'd think the teams that would pay a premium have an eye on extending him too.

To me Boston and Washington make a ton of sense with the Bergeron/Backstrom situations. Both are teams that won't be entering rebuilds anytime soon.
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Jul. 1, 2022 at 1:32 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: alwaysnextyear
Given the return for Fiala, you're probably close on these trade return examples. The suitors for Miller could include some different teams than Fiala had though, as Miller could have a $2.625m cap hit this year if VAN retains 50%. But you'd think the teams that would pay a premium have an eye on extending him too.

To me Boston and Washington make a ton of sense with the Bergeron/Backstrom situations. Both are teams that won't be entering rebuilds anytime soon.


I would love for the Caps to get him
Jul. 1, 2022 at 1:33 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: qc14
I agree and I don't think all of these teams would want/accept these trades, NYR in particular just don't seem like they could make it work for the reason you said. Just continuing to beat the dead horse of tempering vancouver fans' expectations with potential returns from teams that are rumored to be interested


Toughest part about is so much money being tied up between Panarin, Mika, Kreider, Trouba, Goodrow, Fox and Shesty. It’s not that they are all absurdly overpaid it just makes it very challenging to improve the team and resign the younger players that will need to be paid.
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Jul. 1, 2022 at 1:34 p.m.
#6
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I'd be surprised if we acquired Miller. Guerin's plan seems to be to build through the draft.
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Jul. 1, 2022 at 1:34 p.m.
#7
alwaysnextyear
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Quoting: qc14
I would love for the Caps to get him


That might be the best fit for both sides. I'd love to see Miller feeding Ovi passes on the PP.
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Jul. 1, 2022 at 1:55 p.m.
#8
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Minnesota declines. They aren't interested in JT Miller and won't pay that price. It's been made abundantly clear Guerin won't trade top prospects or 1st round pick for rentals
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Jul. 1, 2022 at 2:00 p.m.
#9
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So, you're saying the return for Miller would be much greater than Fiala? I know he's a center and he's a good one. But he's one year from being a UFA and will be 30 soon which is 4 very productive years older than Fiala. If the Wild did have cap space the return would likely be the Canucks 2022 2nd round pick and either Khusnutdinov or the 19th pick. But given the cap issues Guerin would only entertain trading some of these picks for prospects or young affordable players. Otherwise he'll continue building his prospect pool which is already impressive not including picks 19, 24, 44 and 56.
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Jul. 1, 2022 at 2:10 p.m.
#10
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While I agree much of Canucks Capfriedly overvalues him (ie. He's not worth Schneider, Laf, and a 1st), I think the Miller return will exceed Fiala for the following reasons:

1: He can switch seamlessly between wing and center and excels at either position.
2: He plays 5v5, PP, and PK, a valuable skillset in the league
3: His current caphit gives teams a year of breathing room to try to resign him instead of being forced to take on a larger caphit immediately (or hell, maybe they trade him at the deadline lol)

I think a trio of assets is a near guarantee for him, but what it will look like depends on who/what comes back. A 1st rd pick is an absolute, but the two other pieces, prospect and roster player will vary based on what the focal point is. Either a top end, grade A prospect and a mid-level young-ish roster player, or a budding star roster player (think Necas or Jarvis for example) and then a b-level prospect that might be a few years away.
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Jul. 1, 2022 at 2:25 p.m.
#11
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I was disappointed when the NYR let J.T. go. Ditto Buchnevich, just when they were about , and for Blueshirt fans of a certain vintage Tony Amonte to the Hawks and I could go on, but I won't. That said, I complete with the opening remarks of HOCKEYBOY448.
Jul. 1, 2022 at 2:44 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: Jeffrey14465
So, you're saying the return for Miller would be much greater than Fiala? I know he's a center and he's a good one. But he's one year from being a UFA and will be 30 soon which is 4 very productive years older than Fiala. If the Wild did have cap space the return would likely be the Canucks 2022 2nd round pick and either Khusnutdinov or the 19th pick. But given the cap issues Guerin would only entertain trading some of these picks for prospects or young affordable players. Otherwise he'll continue building his prospect pool which is already impressive not including picks 19, 24, 44 and 56.


My impression was that Khusnutdinov was a worse prospect than Faber at this point, and the Wild pick is later than the Kings one, so the second pick made up the difference to be around equal to Fiala -- not at all a prospect guy though so could definitely be wrong on that. Agree that MIN doesn't make the most sense as a landing spot, but they theoretically would be in on a top center that would be really cheap for one year.
Jul. 1, 2022 at 2:52 p.m.
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Quoting: ItsBlowTime
While I agree much of Canucks Capfriedly overvalues him (ie. He's not worth Schneider, Laf, and a 1st), I think the Miller return will exceed Fiala for the following reasons:

1: He can switch seamlessly between wing and center and excels at either position.
2: He plays 5v5, PP, and PK, a valuable skillset in the league
3: His current caphit gives teams a year of breathing room to try to resign him instead of being forced to take on a larger caphit immediately (or hell, maybe they trade him at the deadline lol)

I think a trio of assets is a near guarantee for him, but what it will look like depends on who/what comes back. A 1st rd pick is an absolute, but the two other pieces, prospect and roster player will vary based on what the focal point is. Either a top end, grade A prospect and a mid-level young-ish roster player, or a budding star roster player (think Necas or Jarvis for example) and then a b-level prospect that might be a few years away.


I agree 100% on all of those points. The problem for Vancouver is that the NHL is not like the NBA or European soccer where a more valuable player will get you a more valuable return. Because NHL GMs are so risk averse and hugely overvalue future assets, the return on literally anyone is pretty much capped at a 1st + top prospect. Eichel, who was 23, locked in long term, and was at worst a top 15 center in the league at the time he got moved only returned a 1st, Peyton Krebs, and Tuch. There is a pretty hard cap on what guys return in the NHL, and Fiala hit it. I really don't think Miller will be the guy to finally break through that ceiling.
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Jul. 1, 2022 at 3:00 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: qc14
My impression was that Khusnutdinov was a worse prospect than Faber at this point, and the Wild pick is later than the Kings one, so the second pick made up the difference to be around equal to Fiala -- not at all a prospect guy though so could definitely be wrong on that. Agree that MIN doesn't make the most sense as a landing spot, but they theoretically would be in on a top center that would be really cheap for one year.


Khusnutdinov is literally two spots after Faber who is considered our new #4 prospect. Only separated by Addison according to Scott Wheeler of the Athletic.



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Jul. 1, 2022 at 6:50 p.m.
#15
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Quoting: qc14
I agree 100% on all of those points. The problem for Vancouver is that the NHL is not like the NBA or European soccer where a more valuable player will get you a more valuable return. Because NHL GMs are so risk averse and hugely overvalue future assets, the return on literally anyone is pretty much capped at a 1st + top prospect. Eichel, who was 23, locked in long term, and was at worst a top 15 center in the league at the time he got moved only returned a 1st, Peyton Krebs, and Tuch. There is a pretty hard cap on what guys return in the NHL, and Fiala hit it. I really don't think Miller will be the guy to finally break through that ceiling.


That's a fair point on Eichel, but I'd say heath concerns lowered the return. Then on the other side, Tuch is a top-line winger and Krebs is a grade-A prospect. When dealing with someone that's not Eichel one of those two assets would be worse.
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