Trade confirmed: Toronto Maple Leafs - Vegas Golden Knights

Trade Details
Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire: 2022 3rd round pick (NYR - #95 - Nicholas Moldenhauer) 2022 5th round pick (CHI - #135 - Nikita Grebenkin) Sum: $0$0$0 Change: $0 Change: $0 Change: $0	Vegas Golden Knights Acquire: 2022 3rd round pick (WPG - #79 - Jordan Gustafson) Sum: $0$0$0 Change: $0 Change: $0 Change: $0

In this draft class, I think this is a fair deal.

Statistically speaking, after the first handful of players, draft picks are worth the inverse of their number. Given what Toronto got, they should have given up the 55th or 56th selection, so they "won" this trade.

I put "won" in quotes there, because it is close to a fair trade and either team could have messed up their picks.

Can you give me a source for this? It sounds right somehow but I'd like to see where the supporting data comes from.

Vegas just gave away a 5th for nothing. There is no statistical advantage from picking in the front half of round three over the back half. Although a 5th is less likely to reach the NHL than a third the reality is Vegas traded 2 lottery tickets for 1. I have noticed good GM"s never do these type of trades and rather wait there turn and draft who is top of there list in that moment.

The two picks going to Toronto add up in value to #86/87, using this value chart:

https://soundofhockey.com/2022/06/06/examining-the-value-of-nhl-draft-picks/



Instead, Toronto spends pick #79 on the two picks.

Kyle Dubas asleep at the wheel yet again

Vegas wins the trade.

This is...certainly a take.

A very bad take Jesus

As getting 2 prospects vs 1 is better

And besides knowing Vegas Gustafson will be traded for a guy Vegas will regret adding in about a year

It's a general principle and not a hard rule. It's called Zipf's law and it is wild how many places it works.

I wonder what happens when you take out the once-a-decade superstar who is know 3 years before the draft (and nobody would think about trading that #1 - except for the Leafs who blew a chance at Eric Lindros by doing this).

It's a separation of 21 spots and there is no leverage whatsoever to having the last pick in the draft.

That's all I can say about that.



According to the author of this article, he used every trade involving the swapping of draft picks in recent years to draw up the value chart.

I didn't see any harm in taking his word for it.

According to this chart, a #203 pick is worth 10X that of a #224 pick.



I think inversely with the square root of their number is more accurate.

Obviously Vegas wanted to move up when "their" guy was still available at "79". So Vegas thought it best to give up the two picks for lets says the player they had rated at "68"

Not saying the Leafs made a bad deal, but I think Dubas made the pick just to get another draft pick. It just thing the longer draft selection list looks better to some Leafs fans.

That would mean Toronto should have given up a 28th pick. That seems too high in the draft.

The relative value of the 1st pick and the 22nd pick is just under 5, while the relative value of the 203rd pick and the 224th pick is just over 10.

I'm not buying it.

Zipf's Law is more reasonable in my opinion.

( 1/ 95^2) + (1 / 135^2) = (1 / P^2). P = 78. 78th pick is equivalent to the 96 and 135.

How did I screw up that math? ... I did square root instead of squaring it.

Your correct. I wrote in incorrectly above and didn't even proof read since I thought I knew what I meant.