I'm pretty sure that a $4M offsheet would only cost a 2nd. Think it has to be above $4.1M to hit 1st and 3rd

or the leafs can just sign Sandin to a sane contract before he's eligible for an offersheet

They have 6.4M in cap space and need to sign a good goalie, Sandin+
Also need to pay Engvall & Kase if they want to keep them.

Kerfoot is a 50 point two way player that’s only making 3.5 million he isn’t a cap dump and there’s been like 2 players lost to offersheets in the last decade. I saw the same posts about Lily it’s just none sense and a waste of time sandin isn’t going anywhere

Buyout Mrazek,Move Holl and kerfoot and you have 13 million

You are correct sir. In any case, the trade stays the same i think, as Detroit trades down on the pick but effectively gets a late 1st/early second in Sandin. Thank you for noting this.

Is he truly a 50 point center or was this just an outlier this year. He is usually a .5ppg player, and 50 points isn't that far above a ppg. Leafs could use the 5.5 million saved from signing Sandin and keeping Kerfoot to address the goaltending and package the second to dump Mrazek, freeing up more cap space to upgrade at center (Giroux maybe?).

Kerfoot had one 50 point season, His 2 best prior scoring was 43 and 42 points respectively. Calling Kerfoot a 50 point player is basically calling Tyler Bertuzzi a 60-70 point player.

and? He's gonna get between 1.2 and 1.8 aav and then the leafs have an extra 10% off season cushion to move space for everyone else. It's really very simple and easy to do

Leafs decline and call Detroits bluff on the offer sheet

Leafs are going to sign him. Leafs decline

What if Sandin doesn't want to sign, knowing he can get more with an offer sheet?

I know offer sheets are rare, which is why Shanny and Stevie would come to an agreement that benefits both clubs. This isn't like poaching a future 1D, this is trading for a top 4D (in the future).

I doubt this happens, cause liljegren only got 1.4

Unless Sandin waits for an offer sheet. There are half a dozen teams that could and should offer sheet him for 4M and it will only cost a 2nd. Toronto will need some cap gymnastics if Sandin signs for 4M somewhere. A team like Arizona or Detroit has zero issue eating the overpay for 3 years.

But, different cap situation for the Leafs this year. If anyone offer sheeted Liljgren the Leafs would either have bitten the bullet and matched or if the offer was over 4.2M they would take the 1st and 3rd.

except that pretty much never happens with rfas who arnt elite. These guys almost always sign well before they can be offer sheeted. And even if he did why would someone pay him twice what he is worth?

Also I'd rather just have Detroit's 2023 2nd than do this trade

Kotkaniemi.

And you pay Sandin because you can as he is top 54 with potential to be even better.

liljegren knew he could sign for more elsewhere. i had this conversation with a canucks fan about liljegren and him saying the exact same thing and he signed for 1.4, its not happening. sandins best buds are on the leafs, and he has a spot to play in next year. leafs decline

Kotkaniemi was basically revenge for the Aho offersheet and worked out terribly for both teams

Meh, Carolina signed him long term, and didn't need the picks. They got their 3rd line center who should grow to be super dependable and maybe 2C.

they gave up way too much in both picks and cash for a middling 3C, it worked out pretty bad for them unless KK suddenly becomes 2x the player he is

Dominant 3C take time. This is long term value. Think Jarnkrok, Jordan Staal, Danault, Draper, etc. If you get real lucky, they develop into Kessler.

then you pay them when they develop, you dont pay them before they do, especially when they have never shown the ability to be dominant in any way. And half of those guys were dominant right out of the gate, Hell, Staal 29 goals as an 18 year old

Staal is probably the worst example, but yeah I get that one. Thing is, sometimes that 3C costs too much (Gourde) and it gets cap difficult. I'd love a 3C at defensive 2C level for under 5M. Kk is gonna be a value contract in 1-2 years.